Win-loss

[stonemd]

How many games do we win this year (ignoring all the play-off wins)?
Show your work --

[apaladin]

8-3
W's- Colgate, ETSU, WCU, Woffy, Citadel, Chatty, VMI, Mercer
L's- Clempson, Elon, Sammy

May be a little optimistic.

[Paul C]

8-3
W's- Colgate, ETSU, WCU, Woffy, Citadel, Chatty, VMI, Mercer
L's- Clempson, Elon, Sammy

May be a little optimistic.

I'm impressed, ap And I basically agree....

I always like to look at it this way, the record and the chance we finish there:

11-0 - 0%
10-1 - 5%
9-2 - 15%
8-3 - 35%
7-4 - 25%
6-5 - 15%
5-6 or worse - 5%

[AstroDin]

Granted Furman has two tough road games out of the gate… Elon is a toss-up.
I guess my wonder is with a perfect SoCon setup of home games can we pull off wins against;
Wofford, WCU, Samford, and Chattanooga. I think Furman has a very good chance of winning all five away games.

Then you have the away conference games — one game will again be a battle — Mercer. My prediction is Mercer will trip the Dins up from going undefeated. I would rather be wrong.

The future is bright for our Paladins… I think 2018 will be another step in the right direction… 9-2 0r 8-3.

2019… there will be a new Sheriff in town for the SoCon and that Sheriff will have a diamond badge

[The Jackal]

9-2. Because I'm an optimist.

@ Clemson - loss. Tough draw for our boys, but I believe we'll give em a fight.
@ Elon - win. Furman played Elon twice last year, and was the better team both times. Both games were sloppy, and Furman all but spotted Elon three touchdowns in the first contest.
Colgate: win. We've seen Colgate three times the last few years and Furman has manhandled them each time. I don't see why this year would be different.
@ETSU: win. This one is a little concerning because ETSU has some sneaky talent. Still, we have beaten the stuffing out of the Bucs the last two seasons. They don't match up well against us.
WCU: win. The Cats are talented, but their defense didn't like playing our physical offense one single bit last year. In clear conditions, this will be closer than last year's contest, but I don't think WCU's finesse game is going to help them against a physical Furman team.
Wofford: win. Terriers were a hair better than we were last year, lost a bunch of players, most of their coaching staff, and the game is in Greenville.
Samford: loss. I don't think we will make it through the conference slate undefeated, and Samford is likely the best SoCon team we will see. Still, we were a couple inches and a bad call from beating them in Birmingham last season.
@Cit: win. Bulldogs have to show me a lot more than they did last year. I know the game is in Charleston, but we beat them mercilessly last year.
UTC: win. I expect the Mocs to be better, but they had huge issues on the OL and an abysmal rushing attack.
@VMI: win. I fully anticipate that VMI will be the worst SoCon team we've seen in decades.
@Mercer: win. Tough team on the road, and most of the contests have been tight. I think Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year.

[FUBeAR]

@Mercer: win. Tough team on the road, and most of the contests have been tight. I think Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year.

Not sure which 2 you mean. Assuming you are not referring to any OLinemen, Mercer only graduated WR’s Avery Ward & Chandler Curtis, along with RB Alex Lakes from last year’s Offense. Lakes only had 1 carry vs. FU last year & Ward only had 1 catch. Chandler Curtis had a big day (statistically) with 11 catches for 112 yards, but his long reception was only 26 yards. None of those 3 scored.

Kaelan Riley (QB), Tee Mitchell (RB), & CJ Leggett (RB) who combined for 28 rushing attempts for 158 yards & 2 TD, along with 4 catches for 23 yards, are all returning. Riley also was 26-34 for 289 yards and 1 TD passing,

Marquise Irvin (WR) and Sam Walker (TE) who combined for 9 catches, 132 yards, and 1 TD are both returning.

Mercer will miss Ward & Curtis (though not nearly as much as I thought they would miss him after his amazing FR year) & they would miss Lakes if they had used him last year. He only got a few carries in most games though his YPC was the best on the Team

From what I’ve seen, they have more than adequate talent at WR & RB to effectively replace Curtis, Ward, and Lakes.

