Scouting Samford

[gofurman]

Tormey may have been TE2 against William and Mary. It looked like he got popped on a pass breakup during the play before Pryor had his long catches. May have been knocked out of the game and Pryor inserted.

I'm also wondering if we may see more Gavin Hall this week. I think sometimes the biggest gap for young running backs is in pass protection, and having a freshman center, freshman QB, and freshman RB in the game at the same time may be a bit risky.

That’s a good point I hadn’t considered. Hall brings a different element to our run game. And one that can fitdifferent run plays better than other backs. However, if we play action that’s almost unheard of to have a TRUE FR QB. RFR Center and TRUE FR RB. otherwise we show our hand by switching RB personnel if we pass 70% of the time with elder Rb and run 70% with Hall. It’s tough when some players Rbs in this case aren’t experienced at each element of the game yet. The opposing D can take chances. “Hall is in let’s single cover and put an extra safety in the box”. Also, not saying he’s not ready, but does he catch much out of the backfield yet?

Speaking of throwing to the Rb. Haven’t seen a wheel route to a rb have we? Or did we during WM. Couldn’t watch that game

[gofurman]

A few thoughts on the Bulldogs:

1. We have generally had a pretty good game plan for how to deal with Samford's offense. It's been a long time since I've thought "we just can't stop these guys."

2. Furman has already faced two tempo air raid type offenses in Ole Miss and Stetson. So, that bodes well in our favor.

3. Crittendon has been around Samford a while. He's got decent numbers on the year passing with 212 ypg and 67% completions. It can be interesting to see that play out, though, because generally Samford's QBs have to hit higher numbers in that offense (they throw the ball around 80% of the time). Heirs the last two years was upwards of 272 ypg and 75% completions.

4. The third down conversion rate is not great for them at 36%. They've converted every 4th down attempt this season, though.

5. Interestingly, in three games they have attempted only 2 field goals and missed both of them.

6. I would call Crittendon a quarterback that can run as opposed to a "running" QB. He's got some wiggle. Crittendon is not as big as Darius Wilson at W&M, and Samford may not want him taking a bunch of hits with a lot of running plays. I still suspect their coaches won't pass up the opportunity given how rough Furman was last week at keeping limiting the QB run game. Furman's issue was not so much that it let Wilson out of the pocket, it's that they let him run straight ahead and our linebackers couldn't get off the block before he was buy us. Furman, again, will need to keep Samford's QB in the pocket, just need to do a better job of getting him on the ground.

7. Samford's offense is designed to get yards. They typically are not a stellar rushing team. They will pick up yards between the 20s, but what makes the difference against them is what you can do inside the 20s. It's like playing the option - you have to stay disciplined every play and force them to methodically drive the field. Don't let them get space and beat you on a deep ball.

They'll get some shots in. They always do. We've just gotta punch back.

I would usually agree. But as we said Ole Miss was like an NFL team and I’m not sure that game helped us as much as even a Clemson or a USC. would love a lower ACC like V T or Wake. When you are just crushed it can be demoralizing and you can do the right thing and the guy just blows right by. I really think we woulda learned more vs a mid level FBS vs dam OLE MISS. Then Stetson I’ll allow probably helps some but would a helped more if their starting QB played. We got them without their all everything QB. I think if CSU was a Samford O that woulda helped more than Ole Miss or Stetsn

[gofurman]

A few thoughts on the Bulldogs:

1. We have generally had a pretty good game plan for how to deal with Samford's offense. It's been a long time since I've thought "we just can't stop these guys."

2. Furman has already faced two tempo air raid type offenses in Ole Miss and Stetson. So, that bodes well in our favor.

3. Crittendon has been around Samford a while. He's got decent numbers on the year passing with 212 ypg and 67% completions. It can be interesting to see that play out, though, because generally Samford's QBs have to hit higher numbers in that offense (they throw the ball around 80% of the time). Heirs the last two years was upwards of 272 ypg and 75% completions.

4. The third down conversion rate is not great for them at 36%. They've converted every 4th down attempt this season, though.

