Samford

[The Jackal]

Another big game on Saturday.

Samford has had an up and down season. They started off with a big win over a bad D2 school, Shorter. After that, they suffered four consecutive defeats to Florida State, Mercer, Kennesaw State, and UTC. They then notched big wins over Western and VMI the last two weeks. All of their wins have been at home.

As is well documented, Samford's offense is a one-man band. Devlin Hodges is their bell cow. He is virtually impossible to stop completely, and will get his yards, however he's been far more turnover prone than in years' past. Hodges has already been picked 12 times this season after throwing only 11 all last year.

Defensively, they've had a lot of turnover. I think Furman will be able to move the ball on them.

The good news is the book on beating Samford is out there. Mercer, UTC, and KSU used largely the same defensive playbook and beat them three straight weeks. VMI and WCU don't have the defensive players to do that, and got into a track meet.

[Affirm]

There is so much optimism about our season due to having 2 wins. I expect that Samford will quickly bring us back to reality.
I am thankful that we finally got a win over Wofford.

[Flagman]

And that reality is that Furman is back! Devin Hodges, meet the Paladin defense.

[FUBeAR]

Samford was riding high after their massacre of, essentially, a HS Team (Shorter) & what they mentally & emotionally ‘recorded’ as a win over Florida State. They were overconfident & unprepared when Mercer went into ‘their house’ and thumped them, with Mercer’s R-FR QB outperforming Hodges. Mentally, with FSU’s horrid performances against Syracuse & VaTech wrapped around their game with Samford, Samford re-thought their ‘win’ at FSU and realized that 1/4 of the way into the season, they were (really) a winless Team. The emotional see-saw this caused for their Players & Coaching staff put them into a major funk, as as evident by their performances against Chattanooga & KSU. I’ve always seen Samford as an emotionally fragile Team because deep down inside they, themselves, know their ‘house of success’ is built upon shifting sands - lots of flash, stats, and swagger, but no running game and a hot & cold Defense. Running the Football effectively & playing consistent Defense are still the hallmarks of Championship Football Teams (See NDSU & Alabama) even in this era of spread offenses slingin’ it all over the field.

Playing their last 2 games against WCU (particularly with Adams hurt) & VMI have been just the salve their egos / emotions needed and, thus, they are in a much better ‘place’ now than when they sulked around in their Chatt & KSU’s games.

IMO, the keys to this game for a Furman win are...

1) Start FAST! Even if Samford gets the ball first and scores, Furman will make great strides by responding with a score of their own on their 1st series. Those “here we go again” doubts will creep into the heads of Samford & they will ‘press’ the next time they get the ball, quite probably leading to a turnover & a 2nd quick score by Furman. That will lead to more ‘pressing’ and more spiraling troubles for our ‘guests.’ Take away their very fragile belief in their ability to win this game.

2) COVER AND PLAY THE BALL - While stopping Samford’s weak, but possibly recently slightly improved run game is a ‘given,’ Furman’s DB’s and underneath coverage guys MUST quickly demonstrate that they are up to the challenge that Samford presents. Yes, Mercer (and maybe others) showed the ‘script’ on how to slow down Samford’s O, but the plan still must be executed. DB’s can’t blow coverages & they can’t just use their solid athletic ability to be in position to cover Samford’s outstanding Retrievers. They have to make plays on balls thrown their way. They must turn and play the football because Samford’s Retrievers are just as athletic and will find ways to catch the Football if they don’t.

3) Furman’s O has to continue CLICKING. I think we’ll be fine with winning this ‘key to victory,’ but if we’re not, for some reason, Samford’s O will find a way to make us pay for lapsing in this area...and that spiral I mentioned in #1 above could quickly twist the other way.

Bottom line - I think SUBSTANCE trumps style and the Paladins continue their winning ways.