[fufanatic]

Hard to make much of a prediction without knowing how the QB play will be, but assuming it's at least adequate and improved play elsewhere helps offset any loss at the position in experience or talent from Blaze graduating, I would think somewhere between 7-4 and 9-2 and playoffs seem fair and certainly realistic. Really think we need to win that Elon game ... while we proved last year you can start rough and still have a successful season, I don't want to risk it two seasons in a row. 0-2 puts you in a tough spot to start the year. @ Citadel and @ Mercer look challenging on the road. Would be disappointing to lose a home game, but tough slate so you never know. Western, Wofford and Samford back-to-back is no picnic.

[The Jackal]

@Mercer: win. Tough team on the road, and most of the contests have been tight. I think Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year.

Not sure which 2 you mean. Assuming you are not referring to any OLinemen, Mercer only graduated WR’s Avery Ward & Chandler Curtis, along with RB Alex Lakes from last year’s Offense. Lakes only had 1 carry vs. FU last year & Ward only had 1 catch. Chandler Curtis had a big day (statistically) with 11 catches for 112 yards, but his long reception was only 26 yards. None of those 3 scored.

Kaelan Riley (QB), Tee Mitchell (RB), & CJ Leggett (RB) who combined for 28 rushing attempts for 158 yards & 2 TD, along with 4 catches for 23 yards, are all returning. Riley also was 26-34 for 289 yards and 1 TD passing,

Marquise Irvin (WR) and Sam Walker (TE) who combined for 9 catches, 132 yards, and 1 TD are both returning.

Mercer will miss Ward & Curtis (though not nearly as much as I thought they would miss him after his amazing FR year) & they would miss Lakes if they had used him last year. He only got a few carries in most games though his YPC was the best on the Team

From what I’ve seen, they have more than adequate talent at WR & RB to effectively replace Curtis, Ward, and Lakes.

Yes, I am referring to Curtis and Ward.

My position is always one of "show me." Every team worth their salt has a next man up philosophy, but it is not a given that those next men up will simply replace really productive players. That goes for every team, Furman included. Furman has their own question marks to deal with too.

Furman either struggled to defend or willingly allowed Mercer to throw a lot of little tunnel screens to Curtis. He's a tough matchup for defenses and was one of the more slippery receivers in the league.

Now, I don't look at any single player in an isolated vacuum. Is Marquis Irvin a playmaker? Absolutely. Did he benefit from two other talented receivers on the field drawing coverage? Probably. Did Riley benefit from having a slippery receiver like Curtis working close to the line of scrimmage? I imagine.

At bottom, Mercer is going to likely have to turn to little used reserves to replace roughly 1/3 of their catches off a team that throws the ball quite a bit. That's not everything, of course, but it's also not nothing.

Again, this analysis isn't just applicable to Mercer. It applies to everyone. Furman has question marks too.

[The Jackal]

Hard to make much of a prediction without knowing how the QB play will be, but assuming it's at least adequate and improved play elsewhere helps offset any loss at the position in experience or talent from Blaze graduating, I would think somewhere between 7-4 and 9-2 and playoffs seem fair and certainly realistic. Really think we need to win that Elon game ... while we proved last year you can start rough and still have a successful season, I don't want to risk it two seasons in a row. 0-2 puts you in a tough spot to start the year. @ Citadel and @ Mercer look challenging on the road. Would be disappointing to lose a home game, but tough slate so you never know. Western, Wofford and Samford back-to-back is no picnic.

Personal opinion here.

This offense deemphasizes the QB significantly more than other offenses. Samford, for instance, runs their entire offense through Devlin Hodges. Furman really needs more of a "game manager" type and not a guy out there making highlight reel plays every day.

Just look at the maturation of Blazejowski in a single season under this new coaching staff. He went from an athletic and gifted QB who was often very careless with the ball to playing a mobile-yet-controlled style where he was asked to protect the ball, make high percentage throws, and do his job (which often includes carrying out fakes).

