SoCon Title/Playoffs

[FUBeAR]

WCU is almost assured of a seed as they have no one left on their schedule. Most likely they will finish 9-2.

School Conf. Overall
Western Carolina 3-2 5-3

[Davemeister]

After yesterday's game & the Citadel game, I'm not sure home playoff games will be to our advantage!

[FUBeAR]

After yesterday's game & the Citadel game, I'm not sure home playoff games will be to our advantage!

This picture says that they are…

[gman84]

:
After yesterday's game & the Citadel game, I'm not sure home playoff games will be to our advantage!

You can’t be serious. We have been complaining about the bias and advantages the MVC has had when seeding the playoff field. We are in a position to hopefully change things. We also bitch that we only get 6 home games when we have a 12 game season. Give me home games any time!!

[Affirm]

12
23
28
11
As of today, Sagarin has Furman rated as the #12 best team in FCS. That is great.
Sagarin now has Chattanooga as the #23 best team in FCS.
Sagarin has Western Carolina as the #28 best team in FCS.
I believe we have a very hard opponent in Chattanooga.
We really need to beat Chattanooga. To be redundant and emphatic, it is going to be very hard to beat Chattanooga.
To be admittedly negative, but realistic nevertheless, if we cannot beat Chattanooga, we are going to have a hard time if we get to the playoffs and have to face one of those 11 teams that are presently rated ahead of Furman in Sagarin.
Beat Chattanooga!

[The Jackal]

The game against UTC is important regardless of what some computer model thinks.

[apaladin]

Hard to believe it has been 33 years since FU has won an outright championship. Let’s do this!

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR did some cipherin' - Is he correct?

Scenario 1) Chatt beats Furman AND Furman beats BOTH VMI & Wofford
——- Chatt and Furman are both SoCon Champions at 7-1
——- Chatt earns the SoCon AutoBid


Scenario 2) Chatt beats Furman AND Furman loses to EITHER VMI OR Wofford OR loses to BOTH
——- Chatt, at 7-1, is the outright SoCon Champion, over 6-2 or 5-3 Furman and any other SoCon Team with 2 or more losses
——- Chatt earns the SoCon AutoBid


Scenario 3) Furman beats Chatt AND Furman beats BOTH VMI AND Wofford
——- Furman, at 8-0, is the outright SoCon Champion, over 6-2 Chatt and any other SoCon Team with 2 or more losses
——- Furman earns the SoCon AutoBid


Scenario 4) Furman beats Chatt AND Furman loses to EITHER VMI OR Wofford, BUT ONLY to 1 of those 2
——- Furman, at 7-1, is the outright SoCon Champion, over 6-2 Chatt and any other SoCon Team with 2 or more losses
——- Furman earns the SoCon AutoBid


Scenario 5 AKA "She Complicated" - Furman beats Chatt AND Furman loses to BOTH VMI AND Wofford
——- Furman AND Chatt, both at 6-2 would both be SoCon Champions AND IF...

---------- Scenario 5a) Mercer loses to EITHER OR BOTH The Citadel AND/OR Samford AND WCU loses to ANY OR ALL of Wofford AND/OR ETSU, AND/OR VMI
-------------------- Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of the head-to-head win over Chatt

---------- Scenario 5b) Mercer defeats The Citadel AND Samford AND WCU defeats Wofford AND ETSU, AND VMI.
-------------------- Furman, Chatt, Mercer, and WCU, ALL at 6-2 are ALL SoCon Champs
-------------------- Per the SoCon Tie-breaking Procedure - https://static.soconsports.com/custo...s_football.pdf - Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of a 3-0 record among the other tied Teams with records of Chatt 1-2, Mercer 1-2, WCU 1-2

---------- Scenario 5c) Mercer defeats The Citadel AND Samford, but WCU loses to any of Wofford OR ETSU, OR VMI
-------------------- Furman, Chatt, AND Mercer, ALL at 6-2, are ALL SoCon Champs
-------------------- Per the SoCon Tie-breaking Procedure - https://static.soconsports.com/custo...s_football.pdf - Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of a 2-0 record among the other tied Teams with records of Chatt 1-1, Mercer 0-2

---------- Scenario 5d) Mercer loses to The Citadel OR Samford OR BOTH, AND WCU defeats Wofford AND ETSU, AND VMI
-------------------- Furman, Chatt, AND WCU, ALL at 6-2, are ALL SoCon Champs
-------------------- Per the SoCon Tie-breaking Procedure - https://static.soconsports.com/custo...s_football.pdf - Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of a 2-0 record among the other tied Teams with records of Chatt 0-2, WCU 1-1


Summarizing....
1) IF Furman defeats Chatt, Furman earns at least a share of the SoCon Championship AND the SoCon AutoBid
2) IF Furman defeats Chatt AND wins 1 more regular season game over either of 2 Teams with current combined records of 2-8/3-13, Furman wins the outright SoCon Championship and, of course, the previously secured AutoBid
3) IF Chatt defeats Furman, Chatt earns at least a share of the SoCon Championship AND the SoCon AutoBid
4) IF Chatt defeats Furman AND Furman loses 1 more regular season game to either of 2 Teams with current combined records of 2-8/3-13, Chatt wins the outright SoCon Championship and, of course, the previously secured AutoBid
5) Mercer AND/OR WCU can still earn a share of the SoCon Championship IF Furman defeats Chatt, then Furman 'loses out' AND EITHER or BOTH of them 'win out.'
6) Although Mercer AND/OR WCU can still earn a share of the SoCon Championship, they have no path to earn the SoCon AutoBid

Make sense?