[gofurman]

Samford was riding high after their massacre of, essentially, a HS Team (Shorter) & what they mentally & emotionally ‘recorded’ as a win over Florida State. They were overconfident & unprepared when Mercer went into ‘their house’ and thumped them, with Mercer’s R-FR QB outperforming Hodges. Mentally, with FSU’s horrid performances against Syracuse & VaTech wrapped around their game with Samford, Samford re-thought their ‘win’ at FSU and realized that 1/4 of the way into the season, they were (really) a winless Team. The emotional see-saw this caused for their Players & Coaching staff put them into a major funk, as as evident by their performances against Chattanooga & KSU. I’ve always seen Samford as an emotionally fragile Team because deep down inside they, themselves, know their ‘house of success’ is built upon shifting sands - lots of flash, stats, and swagger, but no running game and a hot & cold Defense. Running the Football effectively & playing consistent Defense are still the hallmarks of Championship Football Teams (See NDSU & Alabama) even in this era of spread offenses slingin’ it all over the field.

Playing their last 2 games against WCU (particularly with Adams hurt) & VMI have been just the salve their egos / emotions needed and, thus, they are in a much better ‘place’ now than when they sulked around in their Chatt & KSU’s games.

IMO, the keys to this game for a Furman win are...

1) Start FAST! Even if Samford gets the ball first and scores, Furman will make great strides by responding with a score of their own on their 1st series. Those “here we go again” doubts will creep into the heads of Samford & they will ‘press’ the next time they get the ball, quite probably leading to a turnover & a 2nd quick score by Furman. That will lead to more ‘pressing’ and more spiraling troubles for our ‘guests.’ Take away their very fragile belief in their ability to win this game.

2) COVER AND PLAY THE BALL - While stopping Samford’s weak, but possibly recently slightly improved run game is a ‘given,’ Furman’s DB’s and underneath coverage guys MUST quickly demonstrate that they are up to the challenge that Samford presents. Yes, Mercer (and maybe others) showed the ‘script’ on how to slow down Samford’s O, but the plan still must be executed. DB’s can’t blow coverages & they can’t just use their solid athletic ability to be in position to cover Samford’s outstanding Retrievers. They have to make plays on balls thrown their way. They must turn and play the football because Samford’s Retrievers are just as athletic and will find ways to catch the Football if they don’t.

3) Furman’s O has to continue CLICKING. I think we’ll be fine with winning this ‘key to victory,’ but if we’re not, for some reason, Samford’s O will find a way to make us pay for lapsing in this area...and that spiral I mentioned in #1 above could quickly twist the other way.

Bottom line - I think SUBSTANCE trumps style and the Paladins continue their winning ways.

Agree - especially on two points that concern me (serious fan, every game concerns me). But seroiusly I see Samford and Mercer as our two most dangerous opponents left .. and the evil that is playin' in Chucktown - not necessarily the team down there.

But the point is (as FUBeAR capitalized - COVER AND PLAY THE FREAKIN' BALL. We have yet to really show we can do that. ELon, second half ETSU w a good QB and WCU tore us up with the passing game. Tore us up. We had to outscore WCU... ETSU put up 23 points in a quarter and a half. and, well, ELon did whatever they wanted. Most concerning was the WCU game. Either WR were running free (blown assignment DB) or we didn't turn our head to see the ball. I have seen us play soft zone coverage etc. but never seen us look so bad in man coverage. We honestly looked far betta' vs CLemson. Seriously. At tigertown I felt we were in place and they just had athletes make great catches. That's fine. I understood that. But vs WCU concern crept in as I watched receivers running wide a open ... i mean wide. open.. And then when we were running with the receiver we didnt play the ball so it was either a catch by WCU or pass interference. CANNOT play like that vs Samford or we will lose. They are far better on D than WCU so we can't get in this shootout.

Unfortunately for us Samford is probably more confident now than 3 games ago (as are we). Wish they hadn't played WCU and VMI just prior to us

The key for me is always MATCHUPS .. they matter as much or more than talent. Wofford ran the plays we knew they would and our D proved they can stop the option ! And Woff was stymied when we went to throwing to backs out of the backfield. Matchup issue - that went in our favor. Feeling good about the Cit game ... Air-raid with Hodges and the 5'7 crazy receiver is a scary thought. IF we can beat Samford I will feel a lot better about the following games.

