2024 -WORSE THAN I THOUGHT

[apaladin]

I guess it's just something to talk about at this point in the preseason.

We always have to replace players. It happens every year.

Sure, Pline is in the NFL. Few of us even knew his name this time last year. He came from a D2 school where he was primarily a basketball player and ended up replacing a guy that is all over the Furman record books (Ryan Miller). It worked out.

Trust the coaches.

Yes always have to replace players but never close to this before. The season is fast approaching, less than 10 weeks to kickoff.

[The Jackal]

I guess it's just something to talk about at this point in the preseason.

We always have to replace players. It happens every year.

Sure, Pline is in the NFL. Few of us even knew his name this time last year. He came from a D2 school where he was primarily a basketball player and ended up replacing a guy that is all over the Furman record books (Ryan Miller). It worked out.

Trust the coaches.

Yes always have to replace players but never close to this before. The season is fast approaching, less than 10 weeks to kickoff.

Yeah, but I suspect every team is dealing with that to some degree. COVID created a really peculiar environment.

You may underestimate a bit how much Furman rotates players in the game and how much experience some of these "new" faces have.

[DeepPurple]

We have recruited better than ever over the past seasons. We play a lot of guys. We have good players. Can't wait till toe meets leather in Oxford, Ms. August 31. Go Dins!

[soconjohn]

Furman will be fine…They have really good talent.

[gman84]

I guess it's just something to talk about at this point in the preseason.

We always have to replace players. It happens every year.

Sure, Pline is in the NFL. Few of us even knew his name this time last year. He came from a D2 school where he was primarily a basketball player and ended up replacing a guy that is all over the Furman record books (Ryan Miller). It worked out.

Trust the coaches.

Yes always have to replace players but never close to this before. The season is fast approaching, less than 10 weeks to kickoff.

Relax. It is what it is. I'll enjoy watching a new team. It's not like the entire coaching staff was replaced.

[FUBeAR]

I guess it's just something to talk about at this point in the preseason.

We always have to replace players. It happens every year.

Sure, Pline is in the NFL. Few of us even knew his name this time last year. He came from a D2 school where he was primarily a basketball player and ended up replacing a guy that is all over the Furman record books (Ryan Miller). It worked out.

Trust the coaches.

Yes always have to replace players but never close to this before. The season is fast approaching, less than 10 weeks to kickoff.

Yeah, but I suspect every team is dealing with that to some degree. COVID created a really peculiar environment.

You may underestimate a bit how much Furman rotates players in the game and how much experience some of these "new" faces have.

Other than OL … Statistical “Production” can provide insight into lost /returning and to how much non-starters contributed…

Rushing
# Player GP ATT Gain Loss Net AVG TD Long AVG/G
8 Roberto, Dominic 12 182 780 23 757 4.2 11 32 63.08
6 Huff, Tyler11 105 687 96 591 5.6 6 53 53.73
9 Anderson Jr., Wayne13 63 283 15 268 4.3 1 54 20.62
7 Hicks, Myion12 36 243 14 229 6.4 3 40 19.08
21 Smith, Jayquan 5 28 129 6 123 4.4 2 20 24.60
28 Robinson, Grant 4 32 127 17 110 3.4 0 27 27.50
25 Croasdale, Ben1 3 23 0 23 7.7 0 19 23.00
88 Cannon, Nick 13 1 4 0 4 4.0 0 4 0.31
17 Thomas, Kendall 4 7 10 6 4 0.6 0 5 1.00
29 Reid, Tyler 1 3 3 2 1 0.3 0 2 1.00
Garvn-mingo, Jalil 1 1 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00
63 Hughes, Wyatt 13 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00
13 Hughes, Bailor 11 1 0 1 -1 -1.0 0 0 -0.09
11 Dean, Kyndel 13 2 6 18 -12 -6.0 1 6 -0.92
5 Jones, Carson 6 7 6 29 -23 -3.3 0 5 -3.83
Team 13 18 0 28 -28 -1.6 0 0 -2.15 (removed from “Total” for calculation)
Total 13 489 2301 255 2046 4.2 24 54 157.38

Returning 461 Net 22.23%. …. UPDATE: 26.18% RETURNING USING ATTEMPTS INSTEAD OF YARDS
Lost 1613 Net 77.77%


