SoCon Title/Playoffs

[FU Hoopla]

Also NDSU is clearly getting set up by pollsters to still make the playoffs even if they lose 1 more game to be 7-4, with 4 FCS losses and 7 mediocre wins (play only 4 road games and no FBS game)......................

[FUBeAR]

Furman holds at #2, but in terms of points, it's close with these Big Sky teams.

I think the national media seems content to let Furman stay at #2 as long as we keep winning.

Look at their individual polls, read their articles about Seeds, listen to their Podcasts about the Playoffs / Seeds.

Furman is not even in the conversation for the 2 seed ... and often not even for a top 4 seed.

SDSU, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, and SacState are the 7 Teams they have been talking about for those Top 2 / Top 4 Seeds. SIU and SacState will probably fall out of the convo after their losses to SD and MT, respectively, but that still leaves 5 that ain't Furman. Without some upsets, FUBeAR doesn't see any way the Committee puts FU in the #2 Seed...and will not be entirely shocked to see us slip to the #5 or #6 Seed ....and we're talking about winning out and going 10-0 vs. FCS of course. They screwed 10-0 in FCS Samford last year (#6 Seed) and 10-1 overall ETSU the year before (#7 Seed). FUBeAR has no reason to believe they will treat Furman any more equitably.

[Affirm]

Some of you media / marketing / interweb types - you know who you are...please weigh in with your thoughts on the ideas FUBeAR espouses below

FUBeAR, a cynical biz major, thinks its always wise to consider or 'follow the money'

In the media biz these days - Clicks = $'s

> Clicks = > $'s

Montana has one of the largest fan bases in FCS Football. Montana State is right there with them Griz and the Idaho Vandals are a former FBS Team. They are also all 'blue bloods' (as Furman was or is depending on your perspective) of FCS. They are known names and people follow these Teams. Early this season, Sam Herder talked on his podcast about being able to see where his listeners are located and that he gets hardly any from the South.

FUBeAR did an extensive study this summer on Playoff Seeding and how significant the Seeds were to projecting success in the playoffs. Not sure this study would've passed muster for a Doctorate in Statistics, but it was good enough for gub-mint work. He found it HIGHLY CORRELATED, well beyond the "of course they win, they are better, so they are seeded higher" level.

Keeping a Montana at Home for every round of the Playoffs helps them win those games and helps to keep them playing for as many as 5 more weeks....lotta clicks happen in 5 weeks

Won't bore you further...

Bottom Line - FUBeAR believes the FCS Media does everything they can to 'shape the battlefield' to get the 'bigger' Teams IN the Playoffs, to get them Seeded, and to get them more Highly Seeded. It is in their economic interests to do so.

And FUBeAR feels the entire body of their work is prevalent and pervasive.

And, FUBeAR believes the Committee's decisions are HIGHLY affected by the narratives of the FCS Media.

Outstanding.

[MNORM]

Furman holds at #2, but in terms of points, it's close with these Big Sky teams.

I think the national media seems content to let Furman stay at #2 as long as we keep winning.

Look at their individual polls, read their articles about Seeds, listen to their Podcasts about the Playoffs / Seeds.

Furman is not even in the conversation for the 2 seed ... and often not even for a top 4 seed.

SDSU, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, and SacState are the 7 Teams they have been talking about for those Top 2 / Top 4 Seeds. SIU and SacState will probably fall out of the convo after their losses to SD and MT, respectively, but that still leaves 5 that ain't Furman. Without some upsets, FUBeAR doesn't see any way the Committee puts FU in the #2 Seed...and will not be entirely shocked to see us slip to the #5 or #6 Seed ....and we're talking about winning out and going 10-0 vs. FCS of course. They screwed 10-0 in FCS Samford last year (#6 Seed) and 10-1 overall ETSU the year before (#7 Seed). FUBeAR has no reason to believe they will treat Furman any more equitably.

I hear you...but....
On October 26th, as we all know, the committee released their Top 10 and had Furman #3. I'm not sure I see a scenario where we drop out of the top 4 (assuming we win out) aside from Montana St. knocking off Montana in the final week.

[The Jackal]

Well, the committee looks at the STATs poll and when they came out with the top 10 ranking, Furman was already inside the top 5. Since that ranking was released, Furman has only won every football game they've played and beat another top 15 team.

Really the only criticism of Furman is they just don't beat anyone flashy and maybe the SoCon isn't great, but the latter seems pretty subjective. Who knows if Furman is better than Idaho? They play in different parts of the country and play no common opponents. I know last year Samford beat the team that eliminated Idaho, but what does that matter?

It's like the ESPN guys that answer the question with "who has Georgia beaten?" and the answer is "everyone."

[FUpaladin08]

Whether we want to admit it or not; according to poll rankings the best win for Montana and Idaho is better than Furman’s best win. Add Montana St to that list if they win the Brawl of the Wild. We should fully expect Furman to get similar treatment as Samford and Holy Cross got last year. The best thing going for Furman is they are #2 so I don’t think they get dropped outside of a 4 or 5 seed. Maybe in a year where so many Valley and Big Sky teams have an FCS loss things will be different? I have a feeling the winner of MSU/Montana game will be automatically slotted as the #2 seed.