[FUBeAR]

Samford was riding high after their massacre of, essentially, a HS Team (Shorter) & what they mentally & emotionally ‘recorded’ as a win over Florida State. They were overconfident & unprepared when Mercer went into ‘their house’ and thumped them, with Mercer’s R-FR QB outperforming Hodges. Mentally, with FSU’s horrid performances against Syracuse & VaTech wrapped around their game with Samford, Samford re-thought their ‘win’ at FSU and realized that 1/4 of the way into the season, they were (really) a winless Team. The emotional see-saw this caused for their Players & Coaching staff put them into a major funk, as as evident by their performances against Chattanooga & KSU. I’ve always seen Samford as an emotionally fragile Team because deep down inside they, themselves, know their ‘house of success’ is built upon shifting sands - lots of flash, stats, and swagger, but no running game and a hot & cold Defense. Running the Football effectively & playing consistent Defense are still the hallmarks of Championship Football Teams (See NDSU & Alabama) even in this era of spread offenses slingin’ it all over the field.

Playing their last 2 games against WCU (particularly with Adams hurt) & VMI have been just the salve their egos / emotions needed and, thus, they are in a much better ‘place’ now than when they sulked around in their Chatt & KSU’s games.

IMO, the keys to this game for a Furman win are...

1) Start FAST! Even if Samford gets the ball first and scores, Furman will make great strides by responding with a score of their own on their 1st series. Those “here we go again” doubts will creep into the heads of Samford & they will ‘press’ the next time they get the ball, quite probably leading to a turnover & a 2nd quick score by Furman. That will lead to more ‘pressing’ and more spiraling troubles for our ‘guests.’ Take away their very fragile belief in their ability to win this game.

2) COVER AND PLAY THE BALL - While stopping Samford’s weak, but possibly recently slightly improved run game is a ‘given,’ Furman’s DB’s and underneath coverage guys MUST quickly demonstrate that they are up to the challenge that Samford presents. Yes, Mercer (and maybe others) showed the ‘script’ on how to slow down Samford’s O, but the plan still must be executed. DB’s can’t blow coverages & they can’t just use their solid athletic ability to be in position to cover Samford’s outstanding Retrievers. They have to make plays on balls thrown their way. They must turn and play the football because Samford’s Retrievers are just as athletic and will find ways to catch the Football if they don’t.

3) Furman’s O has to continue CLICKING. I think we’ll be fine with winning this ‘key to victory,’ but if we’re not, for some reason, Samford’s O will find a way to make us pay for lapsing in this area...and that spiral I mentioned in #1 above could quickly twist the other way.

Bottom line - I think SUBSTANCE trumps style and the Paladins continue their winning ways.

Either WR were running free (blown assignment DB) or we didn't turn our head to see the ball. I have seen us play soft zone coverage etc. but never seen us look so bad in man coverage. We honestly looked far betta' vs CLemson. Seriously. At tigertown I felt we were in place and they just had athletes make great catches. That's fine. I understood that. But vs WCU concern crept in as I watched receivers running wide a open ... i mean wide. open.. And then when we were running with the receiver we didnt play the ball so it was either a catch by WCU or pass interference. CANNOT play like that vs Samford or we will lose.

FU DB’s didn’t play the ball vs. Clemson either & Samford’s overall corps of Retrievers is equal to (or better than) Clemson’s with a QB that has demonstrated over 4 years that he is (at least) the equal of either that the Tiggers put on the field that day.

No blown coverages is a MUST, but just proving that you can run close to/with/beside the Retriever is NOT going to get the job done. DB’s MUST prevent the Retrievers from catching the Football.

[The Jackal]

I do not think Furman is as bad in pass defense as many seem to think we are.

Just my uninformed opinion, but I think a lot of our issues defending the pass have been the result of confusion, not inability. Those sorts of things are fixable and, having watched our defense stonewall Wofford Saturday, I'm encouraged that they are getting fixed.

[FUBeAR]

I do not think Furman is as bad in pass defense as many seem to think we are.

Just my uninformed opinion, but I think a lot of our issues defending the pass have been the result of confusion, not inability. Those sorts of things are fixable and, having watched our defense stonewall Wofford Saturday, I'm encouraged that they are getting fixed.

Certainly NOT “inability” / lack of talent. FU’s DB’s are abundantly talented.

Confusion, on occasion, & technique, way more frequently; have been the issues.

