2023 Schedule

[apaladin]

Bold prediction for this year!

[Affirm]

This is a typical example of the insidious MVFC / Big Sky / CAA propaganda that is designed to set negativism in the minds of the Poll Voters and suppress Furman’s ranking…

“Well, we better not move Furman to #1 in our poll. We know they are currently undefeated with a win over an SEC Team, but they still have that expected loss up in Cullowhee in late October, so we don’t want to look stupid having them #1 when they lose to WCU. So, we’ll just play it safe and keep SDSU, NDSU, Montana State, and William & Mary propped up ahead of the Paladins.”

…which ultimately suppresses the Seed that Furman will be ‘gifted’ by the Playoff Committee…

“Gosh, it was so hard, given that Furman is 11-0 with an SEC FBS win, but when we looked at the overall strength of schedule and their resume, with TTU and KSU finishing below .500, and all the other SoCon Teams all beating each other up, leaving none of them better than 7-4, and out of the Playoff field (despite no OOC losses for the Top 4 Teams, 2 of which also had FBS wins), we just felt, after all was said and done, that the #5 Seed, right where the poll voters have the Paladins ranked, was the right spot for Furman.

And, after they play & defeat, 9-2, 7th ranked, but unseeded, Richmond, 21-17, in Round 2, traveling to the quarterfinals in Missoula, MT to play, 9-2, #4 Seed Montana (who the previous week defeated surprise Round 2 participant, Robert Morris (who upset Fordham in Round 1) 63-0) on December 9th in -20 degree temps in the middle of a white-out blizzard shouldn’t really cause any problems for Furman to get to the Semi-Finals this year (most likely in Fargo or Bozeman)….y’know, if they are really all that good.”

RELEVANT NOTES…
* NDSU & SDSU don’t play each other until 11/4.
* NDSU has no FBS game and has no OOC opponents ranked in the Top 20
* SDSU has no FBS game and, other than the exception noted below, faces no ranked OOC opponents
* Montana State has no FBS game and, other than the exception noted below, faces no ranked OOC opponents
* SDSU & Montana State do meet in Week 2 after ‘cupcake’ openers for both. The loser of that game won’t drop out of the top 3 cuz… “just too early to really drop Teams of this caliber for a loss to another top Team” … “That game was just a clash of heavyweights. It’s a shame either Team had to lose. Certainly no shame (translated to ‘no drop in rankings’) in losing to that caliber of an opponent this early in the season.”… “could be our Frisco preview” (ad infinitum & ad nauseum)
* William & Mary does not play a Team ranked in the Top 25 and their FBS game is not until October

….They did it to ETSU in 2021, causing a 10-1 Team with an SEC FBS win, that should have been a Top 4 Seed, to end up with a #7 Seed…
…and they did it to Samford in 2022, causing a 10-1 Team that only lost to the FBS National Champion, and should have been a #1 or #2 Seed, to end up with a #6 Seed…
…and they’ll do it to FU this year…
…watch.

#TripleStackedDeck #DefundTheCommittee

Excellent commentary. Thank you.

[Davemeister]

Herder's game-by-game analysis pretty much follows my thinking. We will most likely lose in Columbia and then slip up somewhere else along the way, and Cullowhee is as likely a place as any.

[The Cats]

[/img]https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.24662b7f4b7 ... ImgRaw&r=0[/img]

This is a typical example of the insidious MVFC / Big Sky / CAA propaganda that is designed to set negativism in the minds of the Poll Voters and suppress Furman’s ranking…

“Well, we better not move Furman to #1 in our poll. We know they are currently undefeated with a win over an SEC Team, but they still have that expected loss up in Cullowhee in late October, so we don’t want to look stupid having them #1 when they lose to WCU. So, we’ll just play it safe and keep SDSU, NDSU, Montana State, and William & Mary propped up ahead of the Paladins.”

…which ultimately suppresses the Seed that Furman will be ‘gifted’ by the Playoff Committee…

“Gosh, it was so hard, given that Furman is 11-0 with an SEC FBS win, but when we looked at the overall strength of schedule and their resume, with TTU and KSU finishing below .500, and all the other SoCon Teams all beating each other up, leaving none of them better than 7-4, and out of the Playoff field (despite no OOC losses for the Top 4 Teams, 2 of which also had FBS wins), we just felt, after all was said and done, that the #5 Seed, right where the poll voters have the Paladins ranked, was the right spot for Furman.

And, after they play & defeat, 9-2, 7th ranked, but unseeded, Richmond, 21-17, in Round 2, traveling to the quarterfinals in Missoula, MT to play, 9-2, #4 Seed Montana (who the previous week coasted to a 63-0 romp-in-the-park over surprise Round 2 participant, unranked, 6-5 NEC Champion, Robert Morris (who upset unranked 7-4 Patriot League Champion, Fordham, in Round 1)) on December 9th in -20 degree temps in the middle of a white-out blizzard shouldn’t really cause any problems for Furman to get to the Semi-Finals this year (most likely in Fargo or Bozeman)….y’know, if they are really all that good.”

