SoCon Title/Playoffs

[The Jackal]

At this point, we can start to make some connections in the SoCon title race and playoff positioning.

1. Furman (6-1, 4-0) - Remaining games: ETSU, @ UTC, VMI, @ Wofford

Furman is in the driver's seat. The math is simple - win out and gain an outright SoCon title. Even a loss and Furman will still take a share of the title.

2. WCU (5-2, 3-1) - Remaining games: Mercer, @ Wofford, ETSU, @ VMI

Like Furman, WCU has three of the "have nots" left. If they can dodge Mercer, it's hard to see the Catamounts finishing worse than second in the SoCon race, though they'll be pulling for Furman to lose every week.

3. UTC (6-2, 5-1) - Remaining games: @ VMI, Furman, @ Alabama

The Mocs, like WCU, need Furman to lose, but still have the ability to make that happen in terms of the SoCon race. Another loss, though, and they'll likely be out of the running. Whomever scheduled the Mocs to play Alabama at the end of the season and have a bye week after SoCon play concluded needs to be run out of town on a rail.

4. Mercer (5-3, 3-2) - Remaining games: @ WCU, @ the Citadel, Samford

It happens that a two loss team wins a share of the SoCon. Mercer would need to win out, have Furman lose two of their last four, and both WCU and UTC to lose again. Technically possible.

5. VMI (3-4, 2-2) - Remaining games: UTC, @ ETSU, @ Furman, WCU

Surprisingly, the Keydets still only have two SoCon losses. Admittedly, their two wins are against winless Wofford and the Citadel. They still have UTC, Furman, and WCU on the schedule, and while it seems highly unlikely the win out, they could potentially share the title if those three teams come unglued.

6-9: Not discussing. In 100 years, a three loss team has never won a share of the SoCon title. Seems incredibly unlikely

[Sad Din]

Beat ETSU!

[gofurman]

At this point, we can start to make some connections in the SoCon title race and playoff positioning.

1. Furman (6-1, 4-0) - Remaining games: ETSU, @ UTC, VMI, @ Wofford

Furman is in the driver's seat. The math is simple - win out and gain an outright SoCon title. Even a loss and Furman will still take a share of the title.

2. WCU (5-2, 3-1) - Remaining games: Mercer, @ Wofford, ETSU, @ VMI

Like Furman, WCU has three of the "have nots" left. If they can dodge Mercer, it's hard to see the Catamounts finishing worse than second in the SoCon race, though they'll be pulling for Furman to lose every week.

3. UTC (6-2, 5-1) - Remaining games: @ VMI, Furman, @ Alabama

The Mocs, like WCU, need Furman to lose, but still have the ability to make that happen in terms of the SoCon race. Another loss, though, and they'll likely be out of the running. Whomever scheduled the Mocs to play Alabama at the end of the season and have a bye week after SoCon play concluded needs to [u]be run out of town on a rail.[/u]

4. Mercer (5-3, 3-2) - Remaining games: @ WCU, @ the Citadel, Samford

It happens that a two loss team wins a share of the SoCon. Mercer would need to win out, have Furman lose two of their last four, and both WCU and UTC to lose again. Technically possible.

5. VMI (3-4, 2-2) - Remaining games: UTC, @ ETSU, @ Furman, WCU

Surprisingly, the Keydets still only have two SoCon losses. Admittedly, their two wins are against winless Wofford and the Citadel. They still have UTC, Furman, and WCU on the schedule, and while it seems highly unlikely the win out, they could potentially share the title if those three teams come unglued.

6-9: Not discussing. In 100 years, a three loss team has never won a share of the SoCon title. Seems incredibly unlikely

I see what you did there.

That said, all that matters is BEST ETSU

[The Jackal]

Playoffs are a little different consideration.

1. Furman is in good position for the SoCon auto bid.

Math is easy - win out, Furman is the SoCon autobid.

After that, two potential scenarios:
1. Lose to UTC and beat the three "have nots"
2. Beat UTC and get upset be a "have not"

Oddly enough, the second option might be better for Furman's auto-bid chances. Furman would lose to the weaker team, but would be 2-0 against UTC and WCU assuming all teams end up 7-1 in SoCon play. Furman would get the auto-bid.

If Furman were to lose to UTC, then Furman/WCU/UTC would all be 1-1 against the other two. They'd all be undefeated against the rest of the conference. At that point, it would go to points surrendered among the tied teams. Furman's in a good spot there having only surrendered 17 points to WCU. WCU/UTC put up 50+ on each other.

Of course, Furman would hold the tiebreaker over WCU if they are the only two team in the running.

2. WCU

Needs Furman to lose, preferably to UTC. There's not much the Catamounts can do about the point surrendered tie breaker as they've already played Furman and UTC. So, they'll be hoping for UTC to not only beat Furman, but blow them out. Tall order.

3. UTC

Has to beat Furman.

4. I haven't gone through all the potential scenarios, but VMI and Mercer may be mathematically alive for the auto-bid. It would probably take a completely bizarre set of circumstances for that to occur, though.

[FUBeAR]

Jackal sayeth…

4. Mercer (5-3, 3-2) - Remaining games: @ WCU, @ the Citadel, Samford

It happens that a two loss team wins a share of the SoCon. Mercer would need to win out, have Furman lose two of their last four, and both WCU and UTC to lose again. Technically possible.