Passing
# Player GP Rating COMP ATT INT % YDS TD Long AVG/G
6 Huff, Tyler11 120.26 184 301 6 61.13 % 1869 10 70 169.91
5 Jones, Carson 6 120.42 57 101 2 56.44 % 542 7 40 90.33
2 Harris, Joshua13 264.20 1 2 0 50.00 % 51 0 51 3.92
4 Garcia, Nehuel1 100.00 1 1 0 100.00 % 0 0 0 0.00
10 Watson, Charles 13 50.00 1 2 0 50.00 % 0 0 0 0.00
Total 13 120.03 244 409 8 59.66 % 2462 17 70 189.3

Returning 593 YDS 24.09% … UPDATE: 25.43% USING ATTEMPTS INSTEAD OF YARDS
Lost 1869 YDS 75.91%


Receiving
# Player GP NO YDS AVG TD Long AVG/G
82 Hinton, Colton 13 34 404 11.88 2 70 31.08
2 Harris, Joshua 13 42 380 9.05 2 27 29.23
3 Ferguson, Ben 13 27 335 12.41 1 45 25.77
11 Dean, Kyndel 13 25 320 12.80 1 51 24.62
12 Shiflett, Luke 13 27 288 10.67 3 48 22.15
89 Pline, Mason13 32 287 8.97 4 30 22.08
9 Anderson Jr., Wayne 13 24 186 7.75 1 37 14.31
88 Cannon, Nick 13 4 63 15.75 2 34 4.85
8 Roberto, Dominic 12 7 46 6.57 0 9 3.83
13 Hughes, Bailor 11 5 43 8.60 0 18 3.91
0 Harris, Ethan 9 3 31 10.33 0 27 3.44
28 Robinson, Grant 4 2 28 14.00 0 19 7.00
41 Chappell, Brock 13 2 20 10.00 1 16 1.54
7 Hicks, Myion 12 3 14 4.67 0 5 1.17
21 Smith, Jayquan 5 1 10 10.00 0 10 2.00
81 Gissinger, Parks 11 3 9 3.00 0 7 0.82
17 Thomas, Kendall 4 1 1 1.00 0 1 0.25
26 Gunn, Kelton 6 2 -3 -1.50 0 0 -0.50
Total 13 244 2462 10.09 17 70 189.38

Returning 1265 YDS 51.38%. …. UPDATE: 48.77% USING RECEPTIONS INSTEAD OF YARDS
Lost 1197 YDS 48.62%

So…overall on O, AVG Returning Production is 32.57% (UPDATE: 33.46% USING ATT/ATT/RECPT INSTEAD OF YARDS)…about 1/3rd of the O is returning and about 2/3rds were lost. Given CCH’s history of replacing his entire Starting OL @ AF in 2010…and having a better record against a brutal schedule, FUBeAR feels it’s fair to ‘assign’ the OL no less than the same 1/3rd / 2/3rd ratio as the rest of the O.