5. Interestingly, in three games they have attempted only 2 field goals and missed both of them.

6. I would call Crittendon a quarterback that can run as opposed to a "running" QB. He's got some wiggle. Crittendon is not as big as Darius Wilson at W&M, and Samford may not want him taking a bunch of hits with a lot of running plays. I still suspect their coaches won't pass up the opportunity given how rough Furman was last week at keeping limiting the QB run game. Furman's issue was not so much that it let Wilson out of the pocket, it's that they let him run straight ahead and our linebackers couldn't get off the block before he was buy us. Furman, again, will need to keep Samford's QB in the pocket, just need to do a better job of getting him on the ground.

7. Samford's offense is designed to get yards. They typically are not a stellar rushing team. They will pick up yards between the 20s, but what makes the difference against them is what you can do inside the 20s. It's like playing the option - you have to stay disciplined every play and force them to methodically drive the field. Don't let them get space and beat you on a deep ball.

They'll get some shots in. They always do. We've just gotta punch back.

Pt 2. I would usually agree. And do some. But as we said Ole Miss was like an NFL team and I’m not sure that game helped us as much as even a Clemson or a USC. would love a lower ACC like V T or Wake. When you are just crushed it can be demoralizing and you can do the right thing and the guy just blows right by. I really think we woulda learned more vs a mid level FBS vs dam OLE MISS. Then Stetson I’ll allow probably helps some but would a helped more if their starting QB played. We got them without their all everything QB. I think if CSU was a Samford O that woulda helped more than Ole Miss or Stetsn


Pt 4. Yep. Teams that are passing based often struggle on 3rd down And inside the 20. Tough running teams are better when you need that third and two or first and goal at the 8

[The Jackal]

It will be different from a talent standpoint - Ole Miss has more talent, Stetson less - but playing against a tempo air raid offense takes coordination by the defense. It's better to have already played against those systems than not to have.

I don't believe passing instead of running has much to do with their third down conversion percentage. Last season, the two top 3rd down conversion teams in the SoCon were WCU and Samford, who were the conference's top two passing offenses.

[The Jackal]

Couple of other interesting data points:

- Furman, Wofford, Mercer, and UTC all have a higher per game passing yardage than Samford.

-- Furman, UTC, and Woffod have the lowest rushing yardage per game. Odd to see that from historically strong rushing offenses (of course, Furman and UTC also played arguable two of the nation's best FBS programs, which probably skews things slightly).

- Samford is last in SoCon in sacks and tackles for loss.

- Samford does not have a made field goal and is 4/5 on xtra points. They are last in punt average. Surprisingly, the sample size is pretty small meaning they do not appear to be in many situations where they are in kick scoring opportunities through three games. Hard to say whether kicking is a weak spot for them or whether sample size is just too small.

- Probably the most interesting stat to me to this point is Mercer's lack of touchbacks on kickoffs. Mercer has come out of the gates hot this season, but 26 of 27 kickoffs have been returnable (one went out of bounds). Furman, by contrast, has allowed only one returnable kick. Put another way, Mercer has surrendered 519 yards on returns to Furman's 25. I'm going to be interested to follow this, because the law of averages would dictate that, at some point, Mercer's going to get bitten by that in a big spot.

[gofurman]

Couple of other interesting data points:

- Furman, Wofford, Mercer, and UTC all have a higher per game passing yardage than Samford.

-- Furman, UTC, and Woffod have the lowest rushing yardage per game. Odd to see that from historically strong rushing offenses (of course, Furman and UTC also played arguable two of the nation's best FBS programs, which probably skews things slightly).

- Samford is last in SoCon in sacks and tackles for loss.

- Samford does not have a made field goal and is 4/5 on xtra points. They are last in punt average. Surprisingly, the sample size is pretty small meaning they do not appear to be in many situations where they are in kick scoring opportunities through three games. Hard to say whether kicking is a weak spot for them or whether sample size is just too small.

- Probably the most interesting stat to me to this point is Mercer's lack of touchbacks on kickoffs. Mercer has come out of the gates hot this season, but 26 of 27 kickoffs have been returnable (one went out of bounds). Furman, by contrast, has allowed only one returnable kick. Put another way, Mercer has surrendered 519 yards on returns to Furman's 25. I'm going to be interested to follow this, because the law of averages would dictate that, at some point, Mercer's going to get bitten by that in a big spot.