Wofford, in no way, presented the kind of passing game challenge that Samford does.

[The Jackal]

I do not think Furman is as bad in pass defense as many seem to think we are.

Just my uninformed opinion, but I think a lot of our issues defending the pass have been the result of confusion, not inability. Those sorts of things are fixable and, having watched our defense stonewall Wofford Saturday, I'm encouraged that they are getting fixed.

Certainly NOT “inability” / lack of talent. FU’s DB’s are abundantly talented.

Confusion, on occasion, & technique, way more frequently; have been the issues.

Wofford, in no way, presented the kind of passing game challenge that Samford does.

No question. My point was more that we were not particularly dominant against the run either up until Saturday, but have steadily improved each week.

I'm encouraged by the defensive line play in particular. Hodges is the best QB they've seen, but the Paladin front has been pretty good at getting back there and disrupting the passer.

Hodges will get his yards, but I expect he'll get hit a bunch and Furman will try to move him off where he feels most comfortable throwing.

[FUBeAR]

I do not think Furman is as bad in pass defense as many seem to think we are.

Just my uninformed opinion, but I think a lot of our issues defending the pass have been the result of confusion, not inability. Those sorts of things are fixable and, having watched our defense stonewall Wofford Saturday, I'm encouraged that they are getting fixed.

Certainly NOT “inability” / lack of talent. FU’s DB’s are abundantly talented.

Confusion, on occasion, & technique, way more frequently; have been the issues.

Wofford, in no way, presented the kind of passing game challenge that Samford does.

No question. My point was more that we were not particularly dominant against the run either up until Saturday, but have steadily improved each week.

I'm encouraged by the defensive line play in particular. Hodges is the best QB they've seen, but the Paladin front has been pretty good at getting back there and disrupting the passer.

Hodges will get his yards, but I expect he'll get hit a bunch and Furman will try to move him off where he feels most comfortable throwing.

I’ve changed my thinking on containing Hodges over the years. I think he is MOST comfortable when he’s extending plays with his excellent pocket presence and/or when full-on scrambling. He is almost as comfortable when he is able to get the ball out QUICK, like REALLY QUICK. I think he is least comfortable and least effective when he stands in the pocket for a while and then throws the ball on a ‘more traditional’ route. So, I think you, FIRST, don’t let him beat you with his legs (scrambling or running QB draw)...so a highly controlled pass rush with lane discipline is the way to go. Then, you have to limit their ‘Quick Game.’ The only way to do that is rush fewer people (hardly ever more than 4 & usually 3), walk OLB’s out more, play relatively tight (not necessarily “press” though) with your CB’s, bring your Safeties just a wee bit closer (depending on down/distance) to the LOS, get off /fight thru blocks, and TACKLE. DL has to think RUN 1st instead of PASS RUSH. This seems counterintuitive when playing Sanford, but somebody has to stop their ‘token’ (but swift) run game and with the OLB’s walked out a little more that has to get done primarily with your DL, supported by your ILB’s, who are also needing to drop and get underneath those pesky mesh routes.

Takes huge discipline and a willingness to accept giving up some yards and 1st downs to execute this plan, but it’s about winning the ‘war’in this case...might have to accept losing quite a few battles to do that...but as the saying goes...”Pick your battles.” In this case, though, you are picking the ones you are willing to lose.

[Jasper]

I do not think Furman is as bad in pass defense as many seem to think we are.

Just my uninformed opinion, but I think a lot of our issues defending the pass have been the result of confusion, not inability. Those sorts of things are fixable and, having watched our defense stonewall Wofford Saturday, I'm encouraged that they are getting fixed.

Certainly NOT “inability” / lack of talent. FU’s DB’s are abundantly talented.

Confusion, on occasion, & technique, way more frequently; have been the issues.

Wofford, in no way, presented the kind of passing game challenge that Samford does.

Absolutely correct on the Samford - Wofford comparison, BeAR. The Wofford QB could not throw well and Hodges certainly can. I also agree that the "confusion" part of pass defense failings thus far is fixable but I am really concerned about the technique. Playing against a guy who is going to throw 40-50 times a game is a great opportunity to pick a few off and maybe get some defensive points from the turnover. It appears to my unprofessional eye that our guys are not turning and going for the ball enough and are content to tackle the receiver after the catch. Samford obviously has some very fine receivers and the chances of dislodging a ball are not good. And it certainly would be helpful if our D line made Hodges uncomfortable in the pocket. The game could be a shootout with our revamped offensive production.

