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 #77096  by Paul C
 Thu Oct 12, 2023 12:19 pm
Just checked the weather for the ride down and it's gonna be WINDY in BHAM on Sat....12 gusting 17 kts....

might cause some probs with them airing it out as much as they do. I remember our resident data scientist FUBeaR doing some data mining and showing us how the Hatch Attack fares on windy days....
 #77097  by FUBeAR
 Thu Oct 12, 2023 12:32 pm
Paul C wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2023 12:19 pm
Just checked the weather for the ride down and it's gonna be WINDY in BHAM on Sat....12 gusting 17 kts....

might cause some probs with them airing it out as much as they do. I remember our resident data scientist FUBeaR doing some data mining and showing us how the Hatch Attack fares on windy days....
Image
 #77102  by Affirm
 Thu Oct 12, 2023 8:49 pm
gofurman wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2023 9:03 am
The Jackal wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2023 6:48 am
More dangerous how? They're both good football teams.

Mercer leads Samford in many statistical categories and virtually every defensive category.
Just my "eyeball" test. We will find out this weekend. We beat Mercer 38-14. Ya'll often tell me it is points that matter. I will be shocked if we beat Samford like that. I will take a 1-point win.

*I do realize this game is on the road ...

When you pull the game up on ESPN Samford has the statistical top QB , WR, and RB in this game. I realize we spread the ball around but it is rare in a game like this where we feel we are favored to see the other team have all 3 of those. As an example, Mercer v UTC - UTC (look on the ESPN page of Socon games this weekend) has the leading passer (Artopeus) but Mercer has the leading WR (James). Weird that a favored team wouldn't have any of the 3.

Again, I get the context. We spread the ball around. It is just my eye test that Samford is more of a threat. We beat Mercer last year and this year. Sammy beat us last year. So there is that. And I watched some of Sammy beat Woffd. They make some nice throws. Hard to defend. I think we are going to need 20/25+ points to win this game. In short, Heirs already has 1700+ yrads passing! That's a scare

Also, Sammy made a strong run in the playoffs last year. Mercer has yet to quite make the playoffs... always seem to not quite over the hump. And I respect Mercer and Cronic A LOT.

Sammy also OUTGAINED UTC. That is something I don't think Mercer could do. They only lost because of turnovers... which count but still it shows potential. they put 470+ yards on UTC. The talent is there. That's a scary offensive output
Yes Samford is a threat
 #77107  by apaladin
 Thu Oct 12, 2023 11:21 pm
Paul C wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2023 12:19 pm
Just checked the weather for the ride down and it's gonna be WINDY in BHAM on Sat....12 gusting 17 kts....

might cause some probs with them airing it out as much as they do. I remember our resident data scientist FUBeaR doing some data mining and showing us how the Hatch Attack fares on windy days....
It will do the same for the FU passing game too, oh wait FU rarely throws deep so nevermind. :D
 #77108  by apaladin
 Thu Oct 12, 2023 11:34 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2023 10:11 am
apaladin wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2023 9:34 am
Samford and Furman are similar in that neither has lived up to potential/expectations. Furman has been lucky enough to have the softer schedule thus the better record. Oddly FU can lose this game and still control its own destiny. With that said a loss Saturday and the odds of beating both WCU and UTC on the road go way down.
I'm sorry - do what now?

Furman was expected to be 4-1 at this point in the season. You may think we should have beaten teams more convincingly or looked prettier doing it, but this is exactly where people thought Furman would be.

Samford was a top 10 team and got hammered by two SoCon schools. When was the last time Furman got thrashed in a conference game? Maybe the Mercer game in September of '21?

It's a positive, I guess, that Furman's expectations are high enough that we can be in the top 5, have won 8 straight conference games, and folks are still complaining.
Exactly my point, SU has not lived up to expectations and even though the FU record is what was expected they have not looked particularly strong in doing it against some pretty bad opponents. FU is not hitting on all cylinders. Hopefully that comes Saturday.
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 #77109  by FUBeAR
 Fri Oct 13, 2023 12:41 am
Now we're getting serious. This game matters. It matters for the SoCon and it matters nationally in FCS. Every TV in Cullowhee (all 3 of them) will be tuned in. It also matters to these Furman Players who have heard repeatedly and told themselves every day since 12/4/22..."y'all didn't win nothing" ... and they feel like they allowed the winning of the 2022 SoCon Championship to be stolen from them. They know they didn't respond as Champions do, but they also feel like there is an unsettled score on that front. Although many of them won't be the same Players, Furman will feel as if the Players they are lining up against Saturday have been wearing their 2022 SoCon Championship rings. FUBeAR expects Furman to play serious this week and to beat Samford 'like they stole something.'