Points 1 and 2 are crazy - Furman and Woff with lots of passing and low rushing... Cats and Dogs sleeping together.

But I like point 3. That makes me feel better ... Need to see how people are rushing against them. Would like us to get near 4 per rush

[FUBeAR]

- Probably the most interesting stat to me to this point is Mercer's lack of touchbacks on kickoffs. Mercer has come out of the gates hot this season, but 26 of 27 kickoffs have been returnable (one went out of bounds). Furman, by contrast, has allowed only one returnable kick. Put another way, Mercer has surrendered 519 yards on returns to Furman's 25. I'm going to be interested to follow this, because the law of averages would dictate that, at some point, Mercer's going to get bitten by that in a big spot.

Yes - FUBeAR opined on this 2 weeks ago on AGS…

“- Kickoffs…not sure what Mercer is doing there, but the deepest kicks go to about the 15 yard line and they are right down the middle of the field. Nobody, past middle school, does that these days...”

Last year, Mercer’s Punting was Middle School level. This year, their All-Sun Belt, Marshall transfer, John McConnell, has been very much a weapon, and is at or near the top of the SoCon in almost all Punting metrics. Also, the Punt snaps have been accurate ropes. Last year, they shortened the Punters’ depth to 12 yards (from the standard 15) and the Long Snapper was still lobbing parabolas back there. This ineptitude in their Punting game “bit” them on numerous occasions in 2023.

If they don’t get their Kickoff guy to start kicking either deep or accurate (to the corners to cut off half the field in coverage) or, ideally, both, the Bears WILL get bit - just as Jackal has prophesied.

[FUATT]

Biggest scouting issue right now is whether or Samford can successfully travel through the storm to get to the game.

[gofurman]

Biggest scouting issue right now is whether or Samford can successfully travel through the storm to get to the game.

Valid Point but I lived through the absolute worst of Hugo - didn't think about that. We didn't have power for SIX weeks.. didn't attend High School for 7 weeks !! this in Atlanta is NOTHING compared to Hugo. NOTHING. In the bend of Florida... sure. I hope everyone there is safe !! But all they - Sammy - has to do is go north a little bit. This is piddly compared to Hugo. No one in Atlanta is gonna be out of school for 7 weeks. We didn't start back to school until November. We ate well - neighborhoods came together and we Grilled for the whole month as everything in the freezer was going bad

My father was National Guard and they couldn't get to the National Guard base for weeks... THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGHER STORM SURGE THAN HUGO ON THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. EVER.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... ngNewsSerp

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view ... ajaxserp=0

[The Jackal]

- Probably the most interesting stat to me to this point is Mercer's lack of touchbacks on kickoffs. Mercer has come out of the gates hot this season, but 26 of 27 kickoffs have been returnable (one went out of bounds). Furman, by contrast, has allowed only one returnable kick. Put another way, Mercer has surrendered 519 yards on returns to Furman's 25. I'm going to be interested to follow this, because the law of averages would dictate that, at some point, Mercer's going to get bitten by that in a big spot.

Yes - FUBeAR opined on this 2 weeks ago on AGS…

“- Kickoffs…not sure what Mercer is doing there, but the deepest kicks go to about the 15 yard line and they are right down the middle of the field. Nobody, past middle school, does that these days...”

Last year, Mercer’s Punting was Middle School level. This year, their All-Sun Belt, Marshall transfer, John McConnell, has been very much a weapon, and is at or near the top of the SoCon in almost all Punting metrics. Also, the Punt snaps have been accurate ropes. Last year, they shortened the Punters’ depth to 12 yards (from the standard 15) and the Long Snapper was still lobbing parabolas back there. This ineptitude in their Punting game “bit” them on numerous occasions in 2023.

If they don’t get their Kickoff guy to start kicking either deep or accurate (to the corners to cut off half the field in coverage) or, ideally, both, the Bears WILL get bit - just as Jackal has prophesied.