[FUBeAR]

DPLOT

[Paul C]

Make sense?

It made sense the first time

[gofurman]

Win ‘em all.

That said, as I think it was Jackal noted…. Oddly it is better to beat utc and lose a bad game - scenario 4, than scenario 1 where our loss is to a very good utc but we beat the lesser teams. Beat utc and take a loss to vmi and we have an auto bid

[FUBeAR]

Make sense?

It made sense the first time

That’s been happening a lot recently.

Reckon did Bootie let that snake rattle get too close to the machinery at TheUFFP factory during one of those HQ Summit / Planning meetings they had there before the mission to Cullowhee?

[The Jackal]

Win ‘em all.

That said, as I think it was Jackal noted…. Oddly it is better to beat utc and lose a bad game - scenario 4, than scenario 1 where our loss is to a very good utc but we beat the lesser teams. Beat utc and take a loss to vmi and we have an auto bid

My comment on that was really only when there is a three way tie for first. That's unlikely, because the only way I believe that could happen is if Furman beats UTC and loses to VMI and Wofford, then you could potentially have a 4 way tie at the top of two loss teams.

Honestly, it felt for all the world like the WCU game was going to be for all the marbles, but this Saturday is absolutely massive for both Furman and Chattanooga.

[FUBeAR]

Win ‘em all.

That said, as I think it was Jackal noted…. Oddly it is better to beat utc and lose a bad game - scenario 4, than scenario 1 where our loss is to a very good utc but we beat the lesser teams. Beat utc and take a loss to vmi and we have an auto bid

My comment on that was really only when there is a three way tie for first. That's unlikely, because the only way I believe that could happen is if Furman beats UTC and loses to VMI and Wofford, then you could potentially have a 4 way tie at the top of two loss teams.

Honestly, it felt for all the world like the WCU game was going to be for all the marbles, but this Saturday is absolutely massive for both Furman and Chattanooga.

FUBeAR didn’t understand your original comment nor gf’s reprisal of it.

But - a 3-way tie for the SoCon Championship is definitely possible - Scenarios 5c) and 5d) describe the 2 ways that can happen. The first 2 components are as you describe - FU beating Chatt and FU losing to VMI AND to Wofford - and then 1 of, but not both, Mercer OR WCU winning their remaining 2 OR 3 SoCon games, respectively.

Yes - highly unlikely.

If FUBeAR is mathing correctly (also highly unlikely), Massey assigns the following % chances to ….

3-way tie between…
FU, UTC, and Mercer = 0.03% or 3 in 10,000
FU, UTC, and WCU = 0.02% or 2 in 10,000

And - Yep - this FU @ Chatt game is the de facto (near) SoCon Championship Game…

Winner gets …
SoCon AutoBid AND at least a share of the SoCon Championship.

Loser can still get a share of the SoCon Championship. Again, with the likely incorrect Massey-FUBeAR math…

IF FU loses, the Paladins still have a 92% chance of gaining a share of the SoCon Championship and about a 98% chance of, most likely (IFBO), receiving an At-Large berth in the Playoffs.

IF Chatt loses, the Moc have a 0.12% chance of gaining a share of the SoCon Championship and, most likely (IFBO), a 0% chance of receiving an At-Large berth in the Playoffs.

Chatt DEFINITELY has more to lose on Saturday and we need to make sure they do just that!

And…FWIW…

Massey says the following about Mercer and WCU getting to 8-3, which FUBeAR thinks gets either / both IN the Playoffs, with 7-4 or worse getting neither / nor IN the Playoffs

Mercer = 47% chance of getting to 8-3
WCU = 40% chance of getting to 8-3

Mercer’s chances increase to 51% with a win over 0-8 The Citadel this week and WCU’s chances increase to 55% with a win over 0-8 Wofford this week.

So…yeah … if Chatt, Mercer, and WCU win this week, the chances, IFBO, of the SoCon getting 4 Teams in the Playoffs are 27% and improving, but 3 is plenty, and FUBeAR would be fine with the ‘right’ 2 even…and just maybe with the loss to FU and a good showing in Tuscaloosa, the Committee will take pity on how the Mocs have blown (or quit from) their solid Playoff chances each of the past 3 (soon-to-be…hopefully) 4 seasons.

[HKB60]

The only thing is to win them all! We do not need to play the scenario game and just focus on winning. Every game left is a BIG game!!! We are way overdue for an outright SOCON title. With Montana State losing we should be bumped up to #2. Assuring us home field advantage till the trip to Frisco!