[FUBeAR]

Well, the committee looks at the STATs poll and when they came out with the top 10 ranking, Furman was already inside the top 5. Since that ranking was released, Furman has only won every football game they've played and beat another top 15 team.

Really the only criticism of Furman is they just don't beat anyone flashy and maybe the SoCon isn't great, but the latter seems pretty subjective. Who knows if Furman is better than Idaho? They play in different parts of the country and play no common opponents. I know last year Samford beat the team that eliminated Idaho, but what does that matter?

It's like the ESPN guys that answer the question with "who has Georgia beaten?" and the answer is "everyone."

The STATS Poll has not been “Officially” part of the Committee’s review/decision process until this year - when they picked up deep-pocketed FedEx Ground as a sponsor. FedEx probably dropped off enough of an honorarium on the right desks in Indianapolis to get their sponsored poll to be named as part of the “official” NCAA process. In the past, the Coaches Poll was the only “official” poll. Now both are “official” …

…and besides all that nonsense, FUBeAR heard the Committee Chair say out of his own mouth last year that each Committee Member can choose whatever data / information they would like to use and weight the info they decide to use however they would like to weight it.

FUBeAR believes the Committee Members are somewhat to highly influenced by the media - AS WE ALL ARE…whether we want to be honest with ourselves and admit that or not.

BTW - here’s an example of a podcast where the PunditKid (a STATS voter - actually both of the kids on here are STATS “Official” voters) talks about how he had Furman at #2 last week and they had a good win and they are a good team…BUT Montana, Idaho, Montana State, blah, blah, blah. Condescending tip of the cap to Furman, but Big Sky and MVFC is the REAL FCS Football. The part about Furman is at the beginning, but the Big Sky /MVFC theme runs throughout…and these 2 are actually CAA homers, but they are bowing down to their larger fan base overlords now that they are part of the “official” process. And…this is just 1 example - the narrative is almost identical across the FCS Media spectrum.

https://bleav.com/shows/bleav-in-fcs-football/

[FUBeAR]

Whether we want to admit it or not; according to poll rankings the best win for Montana and Idaho is better than Furman’s best win. Add Montana St to that list if they win the Brawl of the Wild. We should fully expect Furman to get similar treatment as Samford and Holy Cross got last year. The best thing going for Furman is they are #2 so I don’t think they get dropped outside of a 4 or 5 seed. Maybe in a year where so many Valley and Big Sky teams have an FCS loss things will be different? I have a feeling the winner of MSU/Montana game will be automatically slotted as the #2 seed.

FUBeAR would like this because it’s accurate, but he hates it, so he won’t like it.

The qualifying statement “according to poll rankings” makes it true. It would be fully true if it said “according to poll rankings with obvious built-in bias”…

[gofurman]

The Stats poll is the poll that the committee looks to.

The concern for Furman, who keeps winning, is that some of these Big Sky teams win "sexier." It's hard, though, to subjectively compare Furman with the Big Sky teams because they don't remotely play the same teams.

agree. we just need to win out and it would not hurt to run it up if possible.. as much as I think that sucketh

[The Jackal]

In order to avoid flying on 3 different pontoon planes, chartering a Coast Guard Ice Breaker, and mushing a Team of Huskies the rest of the way in at some point in these Playoffs, this week, we need to…

1) Be excellent Furman Fans - expertly managing our mojo throwing to ensure a win over these very rapidly improving hippity-hoppers!

2) Be BIG fans of 6-3 Youngstown State as the Penguins host South Dakota State in their Ice Castle or Igloo or whatever frigid name they call it.

3) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Eastern Washington as the Eagles fly, ice break, and mush their way into Bozeman, MT to face Montana State

4) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Portland State as the Vikings host the Vandals of Idaho in a clash of peoples native to lands above the Arctic Circle in a desolate wasteland of a formerly great city

5) Be BIG fans of 6-3 North Dakota as the Freezin’ Hawks fly to the misnamed non-Southern land of South Dakota to face the Coyotes in a standoff of Arctic scavengers.

And … also fans of whichever other Teams are facing Teams that the National FCS Media Pundits might start pimping to take a Top 2 Seed that rightly should belong to a 10-0 in FCS Furman Team if we TCB. The ‘fix’ is already in as the FCS Media Pundits have created a #2 Seed ‘lockout’ with their rankings of MT, MTSt, and ID ahead of Furman…unless some of these non-contenders pull off upsets for us.

DO YOUR JOBS!!!

All well written, but Idaho plays Weber State. Portland State hosts Montana.

[FurmAlum]

This bias thing is real and the more I read about it the more it pisses me off. For example Sam Herder's ballot had Furman #2 for several weeks in a row. Then last week he drops us to #5. This week, after Furman wins a big game, he still has us #5, behind SDSU, MSU, MT, and Idaho.

