SoCon Season Part 2

[apaladin]

With the first 3 spots pretty much assured in some order between WC, UNCG and ETSU and the bottom 3 spots pretty much assured in some order with Citadel, WCU and VMI that leaves 4-7 to be decided between FU, UTC, Mercer and Samford. There's really no difference in finishing 4 or 5th as these 2 will play in round 2 of the tourney. Finishing 6th means you most likely face the #3 team the first game and would have to beat the top 3 in 3 days, barring upsets.
Finishing 7th would be the worst case as it would mean an extra game. FU and UTC have 4 home and 5 away left. Samford and Mercer have 5 home and 4 away left. Bad news for FU is we have all 3 teams we are battling on the road left. UTC has Samford and Mercer on the road. Samford only has Mercer on the road. Mercer has all 3 at home just the opposite of FU. Based on this the scheduling advantage ranks like this: 1. Mercer, 2. Samford, 3. UTC, 4. Furman.
In regards to the top teams FU has all 3 at home, UTC has all 3 at home, Samford has ETSU and WC at home and Mercer has WC and UNCG at home. Just going by the schedule it looks like FU has the hardest road to finishing either 4th or 5th.
The good news is we have a two game lead on both Mercer and Samford even though the schedule heavily favors both Mercer and Samford. We really need to beat the bottom 3, take 2 of 3 between the teams we are battling and steal at least one at home against the top 3. That would give us a 6-3 second half record which should be enough to finish 4th or 5th. Beating Mercer and Samford on the road will be tough. If we could beat Mercer on the road next Saturday, that would give us the tie-breaker. with them. It could really come down to the last week when we are at Samford and UTC. Time will tell. Below is what each team has left:
FU: Home: ETSU, UNCG, VMI, WC
Away: Citadel, Mercer, WCU, Samford, UTC
UTC: Home: ETSU, UNCG, WC, FU
Away: VMI, Samford, Citadel, Mercer, WCU
SAM: Home: ETSU, WCU, UTC, FU, WC
Away: UNCG, VMI, Mecer, Citadel
Mercer: Home: WC, FU, Samford, UTC, UNCG
Road: WCU, ETSU, VMI, Citadel

[dinhead]

With the first 3 spots pretty much assured in some order between WC, UNCG and ETSU and the bottom 3 spots pretty much assured in some order with Citadel, WCU and VMI that leaves 4-7 to be decided between FU, UTC, Mercer and Samford. There's really no difference in finishing 4 or 5th as these 2 will play in round 2 of the tourney. Finishing 6th means you most likely face the #3 team the first game and would have to beat the top 3 in 3 days, barring upsets.
Finishing 7th would be the worst case as it would mean an extra game. FU and UTC have 4 home and 5 away left. Samford and Mercer have 5 home and 4 away left. Bad news for FU is we have all 3 teams we are battling on the road left. UTC has Samford and Mercer on the road. Samford only has Mercer on the road. Mercer has all 3 at home just the opposite of FU. Based on this the scheduling advantage ranks like this: 1. Mercer, 2. Samford, 3. UTC, 4. Furman.
In regards to the top teams FU has all 3 at home, UTC has all 3 at home, Samford has ETSU and WC at home and Mercer has WC and UNCG at home. Just going by the schedule it looks like FU has the hardest road to finishing either 4th or 5th.
The good news is we have a two game lead on both Mercer and Samford even though the schedule heavily favors both Mercer and Samford. We really need to beat the bottom 3, take 2 of 3 between the teams we are battling and steal at least one at home against the top 3. That would give us a 6-3 second half record which should be enough to finish 4th or 5th. Beating Mercer and Samford on the road will be tough. If we could beat Mercer on the road next Saturday, that would give us the tie-breaker. with them. It could really come down to the last week when we are at Samford and UTC. Time will tell. Below is what each team has left:
FU: Home: ETSU, UNCG, VMI, WC
Away: Citadel, Mercer, WCU, Samford, UTC
UTC: Home: ETSU, UNCG, WC, FU
Away: VMI, Samford, Citadel, Mercer, WCU
SAM: Home: ETSU, WCU, UTC, FU, WC
Away: UNCG, VMI, Mecer, Citadel
Mercer: Home: WC, FU, Samford, UTC, UNCG
Road: WCU, ETSU, VMI, Citadel

A couple weeks ago I thought it was great that we still had three home games left against the top three teams so we could make a run at the top spot. However recent losses have changed all that. Besides VMI at home there are few easy wins on the remaining schedule and a 6th place finish that was once unthinkable is now a real possibility.

Hopefully we'll clinch a top 5 spot with a few games remaining so we can use those games to rest some players and prepare for the tournament.

[DungeonRealm]

The funny thing is I feel if things finished up #1 Wofford # 2 UNCG #3 ETSU #4/5 Furman/UTC #6 Samford, I would actually like that road better for us than having the #3 seed

Still a good ways to go however, till then lets see how this week on the road goes

[apaladin]

Before last Saturday we were pulling for the top 3 teams to lose. Since we are out of contention for a top 3 spot I guess we now have to pull for the top 3 to win when they are playing the teams we are competing with for the 4th and 5th spots.
This week we need to pull for:
Thursday:
Wofford over Mercer at Mercer
ETSU over Samford at Samford
Saturday:
ETSU over UTC at UTC

[soconjohn]

Furman is two games back of ETSU and still has to play ETSU at Timmons, how is Furman out of contention for third?

[apaladin]

Furman is two games back of ETSU and still has to play ETSU at Timmons, how is Furman out of contention for third?

Not technically, but do you see ETSU losing 2-3 more games than Furman in the second half? EX: If FU has a good second half and goes 7-2, ETSU would have to go 5-4 just to tie them, or 4-5 to finish ahead of them. Don't see that happening. I really think ETSU is the favorite in Asheville.

[soconjohn]

ETSU has games at UNCG and Samford Thursday...Furman has more favorable schedule over second half of schedule, so yes I think so...ETSU has not beaten any of the other top three on the road, so why wouldn't I?

[soconjohn]

Again, Furman is the only team that had to go to: @UNCG, @Wofford and @ETSU before anyone else...People forget that I think.

[stonemd]

I'd rather play Wofford in the semis and ETSU in the finals

[DungeonRealm]

I'd rather play Wofford in the semis and ETSU in the finals

Same here, Woff in semi's and ETSU/UNCG in finals would be my preference as well, which is why 4th/5th is probably fine