FUBeAR wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:11 am
The Jackal wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2024 6:54 am
FUBeAR wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 8:54 pm
The Jackal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 4:49 pm
Couple of unrelated thoughts on Mercer.
The Bears have had a strong season. ALL of the pressure Saturday will be on them, however. As we saw last year, a struggling team can surprise the conference front runner late in the season.
Mercer's passing offense appears to essentially do what Furman does statistically. They'll turn it over some. The Bears run the ball this season better than we do and have been better defensively.
Our defense bowed their necks some in Johnson City. Might be a good time to see the old Paladin stuff-the-run unit show up and let a couple of these newly minted ball hawks on the back end pick off a pass or two.
It's a stat I've followed most of the season, but Mercer almost never (3 times total all year) kicks a touchback. Furman has, arguably, the SoCon's best kick returner that should have opportunities for returns. That will be interesting to follow as Furman loves to get the ball in Hinton's hands and the Bears, at least on kickoffs, will struggle to prevent that from happening.
Overall, limit turnovers, tackle the man with the ball, make Mercer get nervous on a big home game with so much on the line for them (like Furman had last year at Wofford). Make the game ugly.
I'm also sad to see a couple of good soldiers put on the purple and white for the last time. Especially Dimaggio and Clark. Those guys have been fun to watch develop over the years.
You are right about Mercer’s Kickoff game. FUBeAR has been unable to ascertain if it’s a bug or a feature though. They rank 47th in FCS in KR Defense and #1 (or #123, depending upon perspective) in number of Kickoff Returns against with 55. Furman has had 2. But FUBeAR hasn’t really recalled the Bears getting ‘hurt’ in this phase of the game this season … so he dug into the details…
Mercer has Kicked Off 71 times this season. They’ve kicked 5 of those out of bounds, giving the opposing Offense the ball at their 35 YL. Opponents have Fair Caught 8 Kickoffs, placing the ball at their 25 YL. They’ve only had 3 Touchbacks and 1 of those was on a KO from the 50. So…71-5-8-3 = 55 Returns.
They have used 2 different Kickers mid-season without a lot of notable difference between the 2, so it seems they’ve gone back to the original guy.
The interesting thing is, though, the average starting yard line for Mercer opponents after Kickoffs is the 26.6 yard line. So, if they had kicked it out of the back of the endzone on every kick, they would have gained an average of less than 2 yards of field position/kick. So, an average of about 10 yards/game worse than if they had banged it out of the back. Certainly higher risk, but they haven’t been ‘caught’ yet, and they did get 1 fumble recovery on a Kickoff. So, maybe that’s the Reward payoff they are hoping for in taking the risk. Or maybe their guy(s) just ain’t have enough leg. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Looks like Hinton’s 25.3 yds KR Avg trails only Chatt’s Whatley (27.7) and Samford’s Rias (26.7) in KR average. Whatley averaged 21.5 / KR (22% below his avg) against Mercer and Rias avg’d 21.0 (27% below his avg).
Bottom line …
Stats tell us the most likely occurrence on Mercer Kickoffs is that Mercer is going to kick it to about the 7 or 8 yard line and the Paladin Offense will begin the drive at about the 27 or 28 yard line.
It seems the prevailing approach in college and NFL is that if you can force a touchback, you force a touchback. You know where the ball is getting spotted, you risk no return, you risk no injury.
I doubt Mercer's approach is intentional. You wouldn't not kick a touchback and then let your opponent get better field position than they might otherwise. I suspect their kickers can't make the end zone, which is also a little bizarre. It's a skill, for sure, but it's not an unheard of skill even among high school kickers. Ian Williams, with his cannon leg, is, of course, an exception into how prolific he is at forcing touchbacks.
It has not really seemed to burn them yet. Of course, Hinton is a dangerous return man.
It's like last year when teams had to kick to Devron Harper. He's not guaranteed to pop a big return, but you know the odds are eventually he will. In a potentially tight game, that's one of those things that could be pivotal.
Probably correct.
But, Mercer’s opponents have started drives after Non-OB (5) / Non-penalty-affected Kickoffs (1) across the 35 yard line on only 3 occasions and none have crossed midfield. So, the assessed Return Score/Field Position risk of kicking it to about the 7 seems, to Mercer’s Coaches, to be lower than just kicking it OB (past the 35) every time. Probably looking at their coverage capability, likelihood of a penalty on the return team, and possibility of a turnover as providing reward greater than that risk. That assessment may change based upon the ability of the returner / return team, but they didn’t seem to alter the strategy for Whatley or Rias, so maybe Hinton & his Stache (a separate entity unto itself) will get their chance … maybe only 1 shot though
If FUBeAR is Coaching and his guy can only put it down to the 7, that kid is aiming at the kicking net on the sidelines at the 20 yard line every time. Risk of a KOR for a TD gives FUBeAR the shakies!
Epilogue to this discussion…
On 7 Mercer Kickoff that were not Touchbacks (1), OB (0), or penalty-affected (0), the kicks went to the 11 yard line, on average … the 10 yard line, if we count the touchback Kickoff as the 0 yard line.
Furman drives began, on the average, including or excluding the TB Kickoff, at the 26 yard line…about as projected.