Montana lost to a bottom feeder earlier this year and doesn't get penalized at all. Chatty, who I think deserves a bid, even at 7-4, loses a similar game to NA and they probably won't even make the playoffs.

The only way to fix this is for Furman and some other SoCon teams to go deep in the playoffs. Somebody needs to win a tough road game and I'd also love to have MSU or Montana in Paladin Stadium.

SDSU game can wait for Frisco.

Next year we need to have a Big Sky/SoCon challenge:

Montana State at Furman
Chatty at Montana
Sammy at Sac State
Idaho at Mercer
UC Davis at WCU

Of course it will never happen.

[FUBeAR]

In order to avoid flying on 3 different pontoon planes, chartering a Coast Guard Ice Breaker, and mushing a Team of Huskies the rest of the way in at some point in these Playoffs, this week, we need to…

1) Be excellent Furman Fans - expertly managing our mojo throwing to ensure a win over these very rapidly improving hippity-hoppers!

2) Be BIG fans of 6-3 Youngstown State as the Penguins host South Dakota State in their Ice Castle or Igloo or whatever frigid name they call it.

3) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Eastern Washington as the Eagles fly, ice break, and mush their way into Bozeman, MT to face Montana State

4) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Portland State as the Vikings host the Vandals of Idaho in a clash of peoples native to lands above the Arctic Circle in a desolate wasteland of a formerly great city

5) Be BIG fans of 6-3 North Dakota as the Freezin’ Hawks fly to the misnamed non-Southern land of South Dakota to face the Coyotes in a standoff of Arctic scavengers.

And … also fans of whichever other Teams are facing Teams that the National FCS Media Pundits might start pimping to take a Top 2 Seed that rightly should belong to a 10-0 in FCS Furman Team if we TCB. The ‘fix’ is already in as the FCS Media Pundits have created a #2 Seed ‘lockout’ with their rankings of MT, MTSt, and ID ahead of Furman…unless some of these non-contenders pull off upsets for us.

DO YOUR JOBS!!!

All well written, but Idaho plays Weber State. Portland State hosts Montana.

Fine - they’re all made up places and schools anyway.


* Massey’s stupid, recent chronological flip of the Teams’ schedules had/has FUBeAR discombobulated.

[apaladin]

If you are not a top 4 seed it really doesn’t matter if you are a 5 or 8 seed. Games will be regionalized so you will be playing the same teams whether you are a 5 or 8.

[The Jackal]

This bias thing is real and the more I read about it the more it pisses me off. For example Sam Herder's ballot had Furman #2 for several weeks in a row. Then last week he drops us to #5. This week, after Furman wins a big game, he still has us #5, behind SDSU, MSU, MT, and Idaho.

Montana lost to a bottom feeder earlier this year and doesn't get penalized at all. Chatty, who I think deserves a bid, even at 7-4, loses a similar game to NA and they probably won't even make the playoffs.

The only way to fix this is for Furman and some other SoCon teams to go deep in the playoffs. Somebody needs to win a tough road game and I'd also love to have MSU or Montana in Paladin Stadium.

SDSU game can wait for Frisco.

Next year we need to have a Big Sky/SoCon challenge:

Montana State at Furman
Chatty at Montana
Sammy at Sac State
Idaho at Mercer
UC Davis at WCU

Of course it will never happen.

Looking at Herosports recent resumes article, it's hard to see why everyone is upset about Furman being ahead of Montana.

Furman has more ranked wins, more FCS wins, didn't lose to an FCS team, and their strength of schedule is maybe 6 spots lower than Montana. Montana has beaten several higher ranked teams, but that tends to be subjective as we have no idea how a team like Sacramento State would stack up to a team like Western Carolina.

[AstroDin]

If you are not a top 4 seed it really doesn’t matter if you are a 5 or 8 seed. Games will be regionalized so you will be playing the same teams whether you are a 5 or 8.

I know you're not saying this, but the key for Furman this year IMO is getting a home quarterfinal game. We don't want to be heading to Montana for that matchup. If Furman has to go to Bozeman for the Semi so be it.

My fear and FuBear speak to this - some in the media are pushing for all the seeds to be MVC and Big Sky. Which would leave Furman out of a seed. This weekend the MVC will cannibalize itself.

SIU (6-3) #11 @ NDSU (6-3) #12, one of these teams will have 4 losses after this weekend.
I think we want SDSU to win at YSU. As much as we could dream of Furman nabbing the one-spot, we don't need more excuses for the playoff committee to load the bracket with seven MVC teams.
I forgot about one more MVC team that could jump Furman and grab a seed if they win out South Dakota.

The media darling of the MVC is Northern Iowa. The following weekend NDSU is at UNI.

The Big Sky also could cannibalize itself some. This weekend;
Idaho is at Weber State. Weber is hot and cold, but this will be a big game.
The following weekend is the big rivalry weekend for the Big Sky.
MSU @ Montana
Sac St @ UC Davis
Idaho St @ Idaho