"Smart money"

[Jasper]

Haven't seen any of the online betting sites post the line for Saturday's Furman- WCC game as yet. They often don't post FDCS games odds until Friday or Saturday. I would not be surprised if the bookies make #14 WCC a favorite over FU by about 6 points. That would be the result of the "eye" test of comparable performances of the two squads this year. Furman has won all its FCS games but by narrow margins whereas WCC has been much more dominating in their games. They have a huge O line, a great RB and an excellent passer. They can obviously score a lot of points and are very impressive on paper and in person. However, what Furman does is win games, no matter how close the outcome. They somehow know how to beat the other team on the day they play. So called smart money may be missing that fact. The only thing that matters at the end of the game is who has the most points. There are no style points in football. I will very gladly take an "ugly" win at WCC on Saturday and look forward to whatever points the book wants to gift me. I am not suggesting that one bet the whole farm on the game but certainly put the livestock and equipment on the line if the price is right. Has anyone seen a line yet?

[The Cats]

First betting lines....


Favorite - Line - Underdog
Furman -0.02 WESTERN CAROLINA
CHATTY -15.07 ETSU
MERCER -21.04 Wofford
Samford -14.00 VMI


www.collegefootballpoll.com/fcs/weekly-picks/

[youwouldno]

FCS opening lines are set by computer. Easy wins but very low betting limits - even a 2/3 win rate wasn't worth continuing after getting a job.

I remember one year, western Illinois defense was so bad it like broke the algorithm and betting the over or against WIU was a near automatic win every week.

[FUwolfpacker]

FCS fans nation pod has a thing with versus sports simulator which set the line at WCU as an 11.5 favorite with a 77 point over/under. All three thought that the 11.5 was a bit too high, but 2 out of 3 picked Western to win.

[FUBeAR]

FCS fans nation pod has a thing with versus sports simulator which set the line at WCU as an 11.5 favorite with a 77 point over/under. All three thought that the 11.5 was a bit too high, but 2 out of 3 picked Western to win.

Sports Simulators are hilarious and many FCS pundits can be clowns as well. They definitely do not like the SoCon. Most of the FCS Pundits are picking WCU because they are just “lighting up the scoreboard” and “winning dominantly.” Well - FUBeAR did a deep-dive data analysis and built projections models based on Yards/Yards Allowed vs Avg Yds Allowed/Avg Yards for each opponent for WCU and for FU. Did the same for Points - it’s all on AGS…wouldn’t format well here.

Quick Take - both Teams are playing similarly well across all of their opponents. WCU’s numbers are higher to the good and bad sides of things. Don’t let the high yards / points totals fool ya - This, from a handicapping perspective is no more than a 3 point game. Based on his analysis FUBeAR would say the ‘right’ line is WCU -2.5 with an O/U in the 68-72 range.

Hey - here’s an awesome simulator…

It also predicted WCU over UGA 5 of 7 times. They guy pitching it has a son on the WCU Team.

[KingPaladin]

FCS fans nation pod has a thing with versus sports simulator which set the line at WCU as an 11.5 favorite with a 77 point over/under. All three thought that the 11.5 was a bit too high, but 2 out of 3 picked Western to win.

FCS Nation is either a Citadel or Western fan, I can't remember. Even outside of that they still pray on Furman's downfall most of the time

[FUBeAR]

FCS fans nation pod has a thing with versus sports simulator which set the line at WCU as an 11.5 favorite with a 77 point over/under. All three thought that the 11.5 was a bit too high, but 2 out of 3 picked Western to win.

FCS Nation is either a Citadel or Western fan, I can't remember. Even outside of that they still pray on Furman's downfall most of the time

Not exactly.

FCS Nation Radio's guy, Kevin Marshall, is the fan of The Citadel that FUBeAR thinks you are recalling. He is an alumni bellhop, but his mother is a Furman graduate. He lives in Montana. While it's a tragedy anyone would be a bellhop, Kevin is objective and generally positive about the SoCon. He is very much anti-Furman, as one would expect, but his SoCon bias and desire for objectivity usually comes through with fair and objective takes / assessments. FUBeAR enjoys Kevin's and his co-host - Stone L.'s - a former Missouri State QB - work.