[The Jackal]

I do not think Furman is as bad in pass defense as many seem to think we are.

Just my uninformed opinion, but I think a lot of our issues defending the pass have been the result of confusion, not inability. Those sorts of things are fixable and, having watched our defense stonewall Wofford Saturday, I'm encouraged that they are getting fixed.

Certainly NOT “inability” / lack of talent. FU’s DB’s are abundantly talented.

Confusion, on occasion, & technique, way more frequently; have been the issues.

Wofford, in no way, presented the kind of passing game challenge that Samford does.

No question. My point was more that we were not particularly dominant against the run either up until Saturday, but have steadily improved each week.

I'm encouraged by the defensive line play in particular. Hodges is the best QB they've seen, but the Paladin front has been pretty good at getting back there and disrupting the passer.

Hodges will get his yards, but I expect he'll get hit a bunch and Furman will try to move him off where he feels most comfortable throwing.

I’ve changed my thinking on containing Hodges over the years. I think he is MOST comfortable when he’s extending plays with his excellent pocket presence and/or when full-on scrambling. He is almost as comfortable when he is able to get the ball out QUICK, like REALLY QUICK. I think he is least comfortable and least effective when he stands in the pocket for a while and then throws the ball on a ‘more traditional’ route. So, I think you, FIRST, don’t let him beat you with his legs (scrambling or running QB draw)...so a highly controlled pass rush with lane discipline is the way to go. Then, you have to limit their ‘Quick Game.’ The only way to do that is rush fewer people (hardly ever more than 4 & usually 3), walk OLB’s out more, play relatively tight (not necessarily “press” though) with your CB’s, bring your Safeties just a wee bit closer (depending on down/distance) to the LOS, get off /fight thru blocks, and TACKLE. DL has to think RUN 1st instead of PASS RUSH. This seems counterintuitive when playing Sanford, but somebody has to stop their ‘token’ (but swift) run game and with the OLB’s walked out a little more that has to get done primarily with your DL, supported by your ILB’s, who are also needing to drop and get underneath those pesky mesh routes.

Takes huge discipline and a willingness to accept giving up some yards and 1st downs to execute this plan, but it’s about winning the ‘war’in this case...might have to accept losing quite a few battles to do that...but as the saying goes...”Pick your battles.” In this case, though, you are picking the ones you are willing to lose.

In a way, Samford's offense is similar to Wofford's in that they are both ball-control offenses that require defensive discipline to combat. Samford just does it throwing and Wofford does it running.

I agree with you on Hodges. He is really good at getting outside the pocket and not necessarily looking to run, but keeping plays alive while his receivers work to get open. I think Kennesaw State did a marvelous job against them in keeping with Samford receivers and forcing Hodges to run out of room.

As I see Samford's offense, the worst thing a defense can do is give up the downfield ball or miss tackles. Air raid teams have to have space to operate, and the closer they get to the goalline, the tougher it gets for them as defenses no longer have to defend vertical routes. I think Samford is far more dangerous from the 20 than they are from the 7.

I think a defense has to keep the Bulldogs in front of them, come up, and make tackles. Recognize that you cannot stop Hodges from completing passes, but can limit the damage once a receiver catches it. Always look for turnover opportunities and as the field constricts, play more physically. Like playing the option, it takes a lot of discipline.

[Paul C]

One defensive player I'm going to be watching on every snap is Adrian Hope. This is a chance for him to be a game changer.

Also interested to see how much we blitz. I'd hate to see us overdo the blitzing and give up big plays...rather see us rush 4, keep him in the pocket and make him check down. Even if it does mean we give up alot of yards, these offenses can bog down in the red zone when they back line of the end zone becomes an extra defender.

One wild card, the forecast for Sat is 90% chance of rain.....FUBear had some interesting correlation of Samford winning percentage when the weather was poor.....