I saw this on Twitter yesterday, actually. It purports to be Hamp Sisson, working on RPO throws this summer. That's what, a 25 yard flat footed throw on a dime? The fact that he is working on RPOs also suggests that you may see some new wrinkles in a George Quarles offense, as he relied heavily on RPO at Maryville.

Long story short, good OL play and a strong running game is going to make most QBs look pretty good. I expect we will have the former, which will by default help the running game, and subsequently the QB. You have two veteran options this season that have been in the "system" now for two years. You have a couple of really talented freshmen that could compete. If we ran Samford's offense, I'd be a little concerned. With our offense, I think there is going to be plenty of talent surrounding whomever is QB we shouldn't notice too much of a hiccup.

[The Jackal]

Not 100% certain, but that Sisson video above looks to be working a play similar to this one.

If Furman can run this type of stuff along with a strong downhill game with big power backs, I believe we are going to be tough on offense.

[FUBeAR]

@Mercer: win. Tough team on the road, and most of the contests have been tight. I think Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year.

Not sure which 2 you mean. Assuming you are not referring to any OLinemen, Mercer only graduated WR’s Avery Ward & Chandler Curtis, along with RB Alex Lakes from last year’s Offense. Lakes only had 1 carry vs. FU last year & Ward only had 1 catch. Chandler Curtis had a big day (statistically) with 11 catches for 112 yards, but his long reception was only 26 yards. None of those 3 scored.

Kaelan Riley (QB), Tee Mitchell (RB), & CJ Leggett (RB) who combined for 28 rushing attempts for 158 yards & 2 TD, along with 4 catches for 23 yards, are all returning. Riley also was 26-34 for 289 yards and 1 TD passing,

Marquise Irvin (WR) and Sam Walker (TE) who combined for 9 catches, 132 yards, and 1 TD are both returning.

Mercer will miss Ward & Curtis (though not nearly as much as I thought they would miss him after his amazing FR year) & they would miss Lakes if they had used him last year. He only got a few carries in most games though his YPC was the best on the Team

From what I’ve seen, they have more than adequate talent at WR & RB to effectively replace Curtis, Ward, and Lakes.

Yes, I am referring to Curtis and Ward.

My position is always one of "show me." Every team worth their salt has a next man up philosophy, but it is not a given that those next men up will simply replace really productive players. That goes for every team, Furman included. Furman has their own question marks to deal with too.

Furman either struggled to defend or willingly allowed Mercer to throw a lot of little tunnel screens to Curtis. He's a tough matchup for defenses and was one of the more slippery receivers in the league.

Now, I don't look at any single player in an isolated vacuum. Is Marquis Irvin a playmaker? Absolutely. Did he benefit from two other talented receivers on the field drawing coverage? Probably. Did Riley benefit from having a slippery receiver like Curtis working close to the line of scrimmage? I imagine.

At bottom, Mercer is going to likely have to turn to little used reserves to replace roughly 1/3 of their catches off a team that throws the ball quite a bit. That's not everything, of course, but it's also not nothing.

Again, this analysis isn't just applicable to Mercer. It applies to everyone. Furman has question marks too.

OK...well, you initially (and incorrectly (hard to describe giving up 1 catch to a guy as “struggled”)) stated, “Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year,” when the fact of the matter is...

5 of the 6 Mercer Players who threw, ran, and/or caught the ball in that game last year, for any substantial frequency/yards & ANY scores, are returning in 2018.

I think that is a much more accurately reflective statement about what Mercer is returning on Offense in 2018 than your initial characterization would mislead others to believe.

[The Jackal]

@Mercer: win. Tough team on the road, and most of the contests have been tight. I think Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year.

Not sure which 2 you mean. Assuming you are not referring to any OLinemen, Mercer only graduated WR’s Avery Ward & Chandler Curtis, along with RB Alex Lakes from last year’s Offense. Lakes only had 1 carry vs. FU last year & Ward only had 1 catch. Chandler Curtis had a big day (statistically) with 11 catches for 112 yards, but his long reception was only 26 yards. None of those 3 scored.