FCS Fans Nation, best FUBeAR can tell, is 3 dudes led by Matthew Fraase, a biased NDSU / MVFC Fan, Jamie Williams, a biased JMU / CAA Fan, and Kylor Neale, a biased EWU / Big Sky Fan. Put those 3 schools / 3 conferences together and the Anti-SoCon / Anti-Furman bias is vivid. That said, they are smart guys, they know FCS Football, and they are affable enough. They refuse to recognize their biases however.

All of them want to see WCU rise and Furman fall. They incorrectly view WCU as the lovable underdog and Furman as the oppressor. So, funny that the private school with 2,500 students and highly selective academics is viewed as evil Goliath vs. lovable David....when "David" is 5 times "Goliath's" size, is state funded, and has a more flexible admissions profile.

BUT - look at the pundits - all FANS of large state schools - they really get uncomfortable that a small, private, academic might challenge their Teams in Football.

[KingPaladin]

FCS fans nation pod has a thing with versus sports simulator which set the line at WCU as an 11.5 favorite with a 77 point over/under. All three thought that the 11.5 was a bit too high, but 2 out of 3 picked Western to win.

FCS Nation is either a Citadel or Western fan, I can't remember. Even outside of that they still pray on Furman's downfall most of the time

Not exactly.

FCS Nation Radio's guy, Kevin Marshall, is the fan of The Citadel that FUBeAR thinks you are recalling. He is an alumni bellhop, but his mother is a Furman graduate. He lives in Montana. While it's a tragedy anyone would be a bellhop, Kevin is objective and generally positive about the SoCon. He is very much anti-Furman, as one would expect, but his SoCon bias and desire for objectivity usually comes through with fair and objective takes / assessments. FUBeAR enjoys Kevin's and his co-host - Stone L.'s - a former Missouri State QB - work.

FCS Fans Nation, best FUBeAR can tell, is 3 dudes led by Matthew Fraase, a biased NDSU / MVFC Fan, Jamie Williams, a biased JMU / CAA Fan, and Kylor Neale, a biased EWU / Big Sky Fan. Put those 3 schools / 3 conferences together and the Anti-SoCon / Anti-Furman bias is vivid. That said, they are smart guys, they know FCS Football, and they are affable enough. They refuse to recognize their biases however.

That must be the Citadel one I was thinking of. They have tweeted some interesting anti-Furman stuff for sure

[FurmanFan23]

Imagine being a citadel fan. 0-6 sounds like alot of fun

[gofurman]

Personally, I think a legitimate line would be WCU by 9

[youwouldno]

Anyone willing to give me 9 points vs WCU, please reach out to arrange a wager.

[FUwolfpacker]

That must be the Citadel one I was thinking of. They have tweeted some interesting anti-Furman stuff for sure

Bear covered who the people are but you were thinking of FCS Nation, and I was talking about the FCS Fans Nation guys who Bear described above. My original post was mostly a joke as I thought most people would think 11.5 was a little too high regardless of your team. Of course I don't gamble at all so what do I know.

He definitely has tweeted anti-furman stuff when Furman/Citadel play, but he's also the biggest SoCon supporter among the most popular FCS fan led podcast. Despite his bellhopness, it's good to have someone in that realm defending the SoCon. I don't always agree with how he does it, but still good to have someone (besides FUbear) doing it.

Bear would probably disagree, but The Bluebloods or Sam Herder's podcast are probably the least biased out there (in my opinion). Since the original post was talking about betting lines, I know there is a very betting focused FCS podcast that FUbear seems to like who is pretty unbaised and does seem to do their research most of the time. Can't remember the name. I'm sure bear will come in with the assist.

[FUBeAR]

That must be the Citadel one I was thinking of. They have tweeted some interesting anti-Furman stuff for sure

Bear covered who the people are but you were thinking of FCS Nation, and I was talking about the FCS Fans Nation guys who Bear described above. My original post was mostly a joke as I thought most people would think 11.5 was a little too high regardless of your team. Of course I don't gamble at all so what do I know.

