AVOIDING THE PLAY-IN GAME-BIG WEEK

[apaladin]

Currently all alone in 6th place one game ahead of 7th(play-in). 12 games left: 6 home, 6 away.
Likely losses: Samford, @ETSU, @UTC, UNCG, @Samford, @Wofford
Tossups: @VMI, @Mercer
Likely wins: WCU, Mercer, VMI, Citadel
The 2 road games this week are must wins to avoid the play-in game. @VMI Wednesday and @Mercer Saturday.
Win both and have at least a 2 game cushion on both. Lose to either and will be tied for 7th. Lose to both and could be alone in 7th. Win both and chances of getting to 20 wins is much more likely.
Current power rankings IMHO:
1. Samford
2. UTC, ETSU, WC, UNCG,
6. Furman
7. Mercer
8. VMI
9. WCU
10. Citadel

[FU Hoopla]

This just got real with 8 games left, we don't have enoigh guys stepping up right now, SoCon play for us has stunk...........................

[MidlandsPaladin]

Only saving grace is we have 5 of the last 8 at home, four of which against #10, #9, #8, and #6. We absolutely can’t afford another slip up at home.

[apaladin]

Only saving grace is we have 5 of the last 8 at home, four of which against #10, #9, #8, and #6. We absolutely can’t afford another slip up at home.

3 likely road losses: UTC, SAMFORD, WC. Makes 8 losses.
5 home games: likely to finish 8-10 or 9-9. Will battle VMI and Mercer for 6th place. Currently in 7th place. Doesn’t matter about all the teams ahead of us, just need to pull against MU and VMI. Have both of those at home too.

[jesse174]

This just got real with 8 games left, we don't have enoigh guys stepping up right now, SoCon play for us has stunk...........................

a poor shooting team this year...can't expect anything good to happen..just can't miss so many free throws...deserved to lose...guys never give up tho....

[MidlandsPaladin]

Only saving grace is we have 5 of the last 8 at home, four of which against #10, #9, #8, and #6. We absolutely can’t afford another slip up at home.

3 likely road losses: UTC, SAMFORD, WC. Makes 8 losses.
5 home games: likely to finish 8-10 or 9-9. Will battle VMI and Mercer for 6th place. Currently in 7th place. Doesn’t matter about all the teams ahead of us, just need to pull against MU and VMI. Have both of those at home too.

10-8. I’m calling it. Not what any of us wanted after the OOC schedule, but should be enough to avoid the play-in.

[Affirm]

Only saving grace is we have 5 of the last 8 at home, four of which against #10, #9, #8, and #6. We absolutely can’t afford another slip up at home.

3 likely road losses: UTC, SAMFORD, WC. Makes 8 losses.
5 home games: likely to finish 8-10 or 9-9. Will battle VMI and Mercer for 6th place. Currently in 7th place. Doesn’t matter about all the teams ahead of us, just need to pull against MU and VMI. Have both of those at home too.

10-8. I’m calling it. Not what any of us wanted after the OOC schedule, but should be enough to avoid the play-in.

So we eventually get to the end of the season as what, 20-12? Not terrible.

[apaladin]

Only saving grace is we have 5 of the last 8 at home, four of which against #10, #9, #8, and #6. We absolutely can’t afford another slip up at home.

3 likely road losses: UTC, SAMFORD, WC. Makes 8 losses.
5 home games: likely to finish 8-10 or 9-9. Will battle VMI and Mercer for 6th place. Currently in 7th place. Doesn’t matter about all the teams ahead of us, just need to pull against MU and VMI. Have both of those at home too.

10-8. I’m calling it. Not what any of us wanted after the OOC schedule, but should be enough to avoid the play-in.

So we eventually get to the end of the season as what, 20-12? Not terrible.

If we finish conference play 10-8 that would be 22-9 regular season. To finish 20-12 would have to go 3-6 including a one and done. Yes that would be disappointing.

[Roundball]

Only saving grace is we have 5 of the last 8 at home, four of which against #10, #9, #8, and #6. We absolutely can’t afford another slip up at home.

But, we really don’t have a home court advantage. I will so glad when we get back to playing games at Timmons.

[Affirm]

Only saving grace is we have 5 of the last 8 at home, four of which against #10, #9, #8, and #6. We absolutely can’t afford another slip up at home.

3 likely road losses: UTC, SAMFORD, WC. Makes 8 losses.
5 home games: likely to finish 8-10 or 9-9. Will battle VMI and Mercer for 6th place. Currently in 7th place. Doesn’t matter about all the teams ahead of us, just need to pull against MU and VMI. Have both of those at home too.

10-8. I’m calling it. Not what any of us wanted after the OOC schedule, but should be enough to avoid the play-in.

So we eventually get to the end of the season as what, 20-12? Not terrible.

If we finish conference play 10-8 that would be 22-9 regular season. To finish 20-12 would have to go 3-6 including a one and done. Yes that would be disappointing.

It was apaladin who wrote that we’re likely to be 3-5 in our remaining regular season games.
Then the play in game, a one and done.
No more disappointing to be one and done in the play in game than in a quarterfinal or a semifinal.
20-12 Not terrible
21-12 Not terrible
22-12 Not terrible
Maybe disappointing compared to where we were at 4:00 PM on January 4th (30 days ago), but not terrible.
We have 31 more days, right now, to enjoy Furman men’s basketball.
Not terrible.
Hopefully we WILL win at least those 3 more games that apaladin said we’re likely to win.
If not, THEN “not terrible” may not apply.

[Davemeister]

It's sad when our goal becomes being "Not Terrible."

[apaladin]

Since any hope of finishing toward the top ended with yesterday’s meltdown the main goal now is to avoid the play-in game. Currently 5-5 with these games left and likely outcomes:
WCU-win
@UTC-loss
Mercer-tossup
Uncg-tossup
@Samford-loss
VMI-tossup
Citadel-win
@WC-loss
Of course none of those may be correct, we ciuld lose or win them all but that is just the way it looks like for now.
Most likely will MU, VMI, and FU will end up 6,7,8 in some order. The 2 key games will be the 2 home games against MU and VMI. Win both of those and probably finish 6th. Finishing 6th avoids the #1 seed until the CG. Of course how we react to giving the game away yesterday will mean a lot .