Kaelan Riley (QB), Tee Mitchell (RB), & CJ Leggett (RB) who combined for 28 rushing attempts for 158 yards & 2 TD, along with 4 catches for 23 yards, are all returning. Riley also was 26-34 for 289 yards and 1 TD passing,

Marquise Irvin (WR) and Sam Walker (TE) who combined for 9 catches, 132 yards, and 1 TD are both returning.

Mercer will miss Ward & Curtis (though not nearly as much as I thought they would miss him after his amazing FR year) & they would miss Lakes if they had used him last year. He only got a few carries in most games though his YPC was the best on the Team

From what I’ve seen, they have more than adequate talent at WR & RB to effectively replace Curtis, Ward, and Lakes.

Yes, I am referring to Curtis and Ward.

My position is always one of "show me." Every team worth their salt has a next man up philosophy, but it is not a given that those next men up will simply replace really productive players. That goes for every team, Furman included. Furman has their own question marks to deal with too.

Furman either struggled to defend or willingly allowed Mercer to throw a lot of little tunnel screens to Curtis. He's a tough matchup for defenses and was one of the more slippery receivers in the league.

Now, I don't look at any single player in an isolated vacuum. Is Marquis Irvin a playmaker? Absolutely. Did he benefit from two other talented receivers on the field drawing coverage? Probably. Did Riley benefit from having a slippery receiver like Curtis working close to the line of scrimmage? I imagine.

At bottom, Mercer is going to likely have to turn to little used reserves to replace roughly 1/3 of their catches off a team that throws the ball quite a bit. That's not everything, of course, but it's also not nothing.

Again, this analysis isn't just applicable to Mercer. It applies to everyone. Furman has question marks too.

OK...well, you initially (and incorrectly (hard to describe giving up 1 catch to a guy as “struggled”)) stated, “Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year,” when the fact of the matter is...

5 of the 6 Mercer Players who threw, ran, and/or caught the ball in that game last year, for any substantial frequency/yards & ANY scores, are returning in 2018.

I think that is a much more accurately reflective statement about what Mercer is returning on Offense in 2018 than your initial characterization would mislead others to believe.

Let's put it this way. I think Mercer lost some key players on offense that were more critical to the overall success of their offense than would purely show on a single game stat sheet. They had the second best receiving corps in the league (in my opinion) and will end up having to replace a large portion of their receiving yards with players that have seen very little of the field and are, at this juncture, untested.

Mercer wasn't exactly a stellar offensive team last year (statistically middle of the pack), and they graduate much of what I considered their single biggest offensive advantage. Few teams could match up with their receiving corps.

Bottom line, as I sit here in June I think Furman wins the matchup. I think the one significant advantage Mercer had against Furman in 2017 (their receiving corps) is no longer that significant of an advantage. In fact, I think Furman will probably present one of the best defensive backfields Mercer will see next season. I'm not suggesting Mercer won't be a talented team. They will be. I'm just suggesting that their biggest advantage over Furman won't be as significant.

[Davemeister]

I'm not an optimist, so I'm going to say 7-4. Losses to Clemson, Samford, and a couple of games which we probably should win - but won't.

[FUBeAR]

@Mercer: win. Tough team on the road, and most of the contests have been tight. I think Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year.

Not sure which 2 you mean. Assuming you are not referring to any OLinemen, Mercer only graduated WR’s Avery Ward & Chandler Curtis, along with RB Alex Lakes from last year’s Offense. Lakes only had 1 carry vs. FU last year & Ward only had 1 catch. Chandler Curtis had a big day (statistically) with 11 catches for 112 yards, but his long reception was only 26 yards. None of those 3 scored.

Kaelan Riley (QB), Tee Mitchell (RB), & CJ Leggett (RB) who combined for 28 rushing attempts for 158 yards & 2 TD, along with 4 catches for 23 yards, are all returning. Riley also was 26-34 for 289 yards and 1 TD passing,

Marquise Irvin (WR) and Sam Walker (TE) who combined for 9 catches, 132 yards, and 1 TD are both returning.