I was interested to watch William & Mary actually return one of Ian Williams' kicks on Saturday.

Being on Furman's kickoff team is a bit like being a Maytag Repair Man - there's just not a lot to do. Fortunately they kept composure and lane assignment and actually held the W&M returner to the 15 yard line.

So, Furman did 10 yards better by having someone actually return a kick.

[Roundball]

Biggest scouting issue right now is whether or Samford can successfully travel through the storm to get to the game.

Valid Point but I lived through the absolute worst of Hugo - didn't think about that. We didn't have power for SIX weeks.. didn't attend High School for 7 weeks !! this in Atlanta is NOTHING compared to Hugo. NOTHING. In the bend of Florida... sure. I hope everyone there is safe !! But all they - Sammy - has to do is go north a little bit. This is piddly compared to Hugo. No one in Atlanta is gonna be out of school for 7 weeks. We didn't start back to school until November. We ate well - neighborhoods came together and we Grilled for the whole month as everything in the freezer was going bad

My father was National Guard and they couldn't get to the National Guard base for weeks... THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGHER STORM SURGE THAN HUGO ON THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. EVER.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... ngNewsSerp

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view ... ajaxserp=0

The big issue with this storm is going to be power outages. This is going to be our storm of the century.

This ominous statement from the NWS speaks to how serious this storm is for our area.
"*URGENT MESSAGE* This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western
portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area."

[The Jackal]

I'm in West Central Georgia and plan on being up a good bit of the night. Overnight Hurricanes are their own brand of fun.

[apaladin]

Samford should have no problem with travel Friday afternoon.

[apaladin]

Dan’ preview:

[gofurman]

Biggest scouting issue right now is whether or Samford can successfully travel through the storm to get to the game.

Valid Point but I lived through the absolute worst of Hugo - didn't think about that. We didn't have power for SIX weeks.. didn't attend High School for 7 weeks !! this in Atlanta is NOTHING compared to Hugo. NOTHING. In the bend of Florida... sure. I hope everyone there is safe !! But all they - Sammy - has to do is go north a little bit. This is piddly compared to Hugo. No one in Atlanta is gonna be out of school for 7 weeks. We didn't start back to school until November. We ate well - neighborhoods came together and we Grilled for the whole month as everything in the freezer was going bad

My father was National Guard and they couldn't get to the National Guard base for weeks... THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGHER STORM SURGE THAN HUGO ON THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. EVER.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... ngNewsSerp

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view ... ajaxserp=0

The big issue with this storm is going to be power outages. This is going to be our storm of the century.

This ominous statement from the NWS speaks to how serious this storm is for our area.
"*URGENT MESSAGE* This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western
portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area."

First]. I WISH EVERYONE SAFETY. ESPECIALLY THISE IN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN GEORGIA

Stay safe. Do what is right for you.

I mean no offense. But after Hugo I literally have GONE to the beach (Pawleys Island) twice during an existing hurricane. Now these were - I admit -Just Category 1s. After Hugo it has to be a category 2 for me to really think of it as much.

So by Atlanta with category 1 … I mean I don’t exactly get the concern.

I see the ominous warning from GSP. “ this will be one of the most significant weather events in the modern era for western portions of the Carolinas”. I guess we will see. I just think for GSP and ATL north it’s not too much of an issue. Some trees. Some power. But not SIX WEEKS OF NO POWER. day or days maybe.

Those in Tallahassee and big bend area. ABSOLUTELY. BE SAFE
SOUTH AND WEST GEORGIA Some.

Maybe I still can’t get over the Jim Cantore bull from years back where he acted like he was blowing sideways on the street and some dudes were just walking behind him with no problem at all. Lol

The thing is the weather channel is great to help us with these things. Great. But the Weather Channel ALSO LOVES THESE DAMN STORMS. NOTHING CREATES RATINGS FOR THE WEATHER CHANNEL LIKE A MAJOR CRISIS. Weather channel “never waste a crisis !!!”

I MEAN NO OFFENSE. NONE.

Though “storm of the century”? Last time I heard that it snowed 3 inches.


Everyone stay safe !!!!!!