[gofurman]

One defensive player I'm going to be watching on every snap is Adrian Hope. This is a chance for him to be a game changer.

Also interested to see how much we blitz. I'd hate to see us overdo the blitzing and give up big plays...rather see us rush 4, keep him in the pocket and make him check down. Even if it does mean we give up alot of yards, these offenses can bog down in the red zone when they back line of the end zone becomes an extra defender.

One wild card, the forecast for Sat is 90% chance of rain.....FUBear had some interesting correlation of Samford winning percentage when the weather was poor.....

Hope you are right. pun not intended... seroiusly - I want to win this game bad.. though FUBeAR keeps up about as much as anyone and is appears he is saying it's not a great thing to blitz this heavy passing team. Which, on the surface, appears counter intuitive. But appears FUBeAR is saying if you blitz them it can turn against you more than most teams. IE, BeAR said you want to only rush 3 most of the time (maybe 4). Rushing 3 would eliminate Hope.

From FUBeAR - "DL has to think RUN 1st instead of PASS RUSH. This seems counterintuitive when playing Sanford, but somebody has to stop their ‘token’ (but swift) run game and with the OLB’s walked out a little more that has to get done primarily with your DL, supported by your ILB’s, who are also needing to drop and get underneath those pesky mesh routes." I realize that Hope is a LB. I certainly hope we win and he has 3 sacks / FF but this game worries me. Well, they all do. lol

THis is my basic take stolen from above:

" Certainly NOT “inability” / lack of talent. FU’s DB’s are abundantly talented.

Confusion, on occasion, & technique, way more frequently; have been the issues.

Wofford, in no way, presented the kind of passing game challenge that Samford does. "

[FUBeAR]

One defensive player I'm going to be watching on every snap is Adrian Hope. This is a chance for him to be a game changer.

Also interested to see how much we blitz. I'd hate to see us overdo the blitzing and give up big plays...rather see us rush 4, keep him in the pocket and make him check down. Even if it does mean we give up alot of yards, these offenses can bog down in the red zone when they back line of the end zone becomes an extra defender.

One wild card, the forecast for Sat is 90% chance of rain.....FUBear had some interesting correlation of Samford winning percentage when the weather was poor.....

Hope you are right. pun not intended... seroiusly - I want to win this game bad.. though FUBeAR keeps up about as much as anyone and is appears he is saying it's not a great thing to blitz this heavy passing team. Which, on the surface, appears counter intuitive. But appears FUBeAR is saying if you blitz them it can turn against you more than most teams. IE, BeAR said you want to only rush 3 most of the time (maybe 4). Rushing 3 would eliminate Hope.

From FUBeAR - "DL has to think RUN 1st instead of PASS RUSH. This seems counterintuitive when playing Sanford, but somebody has to stop their ‘token’ (but swift) run game and with the OLB’s walked out a little more that has to get done primarily with your DL, supported by your ILB’s, who are also needing to drop and get underneath those pesky mesh routes." I realize that Hope is a LB. I certainly hope we win and he has 3 sacks. FF but this game worries me. Well, they all do.

Great Coaches fully understand the talents that each Player possesses (as well as their liabilities). Then they put each of those Players in the best possible position to leverage their talents and minimize the impact of their liabilities. Then, they mix that up into a stew of a Team & build gameplans around those things. Pretty sure our most recent SoCon Player of the Week has been the beneficiary of such great Coaching. And Furman’s Team has been the beneficiary of his Talents and the precise deployment of those talents. Kind of a round-about way of saying that I’m quite confident that Coach Hendrix, Coach Staggs, and the Defensive staff are fully aware of Mr. Hope’s particular set of skills and that they will put him in a position to utilize those skills in a way that provides optimal benefit to the game plan they will deploy against Samford’s Offense. Many different ways to get to that...Of course rushing 4 can put him in a rush technique without doing anything fancy AND I didn’t say only rush 3 EVERY play. Also, Zone Blitzes often drop a DLman into coverage & rush LB’s (or even DB’s)...so, without an alignment change, the Dins can still rush only 3, which could include Hope, with, say, Reid dropping in coverage in the middle.

You shouldn’t worry so much. The ‘force’ is strong in the Paladin Football Brain Trust. They got this!