SOCON WEEK 12

[apaladin]

Mercer has locked up the SoCon champiinship and auto bid. If UTC wins the next 2 they likely get an at-large. They have Samford at home and then at Austi-Peay.
12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU the payback to FU season continues. ETSU a very very longshot at playoffs.
1:00. VMI @ WCU WCU can keep FU out of the cellar in a meaningless game.
1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive.
1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season for the first time since 2019. I like Citadel here.
2:00. MERCER @ ALABAMA MU catches Ala at a good time and Ala lacks a passing game so may be closer than ya think.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer has locked up the SoCon champiinship and auto bid. If UTC wins the next 2 they likely get an at-large. They have Samford at home and then at Austi-Peay.
12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU the payback to FU season continues. ETSU a very very longshot at playoffs.
1:00. VMI @ WCU WCU can keep FU out of the cellar in a meaningless game.
1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive.
1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season for the first time since 2019. I like Citadel here.
2:00. MERCER @ ALABAMA MU catches Ala at a good time and Ala lacks a passing game so may be closer than ya think.

THE REAL STORIES ARE…

Mercer has locked up, at least a share of, the SoCon Championship and auto bid.
If Mercer defeats Furman in Macon in 2 weeks, the Bears will win the Championship outright.
A Mercer loss to Furman means that WCU, ETSU, and/or Chattanooga could each also win A SHARE of the SoCon Championship, IF…
- Chattanooga defeats Samford next week AND/OR…
- ETSU defeats Furman AND VMI in the next 2 weeks AND/OR…
- WCU defeats VMI AND Samford in the next 2 weeks.

It’s the SoCon…nothing would be a surprise.

If UTC wins the next 2 they will receive an at-large. They have Samford at home and then at Austin Peay.

12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU - If ETSU wins out (impressively), they almost certainly will receive an at-large playoff bid. The Bucs’ shoulda-won game vs. #1 NDSU will hold a lot of sway with the Selection Committee. At present, they have only lost to an FBS and 1-score games to 2 certain & 1 highly probable FCS Playoff Teams; 2 of those possibly being seeded in the Top 4/Top 8. Their non-D1 win will hurt them, but less so in a 12 game season.

1:00. VMI @ WCU - WCU is holding out slim hopes that they can back into the Playoffs with a combination of winning out impressively in the next 2 weeks, a win over highly probable playoff Team (Chatt), narrow road losses to Playoff/possible highly seeded Mercer & possible Playoff ETSU, a strong (though losing performance) on the road to probable playoff / possible highly seeded Montana, AND a lot of help from several bad losses by (bubble-y) Teams Ranked in the 12-25 range. If they lose to VMI or Samford, they are definitely OUT. This will be Sr. Day for them and Coach Bell will have them sold that they will continue to have a shot at the Playoffs if they win BIG. FUBeAR expects the Catamounts to try to score 100 on the Keydets.

1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive.

1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season for the first time since 2019.

2:00. MERCER @ ALABAMA - Mercer rested at least 3 Offensive Starters at VMI. Their 4th Team RB had the most Rushing Attempts. The Bears substituted 3-deep vs. the usual 2-2.5 deep rotations on Defense from the 1st quarter on at VMI. If Mercer had nothing to play for in the weeks ahead, FUBeAR is certain they would play to try to win @ Bama. As they know they are already in the Playoffs and losing 63-3 to Bama will hurt them no worse than losing 35-14, FUBeAR will be very surprised if Coach Jacobs treats this like anything other than an exhibition game. ONLY Fully healthy Starters will start, and they will play several series. Liberal substitutions will begin after the 2nd series and FUBeAR would not expect to see any Mercer starters play after the 1st series of the 2nd half, when Mercer’s 2nd & 3rd Teamers will be seeing how they fare against Bama’s 3rd and 4th Teamers the rest of the way. Now, if chaos ensues and Mercer lucks into a 21-0 lead 4 minutes into the game, that plan could change, but doubtful. Mercer will be focused on trying to defeat Furman the following week, and getting healed up, without getting rusty - possibly during a bye week in the 1st round. President Underwood’s expectation is that Mercer needs to at least win a 2nd round game this year to build on last year’s 1st round win.

[Affirm]

Mercer has locked up the SoCon champiinship and auto bid. If UTC wins the next 2 they likely get an at-large. They have Samford at home and then at Austi-Peay.
12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU the payback to FU season continues. ETSU a very very longshot at playoffs.
1:00. VMI @ WCU WCU can keep FU out of the cellar in a meaningless game.
1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive.
1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season for the first time since 2019. I like Citadel here.
2:00. MERCER @ ALABAMA MU catches Ala at a good time and Ala lacks a passing game so may be closer than ya think.

THE REAL STORIES ARE…

Mercer has locked up, at least a share of, the SoCon Championship and auto bid.
If Mercer defeats Furman in Macon in 2 weeks, the Bears will win the Championship outright.
A Mercer loss to Furman means that WCU, ETSU, and/or Chattanooga could each also win A SHARE of the SoCon Championship, IF…
- Chattanooga defeats Samford next week AND/OR…
- ETSU defeats Furman AND VMI in the next 2 weeks AND/OR…
- WCU defeats VMI AND Samford in the next 2 weeks.

It’s the SoCon…nothing would be a surprise.

If UTC wins the next 2 they will receive an at-large. They have Samford at home and then at Austin Peay.