Mercer will miss Ward & Curtis (though not nearly as much as I thought they would miss him after his amazing FR year) & they would miss Lakes if they had used him last year. He only got a few carries in most games though his YPC was the best on the Team

From what I’ve seen, they have more than adequate talent at WR & RB to effectively replace Curtis, Ward, and Lakes.

Yes, I am referring to Curtis and Ward.

My position is always one of "show me." Every team worth their salt has a next man up philosophy, but it is not a given that those next men up will simply replace really productive players. That goes for every team, Furman included. Furman has their own question marks to deal with too.

Furman either struggled to defend or willingly allowed Mercer to throw a lot of little tunnel screens to Curtis. He's a tough matchup for defenses and was one of the more slippery receivers in the league.

Now, I don't look at any single player in an isolated vacuum. Is Marquis Irvin a playmaker? Absolutely. Did he benefit from two other talented receivers on the field drawing coverage? Probably. Did Riley benefit from having a slippery receiver like Curtis working close to the line of scrimmage? I imagine.

At bottom, Mercer is going to likely have to turn to little used reserves to replace roughly 1/3 of their catches off a team that throws the ball quite a bit. That's not everything, of course, but it's also not nothing.

Again, this analysis isn't just applicable to Mercer. It applies to everyone. Furman has question marks too.

OK...well, you initially (and incorrectly (hard to describe giving up 1 catch to a guy as “struggled”)) stated, “Mercer graduated two of their best offensive players who we struggled with last year,” when the fact of the matter is...

5 of the 6 Mercer Players who threw, ran, and/or caught the ball in that game last year, for any substantial frequency/yards & ANY scores, are returning in 2018.

I think that is a much more accurately reflective statement about what Mercer is returning on Offense in 2018 than your initial characterization would mislead others to believe.

Let's put it this way. I think Mercer lost some key players on offense that were more critical to the overall success of their offense than would purely show on a single game stat sheet. They had the second best receiving corps in the league (in my opinion) and will end up having to replace a large portion of their receiving yards with players that have seen very little of the field and are, at this juncture, untested.

Mercer wasn't exactly a stellar offensive team last year (statistically middle of the pack), and they graduate much of what I considered their single biggest offensive advantage. Few teams could match up with their receiving corps.

Bottom line, as I sit here in June I think Furman wins the matchup. I think the one significant advantage Mercer had against Furman in 2017 (their receiving corps) is no longer that significant of an advantage. In fact, I think Furman will probably present one of the best defensive backfields Mercer will see next season. I'm not suggesting Mercer won't be a talented team. They will be. I'm just suggesting that their biggest advantage over Furman won't be as significant.

Ugh...you had it right earlier. They will lose about 1/3 of their Receiving yards/catches/TD’s with the loss of Curtis & Ward. Now, I wouldn’t call that a “large portion,” but let’s ‘go to the tape’ & see...

SoCon & Overall FCS Lost receiving Yards...
1. WCU 72%
2. Furman 49%
3. Chattanooga 43%
4. Wofford 36%
5. Mercer 36%
6. FCS Average 35%
7. The Citadel 32%
8. ETSU 20%
9. VMI 15%
10. Samford 8% (dammit!)

So...right there in the middle; about average. Nothing, potentially devastating, nor providing a clear competitive advantage. Your original statement, and several after, was & have been clearly intended to highlight what you feel is THE competitive DISadvantage that Mercer will be under due to the loss of Curtis & Ward, but the stats of that game against Furman last year, the stats of the season as a whole, and the comparative loss to other SoCon Teams & within FCS as a whole, just do not support your assertion. So, you might say, “It’s not all about stats.” OK, pretty sure I’ve watched a tad more Mercer Football than anyone else posting here & I’m telling you that, while Curtis & Ward were both very good Players (and fine young men, as well), replacing what they did for Mercer last year will not be any more of a challenge for Mercer than what the AVERAGE FCS program will face this season. To assert that it will be is just incorrect.

[Bootie]

If we can win the first one, we win them all.

CAN we win the first one?? It is NOT 100% impossible, so, yes, we can. It will be tough. It will be against the odds. But it IS possible.

Jackal, what does "RPO" stand for?