DEFENSE
# Player GP Solo ASST TOT TFL-YDS Sacks-YDS INT BU QBH FR FF KICK SAF
43 Gilby, Braden 13 42 51 93.0 7.0-34 3.0-24 0 5 6 1 0 0 0
6 Ryan, Hugh 13 45 37 82.0 2.5-5 0-0 1 3 1 0 1 0 0
39 DiMaggio, Evan 13 40 39 79.0 11.5-37 5.0-25 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
24 Chizek, Cally 13 37 27 64.0 5.0-8 0-0 5 2 3 0 0 0 0
3 Brinson, Kam 12 35 21 56.0 1.0-3 0-0 1 7 0 0 1 0 0
44 Clark, Luke 13 23 30 53.0 7.0-43 6.0-43 0 1 4 1 2 0 0
22 Yates, Ivan 13 32 8 40.0 1.0-2 0-0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0
40 Stephens, Xavier 13 11 24 35.0 4.5-27 3.0-23 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
14 Robinson, Micah 11 28 6 34.0 1.0-1 0-0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0
1 Blackshear, Travis 12 20 9 29.0 2.0-3 0-0 4 9 1 0 0 0 0
58 Scianna, Dan 13 13 15 28.0 3.5-16 1.5-12 2 0 1 0 0 0 0
93 Barton, Jack 13 10 15 25.0 6.0-30 3.0-23 0 3 6 1 0 2 0
46 Maier, Alex 11 11 13 24.0 5.5-22 3.0-17 1 2 3 0 0 0 0
7 Sochovka, Matt 13 7 15 22.0 6.5-19 2.0-12 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
36 Miller, Jalen 12 11 10 21.0 4.5-9 1.0-1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
99 Cook, Sirod 13 10 10 20.0 7.0-34 3.0-28 0 1 6 0 1 0 0
15 Rhodes, Jack 13 10 8 18.0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 Williams, Caleb 13 8 9 17.0 0.5-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
97 Stanfield, Bryce 13 5 8 13.0 4.0-12 2.5-10 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 Jackson, Jeremiah 13 7 5 12.0 3.5-15 3.0-14 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
18 Burrell, AK 13 5 2 7.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
57 McLaughlin, Luke 4 3 3 6.0 2.0-5 0-0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
19 Kuzemka, Nicky 13 3 3 6.0 1.5-3 0-0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
16 Ingram V, Charles 7 4 2 6.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
48 Ashby, Julian 13 2 3 5.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
38 Hartwell, Justin 13 4 1 5.0 0.5-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
90 Dudek, Malakai 4 2 2 4.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
42 Herbert, Raleigh 3 1 3 4.0 1.0-9 1.0-9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
37 Moson, Jalen 3 3 1 4.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
88 Cannon, Nick 13 1 2 3.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
76 Rogers, Trey 4 2 1 3.0 2.0-9 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
94 Bussey, Caldwell 1 0 2 2.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
33 Gummer, Jalen 10 1 1 2.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30 Richards, Caden 5 1 1 2.0 1.0-10 1.0-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Chiedo, Dylan3 2 0 2.0 1.0-1 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
21 Smith, Jayquan 5 2 0 2.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 Shiflett, Luke 13 2 0 2.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
TM Team 13 1 0 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Removed for Calculation)
95 Stoneking, Joshua1 0 1 1.0 0.5-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
92 Harrison, Malachi 5 0 1 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
77 Norman jr., Fred 13 1 0 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
75 Toomey, Pearson 12 1 0 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Hicks, Myion 12 1 0 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
69 Wilson, E.J. 7 1 0 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29 Adebayo, Emmanuel 4 0 1 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
2 Harris, Joshua 13 1 0 1.0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 13 449 390 839.0 93.0-359 38.0-251 18 45 51 9 8 4 0

Returning Total Tackles 268 31.98%
Lost Total Tackles 570 68.02%

So … overall Team (not considering Kicking/Punting) average is 32.28% (UPDATE: 32.72% USING ATT/ATT/RECP ON O) Returning.

We lost 2/3rd’s of our production on both sides of the ball. Would prefer it to be less, but the newbies may be better than the oldies were. The fun is watching to see.

If anyone wants to do a similar analysis with the other 8 SoCon Teams, that would be an interesting and informative exercise. FUBeaR nominates apaladin to lead the project and FUBeAR will commit to doing Mercer…so only 7 more …How ‘bout it?

[apaladin]

Maybe but it will take a while!

[FUBeAR]

Maybe but it will take a while!

On O, Attempts / Attempts / Receptions would prolly yield similar data and, perhaps, be a little easier to calculate.

[FUBeAR]

Maybe but it will take a while!

Mercer…
Using Attempts…

Returning Rushing - 33.20%
Returning Passing - 0.98%
Returning Receptions - 32.51%
Overall Returning O Avg - 22.23%

Returning Tackles 67.55% …

impressive amount of D “production” returning, but very good DC is now HC @ West Georgia. We’ll see if the Bears D continues to be as solid as it has been in recent years.

And, obviously, QB is a GIANT question mark for Mercer. With Peevy becoming a ‘Downeaster” Bear instead of a Middle Georgia one, they have a vacuum at that spot…

1 D.J. Smith QB 6-2 200 Jr. Greenwood, Miss. Greenville Christian HS Jones JC
4 Lonnie Ratliff IV QB 5-11 210 R-So. Duluth, Ga. Duluth HS Holmes CC / Louisiana Tech
9 Beau Green QB 6-1 215 R-Fr. Madera, Calif. Madera HS
12 Hess Horne QB 6-2 185 R-Jr. Eufaula, Ala. Eufaula HS Missouri State
15 Neko Fann QB 5-10 175 Fr. Moultrie, Ga. Colquitt County HS
? Whitt Newbauer QB 6-6 225 Fr. Raleigh, NC Cardinal Gibbons HS (not on roster yet; not a spring enrollee; was x’ing about Mercer Football as recently as 5/24, so assuming he is still coming)

Horne, MoSt transfer, threw the 3 passes last season that Peevy did not throw, but don’t think he is really in the mix to be the 2024 QB. Could be wrong. Brought in 2 JUCO transfers (Smith & Ratliff) and 2 very interesting, highly touted Freshmen (Fann & Newbauer). Green is a bit of mystery. Was supposedly on roster last year. Didn’t play. Dad is HS Coach and it seems that Green was originally Class of ‘22, while playing for several different HS’s (reportedly being “recruited” to them) in CA. Listed with offers from Auburn, MTSU, W&M, Yale, et al. Can’t find him playing anywhere in ‘22. So…¯\_(ツ)_/¯ is the current status of Mercer’s QB situation, from FUBeAR’s perspective.