Just to clarify - Don’t think that Mercer would need WCU to “lose again” if Mercer were to “win out.” Mercer winning out would give WCU their 2nd SoCon loss and Mercer would share the title if FU and UTC do as you described.

[apaladin]

3. UTC (6-2, 5-1) - Remaining games: @ VMI, Furman, @ Alabama

Whomever scheduled the Mocs to play Alabama at the end of the season and have a bye week after SoCon play concluded needs to be run out of town on a rail.
[/quote]
FU will be in a similar situation in 2025 when they will play Clempson the last game of the season but hopefully will have a better “bye” week than between SoCon play and CU. That is pretty poot scheduling on UTC’s part.

[The Jackal]

Say UTC finished strong for the playoffs. They then have a bye week, then Alabama, then get ready for an FCS playoff opponent. How do you gain any momentum there?

[FUwolfpacker]

I had forgotten that UTC finished with Alabama. If UTC doesn't beat Furman, then they're likely going to finish 7-4 (7-3 against the FCS) and much more in danger of missing the playoffs than I originally thought. Loss to UNA looking worse each week. Would wins over Mercer and a then ranked Samford (just like us) be enough to get in to the field? Mercer has to win out which will be tough with WCU and Samford still to go. If things go the way we expect, it's looking more likely to me that the SoCon may only get 2 teams in to the field. A 7-4 UTC may get in, but based on history it's iffy at best. If Furman loses to UTC and everything else goes the way we expect, I think the SoCon will likely safely have 3 teams but may miss out on a seed.

Obviously, we just care about Furman winning out.

[FUBeAR]

With the size of the bubble FUBeAR is projecting, ain’t no 7-4 SoCon Team gettin’ the slightest whiff of the Playoffs and FUBeAR would not be surprised to see an 8-3 SoCon Player eating his Thanksgiving turkey in his hometown.

It’s also possible, IFBO, if the Committee can find a way to justify (and they have a very particular set of justifying skills, skills they have acquired over their very long career, skills that make them a nightmare for SoCon Teams & Fans) making a 9-2 SoCon Team one of their “last 4 out,” they dang well will do it.

Finally, FUBeAR would not be surprised if we see a sudden outbreak of Covid or Beri Beri or Genital Warts among the bellhops, PorchYappers, and/or MountainPirates Football Teams causing them to cancel games (AKA Playoff-qualifying WINS for their opponents) out of an abundance of caution for the health, well-being, and wellness of their Student Athletes…causing, ultimately, a SoCon Team or 2 to lose any shot at the Playoffs or a High Seed.

It’s a perilous and treacherous road ahead, peeps. Buckle up!

[The Jackal]

Mercer likely has to beat Western Carolina to have a realistic shot at the post season. A loss there likely puts them as the SoCon #4 even at 7-4.

UTC probably has to beat Furman to get in. That North Alabama loss early in the season is going to haunt them.

I believe that if Furman wins out, they'll be a top 4 seed. I think Western Carolina could have a pretty good shot at a seed at 9-2, considering a lot of the usual peripheral seeded teams (like an undefeated Patriot league team or a 10-1 dominant Southland team) may not be there to suck up a bid.

I agree that the bubble is going to be a big one.

[FUwolfpacker]

Players just have to stay focused on going 1-0 each week…..but as Bear, Jackal, and Sam Herder said, bubble might be huge this year. Wouldn’t bet on a 7-4 SoCon team getting in as Bear mentioned. The UTC game could be an elimination game for them if the bubble is that big.

[The Jackal]

Any SoCon team left at 7-4 is playing with fire in terms of postseason selection.

[wcugrad95]

No 7-4 SOCON team has any shot in my opinion. As FUBeAR said, I wouldn't be feelilng real confident even at 8-3 unless you are a co-champ. IMO, the only way the league get's 3 in is if UTC beats you guys to finish at 8-3. If Mercer beats WCU, my bet is that might mean both teams miss (at best only 1 gets in).

My bet is Furman is 10-1 and seeded either 3rd (where you probalby should be) or 4th (where the committee may screw you). A 10-1 FU and a 9-2 WCU could both be seeded. A 9-2 FU, 9-2 WCU, and 8-3 UTC as co-champs probably means only 1 has a chance at the seed and it would be between #6-#8. An 8-3 WCU, 8-3 Mercer, and 7-4 UTC would mean a lot of anxious fans and an open invitation for the committee to do what it does best - leave SOCON teams out.

[The Jackal]

I think for the SoCon, the best bet is for Furman and WCU to keep winning.

That would give Furman a likely top 4 seed. WCU could potentially sneak in as a seeded team too. Both teams would be in a good position to make a run.

Of course, what will likely happen is regardless of game results, the SoCon will get two teams in and Western Carolina will play at Furman in the second round because there's no way we can permit two SoCon teams to do anything other than eliminate themselves in the second round.

[gman84]

I think for the SoCon, the best bet is for Furman and WCU to keep winning.

That would give Furman a likely top 4 seed. WCU could potentially sneak in as a seeded team too. Both teams would be in a good position to make a run.

Of course, what will likely happen is regardless of game results, the SoCon will get two teams in and Western Carolina will play at Furman in the second round because there's no way we can permit two SoCon teams to do anything other than eliminate themselves in the second round.

And of course use geography as the deciding factor. We wouldn't want a team from the Carolinas to travel to Texas or Delaware.