RELEVANT NOTES…
* NDSU & SDSU don’t play each other until 11/4.
* NDSU has no FBS game and has no OOC opponents ranked in the Top 20
* SDSU has no FBS game and, other than the exception noted below, faces no ranked OOC opponents
* Montana State has no FBS game and, other than the exception noted below, faces no ranked OOC opponents
* SDSU & Montana State do meet in Week 2 after ‘cupcake’ openers for both. The loser of that game won’t drop out of the top 3 cuz… “just too early to really drop Teams of this caliber for a loss to another top Team” … “That game was just a clash of heavyweights. It’s a shame either Team had to lose. Certainly no shame (translated to ‘no drop in rankings’) in losing to that caliber of an opponent this early in the season.”… “could be our Frisco preview” (ad infinitum & ad nauseum)
* William & Mary does not play a Team ranked in the Top 25 and their FBS game is not until October

….They did it to ETSU in 2021, causing a 10-1 Team with an SEC FBS win, that should have been a Top 4 Seed, to end up with a #7 Seed…
…and they did it to Samford in 2022, causing a 10-1 Team that only lost to the FBS National Champion, and should have been a #1 or #2 Seed, to end up with a #6 Seed…
…and they’ll do it to FU this year…
…watch.

#TripleStackedDeck #DefundTheCommittee

[The Jackal]

Herder's game-by-game analysis pretty much follows my thinking. We will most likely lose in Columbia and then slip up somewhere else along the way, and Cullowhee is as likely a place as any.

It's hard to go undefeated in the SoCon. That's the exception, not the rule.

Going into the 2023 season, I think we are clearly better than four SoCon teams - the Citadel, VMI, Wofford, and ETSU. I expect we should be able to handle those four teams, three of which are at home.

There are three other teams where I think we have a talent and depth advantage, but wins will not be given lightly - Mercer, WCU, and UTC. Two of those three are on the road. If Furman trips up in SoCon play, I expect it will be in this group.

Samford is probably the only team, in my opinion, with equivalent talent and depth. That won't matter. I don't think there's a snowball's chance that after last season the Bulldogs are going to beat us. I expect Furman fans to nearly outnumber Samford fans in their own stadium. I expect we are going to run the ball all over them and make them like it.

[FUBeAR]

This is a typical example of the insidious MVFC / Big Sky / CAA propaganda that is designed to set negativism in the minds of the Poll Voters and suppress Furman’s ranking…

“Well, we better not move Furman to #1 in our poll. We know they are currently undefeated with a win over an SEC Team, but they still have that expected loss up in Cullowhee in late October, so we don’t want to look stupid having them #1 when they lose to WCU. So, we’ll just play it safe and keep SDSU, NDSU, Montana State, and William & Mary propped up ahead of the Paladins.”

…which ultimately suppresses the Seed that Furman will be ‘gifted’ by the Playoff Committee…

“Gosh, it was so hard, given that Furman is 11-0 with an SEC FBS win, but when we looked at the overall strength of schedule and their resume, with TTU and KSU finishing below .500, and all the other SoCon Teams all beating each other up, leaving none of them better than 7-4, and out of the Playoff field (despite no OOC losses for the Top 4 Teams, 2 of which also had FBS wins), we just felt, after all was said and done, that the #5 Seed, right where the poll voters have the Paladins ranked, was the right spot for Furman.

And, after they play & defeat, 9-2, 7th ranked, but unseeded, Richmond, 21-17, in Round 2, traveling to the quarterfinals in Missoula, MT to play, 9-2, #4 Seed Montana (who the previous week coasted to a 63-0 romp-in-the-park over surprise Round 2 participant, unranked, 6-5 NEC Champion, Robert Morris (who upset unranked 7-4 Patriot League Champion, Fordham, in Round 1)) on December 9th in -20 degree temps in the middle of a white-out blizzard shouldn’t really cause any problems for Furman to get to the Semi-Finals this year (most likely in Fargo or Bozeman)….y’know, if they are really all that good.”

