.

[FUBeAR]

26th in the STATS as well.

Pretty sure the Stats poll is not out yet. 2PM?

Came out about 12:30 EDT
https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/09/fcs-t ... -rankings/

Good job. Furmam jumped 11 spots and garnered 80 more votes than last week.

99.XX% of that is due to whipping ETSU, but FUBeAR is absolutely certain some measure of the jump is due to poll voters being ‘called out’ publicly by more than just a few peeps on Facebook, Twitter, and various message boards…and presented with FACTS showing the fallacy of some of their rankings - both in the Teams they had ranked ahead of Furman & willfully ignoring Furman’s performance in 2022.

Left to their own ‘devices,’ many poll voters would be perfectly happy with filling all 25 slots with MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA Teams regardless of what on the field results are showing them…and everyone else.

[bj93]

Kennesaw State plays Wofford. After the win over the rat dogs you have to assume at 1-2 Kennesaw may jump back into the top 10.

[AllTimeFU]

Massey Ratings:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings

Chatty 7
Furman 14
Mercer 20
Samford 23
ETSU 49
Citadel 54

[FUBeAR]

Massey Ratings:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings

Chatty 7
Furman 14
Mercer 20
Samford 23
WCU 40
ETSU 49
Citadel 54
VMI 60
Wofford 64

Finished your post…Massey, IFBO, is about the best ranking right now…other than having Mercer, Samford, and WCU 5-10 spots low.

[AllTimeFU]

Massey Ratings:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings

Chatty 7
Furman 14
Mercer 20
Samford 23
WCU 40
ETSU 49
Citadel 54
VMI 60
Wofford 64

Finished your post…Massey, IFBO, is about the best ranking right now…other than having Mercer, Samford, and WCU 5-10 spots low.

Thanks for picking up my slack!

[The Jackal]

WCU will be an interesting one to watch. They could pick up a Top 25 win Saturday and have a beatable VMI team after that.

They might go into the October 8 Mercer game 4-1 with a top 25 win and only loss to an ACC team.

[wcugrad95]

Or we could lose both and be 2-3. I think we are going to find out a lot about both WCU and Sammie this weekend - the KSU game gives the Dogs a lot of early season love but not sure how good or bad either team is just yet. The question mark for the Cats is obviously around Carlos Davis’ shoulder. Clearly our odds are a lot better in any game he plays over the other FR we have at QB.

As it stands now, I agree with FUBeAR that the SoCon should have 5 teams inside the top 35 (or better). But it is still early.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR believes it best for us to be Samford Fans this weekend. (sorry 95)…because…

1) Samford is ranked / ranked higher than WCU now. It is to Furman’s and all SoCon Teams’ advantage for higher ranked Teams to win until they face FU (obviously).

2) We really want to face a 3-1, ranked Samford Team in Paladin Stadium next Saturday to face a nationally ranked Paladin Team (after dispensing with ChuckSouth).

3) And, though this sorta goes against #1 above, it seems that we want Kennesaw to absolutely devastate WoeFraught on Saturday. Anything less than a total blowout brings further question around the quality of Samford’s win over the owlets. Then, as painful as it will be, we would want Kennesaw to win out…which makes Samford’s win over them better…which makes our (expected future) win over Samford better.

All only matters if we keep winning…we will…this week at least…FUBeAR guaranteed.

[The Jackal]

I don’t want Kennesaw State anywhere near the at large bid conversation.

They get they “hey, weren’t they good last year?” benefit

[FUBeAR]

I don’t want Kennesaw State anywhere near the at large bid conversation.

They get they “hey, weren’t they good last year?” benefit

If the owlets win out, they will win the ASUN side of the WAC/ASUN AQ. Given the performances of the few eligible Teams on the WAC side, it’s nearly impossible that an undefeated-in-the-ASUN, 1 FCS (countable) loss KSU would have to go into some kind of focacta tie-breaker with one of those 3 Teams for the AQ.

So given the premise FUBeAR offered, Kennesaw wouldn’t be “anywhere near the at large bid conversation.” Instead they would be a proximate AQ’d Playoff Team. More proximate non-SoCon Teams getting AQ bids could help some SoCon Teams get more favorable 1st & 2nd round playoff game structures. For example, it would probably be better if Robert Morris or Bryant were not the Big South AQ.

Anyway…Go Samford! Beat the Cantamounts!!

….and as much as it pains FUBeAR to say it…go owlets. beat WoeFraught.

[FUBeAR]

FWIW…Massey now projects Furman to go 10-1 / 8-0.

Carry that off and it would mean a definite Top 8 seed…perhaps even Top 4.

[stonemd]

https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/2800

I see we are favored in all the remaining games - but that does not necessarily project to a 10-1 record. For example if we are 60% likely to win in game 4 and game 5 it amounts to only a 36% chance (0.60x0.60) of winning both games. But I do like 10-1

[The Jackal]

Let's take it one game at a time.

Saturday gave me some comfort that this team can get it done against a good team in a tight ball game when everything isn't quite working like you hope it would.

Remember, we are still three games in to a new offensive system with a QB that didn't have a spring practice and has limited starting experience. I'm anxious to see what we look like as guys get more comfortable with what we're doing on offense.

[FUBeAR]

https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/2800

I see we are favored in all the remaining games - but that does not necessarily project to a 10-1 record. For example if we are 60% likely to win in game 4 and game 5 it amounts to only a 36% chance (0.60x0.60) of winning both games. But I do like 10-1

You are seeing / calculating the games as a series.

As all great Coaches admonish us to do, FUBeAR is seeing / calculating each game as a unique independent event with no relation to any of the other events. Once the outcome has been established, it will be added to the past games which are/have become a series. This is given in the mechanics / calculation of the forward looking projection.

For example Furman is 2-1 now. Whether they assessed to have a 51% chance or a 99% chance win in game 4, we will count that as a completed win. That “hay” (the future win) is already in our projected win barn. So, once we have put it in our projected win barn, we reassign that game a future expected probability of 100%. Now we are ready to consider the next game for inclusion in our projected win barn and then for a reassigned probability.

Thus, Massey IS projecting a 10-1 record if you handle your mechanics properly.

[stonemd]

You convinced me. 10-1 it is.