FINAL SCORE: Furman 31 - Samford 6
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 #77116  by The Jackal
 Fri Oct 13, 2023 6:48 am
It's amusing to think that Samford's got a team full of players that didn't play in last year's game, and Furman's got a small army of dudes holding receipts.

After our players called the Mercer game "personal," I can only imagine how they feel about Samford. That edge worked against Mercer. We'll see what it does against the Bulldogs.
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 #77119  by The Jackal
 Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:36 am
Couple of thoughts after reading the game notes:

1. I had forgotten Roberto dominated Samford in Seibert two years ago. 216 yards on the ground.

2. Looks like it'll be Roberto, Hicks, and, I guess, Anderson in the backfield for Furman. Not as much depth as we started with, but I'll take those three over most of the backs in the conference.

3. With the injuries in the backfield, we may see more three TE sets instead of the two RB sets with Chappell or Gissinger as the H back.

4. Last season, Samford won by 7 in a game where just about everything broke their way. They obviously got the big call. Furman played with their backup QB. Despite out gaining Samford, throwing for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, Furman uncharacteristically fumbled three times. I don't foresee Samford getting all of those breaks tomorrow.

5. I think we'll be the most physical team Samford has played outside of Auburn. Furman's going to come in with an edge. With the possible exception of South Carolina, Furman's been the more aggressive physical team in every game they've played this season.

6. None of Samford's defenders have played Tyler Huff.

7. Speaking of Huff, outside of Auburn's Payton Thorne, Samford really hasn't played a true run threat at QB this year. Thorne ran all over them.

Cole Gonzalez, WCU's QB, ran for 70 yards against the Bulldogs on 13 carries. Gonzalez has not attempted more than three rushes against any other team, and his season high outside of Samford is 15 total rushing yards.

Gonzalez is a capable runner, but he's not Huff in that department. Thorne ran for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Riddell, who has been playing injured most of the year, ran for 40. I suspect Huff could have a big day, especially with the way Samford spreads out their defense.
 #77122  by gofurman
 Fri Oct 13, 2023 11:54 am
The Jackal wrote:
Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:36 am
Couple of thoughts after reading the game notes:

1. I had forgotten Roberto dominated Samford in Seibert two years ago. 216 yards on the ground.

2. Looks like it'll be Roberto, Hicks, and, I guess, Anderson in the backfield for Furman. Not as much depth as we started with, but I'll take those three over most of the backs in the conference.

3. With the injuries in the backfield, we may see more three TE sets instead of the two RB sets with Chappell or Gissinger as the H back.

4. Last season, Samford won by 7 in a game where just about everything broke their way. They obviously got the big call. Furman played with their backup QB. Despite out gaining Samford, throwing for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, Furman uncharacteristically fumbled three times. I don't foresee Samford getting all of those breaks tomorrow.

5. I think we'll be the most physical team Samford has played outside of Auburn. Furman's going to come in with an edge. With the possible exception of South Carolina, Furman's been the more aggressive physical team in every game they've played this season.

6. None of Samford's defenders have played Tyler Huff.

7. Speaking of Huff, outside of Auburn's Payton Thorne, Samford really hasn't played a true run threat at QB this year. Thorne ran all over them.

Cole Gonzalez, WCU's QB, ran for 70 yards against the Bulldogs on 13 carries. Gonzalez has not attempted more than three rushes against any other team, and his season high outside of Samford is 15 total rushing yards.

Gonzalez is a capable runner, but he's not Huff in that department. Thorne ran for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Riddell, who has been playing injured most of the year, ran for 40. I suspect Huff could have a big day, especially with the way Samford spreads out their defense.
Great points Jacksl.
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