SoCon improvement

[Paul C]

There was a lot of gnashing of teeth and foaming at the mouth when Davidson, CoC, Elon, App and GSU left the SoCon to be replaced by ETSU, Mercer and VMI.

Yes, it clearly hurt in football but the surprising thing is how the SoCon has risen in basketball since this afforementioned teams stopped dragging us down.

Using KenPom as a barometer, here is the SoCon over that last 5 years with the former members compared to the 5 years since.

So today, per Pomeroy we are ranked 14th of all 32 D1 conferences. Looking at SoCon ranking history....

2010 w Dav and CoC etc - 19
2011 w Dav and CoC etc - 20
2012 w Dav and CoC etc - 26
2013 w Dav and CoC etc - 28
2014 w Dav/GSU/App - 30
2015 current lineup - 25
2016 current lineup - 19
2017 current lineup - 14
2018 current lineup - 22
2019* current lineup - 14

Avg ranking in 5 years w Dav, CoC, App, Elon, GSU = 22.6

Avg ranking in the 5 years since they left = 18.8

So at least from a basketball perspective, it's been a great move.

[Fessor]

Instead, how about doing this:

Take the 2010 SoCon members. Use the current individual KenPom ranking/rating for each of the schools that left and add them to individual rating/ranking for the SoCon members at the time who are still in the SoCon to get a total current score for that iteration of the conference. Then, rank that score among current conferences to get a current ranking of the SoCon 2010 iteration of the SoCon. What is the ranking?

Use the end of season ranking for each of the last five years, rank those, and calculate an average for the last five years.

In CofC and Davidson, you lost multiple good rivalry games (e.g., Citadel/CofC; Fu/Davidson) and two schools that emphasize basketball, one of which has national name recognition.

I can't agree that somehow the conference is better off as a result of those schools leaving.

[tya1]

Some of that improvement can be credited to the Paladins. We have been much better in the latter period. ETSU is fairly consistently good. Mercer joined the SoCon at their high point and have been solid. Last year's ranking was strongly negatively influenced by Chattanooga's bad year and by the injury plagued Samford team from last year.

Davidson and CofC both made the NCAA tournament last year from their new conferences. Georgia Southern had a good record last year and has been a contender in recent years from their new conference. Not on PaulC's list, but Marshall also made the NCAA tournament from their current league and had a memorable first round upset win. Elon and App. State have not been good.

[Paul C]

Fessor - we can play “what if” or we can recognise “what is” and clearly the SoCon has improved.

Sure it’s a bit counter-intuitive as Davidson and CoC are quality programs. But to quote ex-NFL coach John Fox “It is what it is”.

[Fessor]

Fessor - we can play “what if” or we can recognise “what is” and clearly the SoCon has improved.

Sure it’s a bit counter-intuitive as Davidson and CoC are quality programs. But to quote ex-NFL coach John Fox “It is what it is”.

First, the popularity of that phrase is best attributed to Bill Belichick. It's a derivation of Parcell's "You are what your record says you are."

My point is that the conference isn't better for CofC and Davidson having left and any improvement in the conference would likely have been even greater were those two teams still around.

When is the last time the conference won a game in the NCAA Tournament? Who was that team?

[Paul C]

How do we know that the departure of CoC and Davidson didn’t open the door to Furman and Wofford’s improvement? My point being that cause and effect and the derivatives of actions are impossible to link.

All we know for certain is A) those team left and B) the SoCon is better.

Anything else is trying too hard.

[Fessor]

Try harder.

[Paul C]

And after last nights action the SoCon now moves up to 13th....three teams in the top 90 (Woff, ETSU and FU) as ranked by KenPom and one (UNCG) just outside the top 100 at #102. And only 1 (VMI) south of 300.

Highest ranking ever for the SoCon if my memory combined w my superficial research is correct.

And that’s the fact, Jack.

[Paul C]

So after the games of 1/24, the SoCon has 4 teams in the Top 100 (Ken Pom)

41 - Wofford
71 - ETSU
85 - Furman
92 - UNCG

I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.....

[tya1]

In the NCAA's new NET rating system Wofford is #26, UNCG is #57, Furman is #63, and ETSU is #79. The NCAA has announced that their NET is the only rating tool that will be used to aid in selecting the tournament field. It isn't the final say, of course, but if they picked at-large teams using it Wofford would be a lock for an at-large bid,and the other three teams would be just outside the bubble with a month and a half to go. LSU is #12 and Villanova is #24.

[DungeonRealm]

In the NCAA's new NET rating system Wofford is #26, UNCG is #57, Furman is #63, and ETSU is #79. The NCAA has announced that their NET is the only rating tool that will be used to aid in selecting the tournament field. It isn't the final say, of course, but if they picked at-large teams using it Wofford would be a lock for an at-large bid,and the other three teams would be just outside the bubble with a month and a half to go. LSU is #12 and Villanova is #24.

And we played all 5 of those teams on the road, we should certainly be toughened up for this stretch run here

[edwards555]

A good net site with great graphics is:
warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net-nitty

I did a net NCAA bracket comparing net vs. Joey Brackets. Joey's last 5 were Seton Hall, Arizona, Minnesota, VCU, and Arizona State. Net would have only 1 PAC team in. Net's last 5 were San Francisco, Butler, Bowling Green, Lipscomb, and Utah State. I just feel at the end of the day the committee will still go power5. On the other hand if Buffalo or Wofford would lose in their Conference Tournaments it would be interesting to see if the MAC and the SoCon would both get 2 teams. Right now each would have a compelling argument.
Strictly from a money standpoint the SoCon's best result might be for Wofford to run the table and lose in the conference tournament.

[apaladin]

You know and I know that ratings be damned the committee will take a 10th place team from a power 5 conference with 15 losses before they would take any SoCon team.

[youwouldno]

In the NCAA's new NET rating system Wofford is #26, UNCG is #57, Furman is #63, and ETSU is #79. The NCAA has announced that their NET is the only rating tool that will be used to aid in selecting the tournament field. It isn't the final say, of course, but if they picked at-large teams using it Wofford would be a lock for an at-large bid,and the other three teams would be just outside the bubble with a month and a half to go. LSU is #12 and Villanova is #24.

The committee will continue to pick at-larges from power conferences, regardless of what the rating system says. NET is basically just a way to streamline, as opposed to the prior method of using various rating tools.

So far as the SoCon . . . conference strength is dependent on having multiple strong teams, which often was not the case in the latter years of Davidson's time in the SoCon. Right now of course the top of the conference is quite strong. I think these things tend to go in cycles. I've noticed that conference strength aligns very closely with average attendance (probably because it's a proxy for school size and alumni support).

The SoCon has generally been around #18 in average attendance, I think, going back decades. So once you allow for ups and downs, the #14-22 range makes sense as a general expectation.

[Paul C]

Ken Pom goes back to 2002. For kicks I added Furman season ending ranking in parenthesis

2002 - 15 (171)
2003 - 22 (233)
2004 - 20 (164)
2005 - 23 (199)
2006 - 21 (224) Larry Davis last year
2007 - 18 (193) Jeff Jackson year 1
2008 - 13 (291) this was the year Davidson went to the Elite Eight
2009 - 25 (327)
2010 - 19 (234)
2011 - 20 (142)
2012 - 26 (247)
2013 - 28 (342) Jeff Jackson last year
2014 - 30 (342) Niko yr 1
2015 - 25 (309)
2016 - 19 (175)
2017 - 14 (106) Niko last year
2018 - 22 (95) Bob yr 1
2019* - 13 (87) Bob yr 2