12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU - If ETSU wins out (impressively), they almost certainly will receive an at-large playoff bid. The Bucs’ shoulda-won game vs. #1 NDSU will hold a lot of sway with the Selection Committee. At present, they have only lost to an FBS and 1-score games to 2 certain & 1 highly probable FCS Playoff Teams; 2 of those possibly being seeded in the Top 4/Top 8. Their non-D1 win will hurt them, but less so in a 12 game season.

1:00. VMI @ WCU - WCU is holding out slim hopes that they can back into the Playoffs with a combination of winning out impressively in the next 2 weeks, a win over highly probable playoff Team (Chatt), narrow road losses to Playoff/possible highly seeded Mercer & possible Playoff ETSU, a strong (though losing performance) on the road to probable playoff / possible highly seeded Montana, AND a lot of help from several bad losses by (bubble-y) Teams Ranked in the 12-25 range. If they lose to VMI or Samford, they are definitely OUT. This will be Sr. Day for them and Coach Bell will have them sold that they will continue to have a shot at the Playoffs if they win BIG. FUBeAR expects the Catamounts to try to score 100 on the Keydets.

1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive.

1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season for the first time since 2019.

2:00. MERCER @ ALABAMA - Mercer rested at least 3 Offensive Starters at VMI. Their 4th Team RB had the most Rushing Attempts. The Bears substituted 3-deep vs. the usual 2-2.5 deep rotations on Defense from the 1st quarter on at VMI. If Mercer had nothing to play for in the weeks ahead, FUBeAR is certain they would play to try to win @ Bama. As they know they are already in the Playoffs and losing 63-3 to Bama will hurt them no worse than losing 35-14, FUBeAR will be very surprised if Coach Jacobs treats this like anything other than an exhibition game. ONLY Fully healthy Starters will start, and they will play several series. Liberal substitutions will begin after the 2nd series and FUBeAR would not expect to see any Mercer starters play after the 1st series of the 2nd half, when Mercer’s 2nd & 3rd Teamers will be seeing how they fare against Bama’s 3rd and 4th Teamers the rest of the way. Now, if chaos ensues and Mercer lucks into a 21-0 lead 4 minutes into the game, that plan could change, but doubtful. Mercer will be focused on trying to defeat Furman the following week, and getting healed up, without getting rusty - possibly during a bye week in the 1st round. President Underwood’s expectation is that Mercer needs to at least win a 2nd round game this year to build on last year’s 1st round win.

Well.

[apaladin]

FUBeAR- I agree with most of your thoughts but two. 1. MU will be sole champion as only FU stands in their way, ok not technically but take it to the bank. 2. WCU is doneso. They are last in the receiving votes list plus already 5 losses.

[apaladin]

Mercer has locked up the SoCon champiinship and auto bid. If UTC wins the next 2 they likely get an at-large. They have Samford at home and then at Austi-Peay.
12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU the payback to FU season continues. ETSU a very very longshot at playoffs.
1:00. VMI @ WCU WCU can keep FU out of the cellar in a meaningless game.
1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive.
1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season for the first time since 2019. I like Citadel here.
2:00. MERCER @ ALABAMA MU catches Ala at a good time and Ala lacks a passing game so may be closer than ya think.

Furman with the upset eliminates ETSU from playoffs.
Samford does the same to UTC
I was correct Citadel beats WC by 2 tds.
Mercer with a somewhat respectable loss to Alabama. Will carry the sole SoCon flag into the playoffs.

[FUwolfpacker]

So, is it tonight the ETSU AD starts complaining about the SoCon and threatens to leave or is that tomorrow?

Samford is hard to figure out. Strictly speaking from the conference perspective, UTC continues to disappoint. WCU will likely be haunted by a bad loss to Campbell and not being able to finish off the ETSU game. I’m normally sympathetic to WCU (had 2 cousins go there), but I must admit I have taken a little joy in their suffering the last two years based on some of their antics (players and twitter lunatic fringe).

Impressive turn arounds from Wofford, the Citadel, and ETSU compared to what they’ve looked like the last two years.

[cavedweller2]

Any chance we play the Samford game Nov 30 just for shits and giggles?

[gofurman]

Any chance we play the Samford game Nov 30 just for shits and giggles?

No inside knowledge but I doubt it. Wish we would. Every GAME with live reps is a learning experience. Win or lose.

[gman84]

Any chance we play the Samford game Nov 30 just for shits and giggles?

According to my sources…no.

[Flagman]

M
12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU. ETSU a very very longshot at playoffs. NOT ANYMORE

1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive. NOT

1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season. NOT

[gofurman]

M
12:00 FURMAN AT ETSU. ETSU a very very longshot at playoffs. NOT ANYMORE

1:30. SAMFORD @ UTC A must win for UTC to keep playoff hopes alive. NOT

1:30 CITADEL @ WOFFORD WC can secure a .500 season. NOT

Yep. Glad we beat ETSU!!!!!!! But wish the conference would get two teams in. UTC or who ever. It’s a bad look to be a one bid league. Hope Mercer goes two or three wins in playoffs.

I’ll be pulling for them in playoffs. Furman beats Mercer. Then Mercer wins 3 games in playoffs ! One bid league is what other leagues say about SoCon as a narrative.

[MidlandsPaladin]

Any chance we play the Samford game Nov 30 just for shits and giggles?

According to my sources…no.

A perk of not playing Samford…

With citadels win over woffy and our win over the Bucs, if we were somehow able to win down in Macon we will have 3 conference wins along with woffy and citadel. We would finish percentage points ahead of them both due to 1 less loss. I never would have thought a week ago that we could possibly finish sixth in the standings.

[apaladin]

Fact is the conference is down this year. The normal top dogs are all down this year. MU was the only one to take advantage of it and they have been very fortunate.