RELEVANT NOTES…
* NDSU & SDSU don’t play each other until 11/4.
* NDSU has no FBS game and has no OOC opponents ranked in the Top 20
* SDSU has no FBS game and, other than the exception noted below, faces no ranked OOC opponents
* Montana State has no FBS game and, other than the exception noted below, faces no ranked OOC opponents
* SDSU & Montana State do meet in Week 2 after ‘cupcake’ openers for both. The loser of that game won’t drop out of the top 3 cuz… “just too early to really drop Teams of this caliber for a loss to another top Team” … “That game was just a clash of heavyweights. It’s a shame either Team had to lose. Certainly no shame (translated to ‘no drop in rankings’) in losing to that caliber of an opponent this early in the season.”… “could be our Frisco preview” (ad infinitum & ad nauseum)
* William & Mary does not play a Team ranked in the Top 25 and their FBS game is not until October

….They did it to ETSU in 2021, causing a 10-1 Team with an SEC FBS win, that should have been a Top 4 Seed, to end up with a #7 Seed…
…and they did it to Samford in 2022, causing a 10-1 Team that only lost to the FBS National Champion, and should have been a #1 or #2 Seed, to end up with a #6 Seed…
…and they’ll do it to FU this year…
…watch.

#TripleStackedDeck #DefundTheCommittee

Not bad (conceptually; posting execution - a complete disaster however - FIFY)

FUBeAR had a similar cognition as he was memorializing his thoughts, but then he remembered the recent plethora of what were once being widely similarly derided by ‘experts,’ but turned out to be true.

So….You ‘splain 10-1 ETSU’s #7 Seed with an SEC FBS win and the even more ridiculous #6 Seed that 10-1 Samford received going undefeated in FCS and only losing (by a much closer margin than several SEC Teams) to FBS National Champion, Georgia.

ETSU shoulda been Top 4 and Samford absolutely no lower than #2…but those slots are ‘reserved,’ aren’t they?

[The Jackal]

Honestly, I realize why the WCU game is one where the media pundits may say "look out" after last year.

I have no idea what happened last season against the Catamounts. Furman jumped out to three TD leads at least two or three times, but just seemed to take their foot off the gas defensively. We almost paid for it.

I think that game was a good wakeup call for our defense and really helped identify some weaknesses. I imagine that next film day was not fun for the defensive backfield. On a positive note, though, our defense played terribly and we still won.

One thing the pundits miss about that game, though, is Furman's offense. The Paladins rushed for 426 yards at over 7.5 yards a clip. Roberto alone rushed for 253 and averaged over 10 yards a carry. Furman barely even attempted to throw the ball and put up 47 points.

Personally, I feel a good bit better about Furman making adjustments to what Western Carolina does offensively than WCU adjusting to Furman. Not sure there's many adjustments to make when a 240 lbs running back is reeling off 10 yards a tote.

[FUBeAR]

Herder's game-by-game analysis pretty much follows my thinking. We will most likely lose in Columbia and then slip up somewhere else along the way, and Cullowhee is as likely a place as any.

Samford is probably the only team, in my opinion, with equivalent talent and depth.

How do you know?

Currently, Samford has 47 new Players on their 2023 online roster, including 30 new transfers. And, they lost 36 Players from last season’s roster, including 17 that had transferred in.

Revolving door worked well for the bullpups last year. With 44 total transfers on their 2023 roster, we’ll see if 2 consecutive years of having so many ‘rent-a-players’ works out for them.

[greenvegas]

Beware. Nuthin' evah' came to no good up on Cullowhee ridge.

[FUBeAR]

Beware. Nuthin' evah' came to no good up on Cullowhee ridge.

Yep - could be rough. Heard at church last Sunday night that they signed a heckuva transfer QB - Billy Joe McCallister from Tallahatchie CC. Said he’s a real high-flier.

[Paul C]

Beware. Nuthin' evah' came to no good up on Cullowhee ridge.

Yep - could be rough. Heard at church last Sunday night that they signed a heckuva transfer QB - Billy Joe McCallister from Tallahatchie CC. Said he’s a real high-flier.

FUBeAR, the kids have no idea whatcha talking about....

[FUBeAR]

Beware. Nuthin' evah' came to no good up on Cullowhee ridge.

Yep - could be rough. Heard at church last Sunday night that they signed a heckuva transfer QB - Billy Joe McCallister from Tallahatchie CC. Said he’s a real high-flier.

FUBeAR, the kids have no idea whatcha talking about....

FUBeAR posts solely for his own pleasure. If any others, regardless of any identifying qualifications, happen to enjoy and/or are enlightened by his posts, he is pleased. If not, he is unconcerned.

[apaladin]

Beware. Nuthin' evah' came to no good up on Cullowhee ridge.

Yep - could be rough. Heard at church last Sunday night that they signed a heckuva transfer QB - Billy Joe McCallister from Tallahatchie CC. Said he’s a real high-flier.

Same one from Choctaw Ridge?

[The Jackal]

Herder's game-by-game analysis pretty much follows my thinking. We will most likely lose in Columbia and then slip up somewhere else along the way, and Cullowhee is as likely a place as any.

Samford is probably the only team, in my opinion, with equivalent talent and depth.