He definitely has tweeted anti-furman stuff when Furman/Citadel play, but he's also the biggest SoCon supporter among the most popular FCS fan led podcast. Despite his bellhopness, it's good to have someone in that realm defending the SoCon. I don't always agree with how he does it, but still good to have someone (besides FUbear) doing it.

Bear would probably disagree, but The Bluebloods or Sam Herder's podcast are probably the least biased out there (in my opinion). Since the original post was talking about betting lines, I know there is a very betting focused FCS podcast that FUbear seems to like who is pretty unbaised and does seem to do their research most of the time. Can't remember the name. I'm sure bear will come in with the assist.

This reminds FUBeAR of an SNL skit - FCS Nation vs. FCS Fans Nation vs. FCS Radio Nation ... but can't recall the SNL skit exactly ...if he thinks of it, he'll let y'all know....anyway...

Sam Herder - hides his Bison bias well. Tries too hard to act like he's super-super-duper objective...but colors things a certain way to support his own agenda. The recent NO-News Article he released about Non-D1 Wins counting is a great example of that. There was NO news there, but he wrote it to make sure EVERYONE (especially FCS Playoff Selection Committee Members) knows D2 wins are supposed to count because Montana has a D2 win and was starting to look like a bubble Team. He makes his money based on clicks/follows - He wants the BIG fans bases to be IN the conversation AND IN the playoffs as long as possible. Montana's fan base is as big as any - including NDSU. Don't love him - though most do - just come across to FUBeAR as kind of an Eddie Haskell-type.

Bluebloods - knows his/their stuff. Likeable enough. Gives honest opinions. Heavy focus on HBCU's/SWAC - not fully in on Playoffs, so FUBeAR ain't as interested in all that. Voice patterns / mannerisms are kind of annoying, but can get comfortable with them after a while. Not bad. Sincere...and that matters to FUBeAR.

The Betting-Focused one to which you are referring...FUBeAR thinks...is the FCS College Football Experience - part of the SGPN - Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Love everything about it - ColbyD and the Gulf Coast Guru know their ish and are entertaining as heck...and they are passionate about FBS Football. If not, they fake it real well. And Colby does FCS and College Basketball AND College Baseball....guy must talk 15 hours/day....yeah - these dudes will entertain - Oh - their style is a bit Vegas / Philly -- so not subtle and a bit cheesy - carnival barker - Early Ted Turner Superstation - Used Car - kind of schtick - so some Furmanites may find that repugnant....not FUBeAR - he resembles all of those. But ... if you listen to just one of their shows and pay attention...most of you will learn/know more about FCS Football from that hour than you have learned in the rest of your life. Fact-filled and FUN ... like FUBeAR!


Also - not mentioned - but not a fan of Craig Haley either. He was (one of) the first to carve out an FCS niche. First isn’t always the best.

Also2 - FUBeAR likes Brian McLaughlin - nice guy - used to like his FCS work, but he’s kinda drifted in the last 2 or 3 years and now seems a little adrift lost at sea - also he’s a Kerwin Bell FanBoy…so that’s not appealing to FUBeAR.

[FUwolfpacker]

The Betting-Focused one to which you are referring...FUBeAR thinks...is the FCS College Football Experience - part of the SGPN - Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Love everything about it - ColbyD and the Gulf Coast Guru know their ish and are entertaining as heck...and they are passionate about FCS Football. If not, they fake it real well. And Colby does FCS and College Basketball AND College Baseball....guy must talk 15 hours/day....yeah - these dudes will entertain - Oh - their style is a bit Vegas / Philly -- so not subtle and a bit cheesy - carnival barker - Early Ted Turner Superstation - Used Car - kind of schtick - so some Furmanites may find that repugnant....not FUBeAR - he resembles all of those. But ... if you listen to just one of their shows and pay attention...most of you will learn/know more about FCS Football from that hour than you have learned in the rest of your life. Fact-filled and FUN ... like FUBeAR!

Perfect description...I have no notes

I could definitely see some on here absolutely hating their style (doesn't bother me...most of the time), but I do like that they seem legitimately interested in FCS football and aren't just being told they have to cover it.

[MNORM]

Imagine being a citadel fan. 0-6 sounds like alot of fun

Citadel is a volleyball school.......