We have won 9 D1 games by an average of 8 points. Five of those wins were away from home.Average margin of victory was 9 points. 9.5 points seems reasonable.
Western Carolina has played 8 D1 games. Four of those games were on the road at Wake Forest, Florida State, Marquette, and Tennessee. The WF loss was by 13, the others were 30+. Their 3 losses to mid majors were by 13, 14, and 17. It has been two weeks since their last game against a D1 opponent, and that was at Tennessee. They have had plenty of time to practice and work for this game.
I expect a hard fought contest that WCU has been preparing for and looking forward to for weeks.