How do you know?

Currently, Samford has 47 new Players on their 2023 online roster, including 30 new transfers. And, they lost 36 Players from last season’s roster, including 17 that had transferred in.

Revolving door worked well for the bullpups last year. With 44 total transfers on their 2023 roster, we’ll see if 2 consecutive years of having so many ‘rent-a-players’ works out for them.

I don't, really. Samford is an enigma.

Chris Hatcher bit hard into the transfer portal. Last season he tried to rebuild his defense through the portal. It appears he pretty much did that again this year. It's an interesting contrast to Furman's roster building strategy.

Honestly, last season's surprising run probably was not great for Samford's program. Chris Hatcher going into last season was on the hot seat, basically having put together a mediocre run in 7 years in Homewood. Even today, I'm not sure anyone actually believes that Hatcher and the "Hatch Attack" can actually compete for a national title. Now Hatcher is back in good graces, but I'm not sure that is better for Samford long term, who might have moved on had Hatcher put up a season more in line with what he'd done the prior 7 years.

One has to respect Samford's 11-2 run last season, but there are definitely some concerns of regression. They won some close games against not-good teams. Their defense at times was prone to completely fall apart (typical of Hatcher teams).

[FUBeAR]

Herder's game-by-game analysis pretty much follows my thinking. We will most likely lose in Columbia and then slip up somewhere else along the way, and Cullowhee is as likely a place as any.

Samford is probably the only team, in my opinion, with equivalent talent and depth.

How do you know?

Currently, Samford has 47 new Players on their 2023 online roster, including 30 new transfers. And, they lost 36 Players from last season’s roster, including 17 that had transferred in.

Revolving door worked well for the bullpups last year. With 44 total transfers on their 2023 roster, we’ll see if 2 consecutive years of having so many ‘rent-a-players’ works out for them.

I don't, really. Samford is an enigma.

Chris Hatcher bit hard into the transfer portal. Last season he tried to rebuild his defense through the portal. It appears he pretty much did that again this year. It's an interesting contrast to Furman's roster building strategy.

Honestly, last season's surprising run probably was not great for Samford's program. Chris Hatcher going into last season was on the hot seat, basically having put together a mediocre run in 7 years in Homewood. Even today, I'm not sure anyone actually believes that Hatcher and the "Hatch Attack" can actually compete for a national title. Now Hatcher is back in good graces, but I'm not sure that is better for Samford long term, who might have moved on had Hatcher put up a season more in line with what he'd done the prior 7 years.

One has to respect Samford's 11-2 run last season, but there are definitely some concerns of regression. They won some close games against not-good teams. Their defense at times was prone to completely fall apart (typical of Hatcher teams).

When FUBeAR looks at Samford’s ‘run’ last year, he sees it as telling a much broader story about the SoCon…

* 10-1, undefeated in FCS, only loss to FBS Champion Georgia
* #6 Seed that should have been a #1 or #2 Seed
* Win a Playoff game with their QB-Centered Offense with their All-American QB on the sideline, replaced by a True Freshman, who had hardly played
* Win that Playoff game over the Southland Champ, who just beat everybody’s new Big Sky darlin’, Idaho, who beat Big Sky perennial ‘star’ Montana, and had #2 Seed Big Sky Sac State beaten before giving up a score in the final minutes.
* And that Southland Champ was the only (FBS or FCS) Team that had beaten #7 Seed (that should have been the #4 Seed) UIW; until they fell in the Semi’s; after edging out Furman, only due to a very light, brief, inconsequential tug of a backside DLman’s jersey; beaten the #2 Seed; then gone into the DEATHDome in Fargo & leading by 3 scores until they succumbed halfway thru the 4th quarter

Meanwhile, in the SoCon, Samford…
* Beat Furman with the worst call in the history of college football and with Furman’s starting QB out
* Trailed SoCon cellar-dweller, VMI, at halftime
* Only led near-cellar-dweller, ETSU, by 3 late in the 4th quarter
* Went to OT with Mercer, only because Mercer, out of RB’s, and with 3 or 4 2nd or 3rd Team OLmen being their best available…could not score a TD in 7 plays inside the 5.

The point is NOT that Samford wasn’t good. They were. They were a Top Team nationally and DESERVED a Top #1 or #2 Seed, but they were also EXTREMELY fortunate to come out of the VERY TOUGH SoCon without 3 or 4 losses.

SoCon Football is better than Big Sky, better than CAA, and very, very close or equal to MVFC-level…but the TripleStackedDeck structure of the FCS Playoffs…actually QuadrupleStacked because of the sparse number of SoCon Teams granted participation…has prevented the SoCon from proving that on the field.

This is not the SoCon of 2014, but FCS people want to continue imagining that it is because it helps them support their own agendas.