44.89% Avg returning Attempts/Production on both sides of the ball.

All righty, apaladin, only 7 more to go and then we’ll be able to have a relatively informative and objective gauge of where Furman stands with regard to Lost / Returning in relation to other SoCon Teams.

[apaladin]

Maybe but it will take a while!

On O, Attempts / Attempts / Receptions would prolly yield similar data and, perhaps, be a little easier to calculate.

Well the first 2 I was going to do, Samford and Citadel both still have last year’s rosters posted so it’s a no go. Hard to believe it is 10 weeks to KO and these ding dongs don’t even have a roster up.

[gman84]

AP, even the other SoCon schools don't want you to sleep at night!

[FUBeAR]

Woffy…
Rushing Attempts Returning - 99.54%
Passing Attempts Returning - 99.21%
Receptions Returning - 69.86%
Avg Returning O “Production” - 89.54%

Defense Tackles Returning - 67.01%

Overall Avg Returning - 78.28%
——————————————————

ETSU…
Rushing Attempts Returning - 62.23%
Passing Attempts Returning - 44.54%
Receptions Returning - 32.35%
Avg Returning O “Production” - 46.37%

Defense Tackles Returning - 47.90%

Overall Avg Returning - 47.14%
——————————————————

VMI…
Rushing Attempts Returning - 50.25%
Passing Attempts Returning - 30.70%
Receptions Returning - 31.58%
Avg Returning O “Production” - 37.51%

Defense Tackles Returning - 55.02%

Overall Avg Returning - 46.27%
——————————————————

WCU…
Rushing Attempts Returning - 56.62%
Passing Attempts Returning - 93.75%
Receptions Returning - 45.59%
Avg Returning O “Production” - 65.32%

Defense Tackles Returning - 56.29%

Overall Avg Returning - 60.81%
——————————————————

Chatt…
Rushing Attempts Returning - 36.44%
Passing Attempts Returning - 100.00%
Receptions Returning - 59.57%
Avg Returning O “Production” - 65.34%

Defense Tackles Returning - 62.70%

Overall Avg Returning - 64.02%

————————————————————-

Summary…so far…

1) Wofford 78.28%
2) Chatt 64.02%
3) WCU 60.81%
4) ETSU 47.14
5) VMI 46.27
6) Mercer 44.89%
7) Furman 32.72%

[FUBeAR]

A matrix of the data available / calculated…a little difficult to read outside of a table…sorry.

All Avg Rtng % Rank Team Rush ATT Rtng % Pass ATT Rtng % Recptns Rtng % Off Rtng % Rank Avg Off Rtng % Def Rtng % Rank Tackles Rtng % All Avg Rtng % Rank All Avg %
1 Woff 99.54 99.21 69.86 1 89.54 2 67.01 1 78.28
2 Chatt 36.44 100.00 59.57 2 65.34 3 62.70 2 64.02
3 WCU 56.62 93.75 45.59 3 65.32 4 56.29 3 60.81
4 ETSU 62.23 44.54 32.35 4 46.37 6 47.90 4 47.14
5 VMI 50.25 30.70 31.58 5 37.51 5 55.02 5 46.27
6 Mercer 33.20 0.98 32.51 7 22.23 1 67.55 6 44.89
7 Furman 26.18 25.43 48.77 6 33.46 7 31.98 7 32.72
UNK CIT No 2024 Roster is Posted Online Yet UNK UNK
UNK Samford No 2024 Roster is Posted Online Yet UNK UNK

[apaladin]

Thanks FUBeAR. Like the original post it’s worse than I thought and your research proves it. We are not even close to Mercer which is one spot above us.

[FUBeAR]

Thanks FUBeAR. Like the original post it’s worse than I thought and your research proves it. We are not even close to Mercer which is one spot above us.

Yep.

The 2023 Furman Football Team is not going to win (m)any games for us in 2024.

Guess, in 2024, we gonna have to rely on…
* Outstanding; tops in FCS Coaching
* Consistently excellent recruiting of exceptional talent
* Unparalleled Player development
* Truly uncommon, in the portal era, Player retention

Until proven otherwise, FUBeAR’s gonna buy into those 4 attributes and EXPECT TO WIN.