THE FINAL STRETCH- 3 TOP TEAMS SCHEDULES-UPDATED 6 TO GO

[stonemd]

Got my ticket for @ Samford
Got my all-session tix for AVL

There a 3 losses that will be distributed between the top 3
Assuming no losses to lower tier teams

If Furman wins out - Furman is #1 seed. Furman holds tiebreak over Samford and UNCG (Furman 2-0 v Samford)

If Samford wins out - they are #1 seed and holds tie break over Furman and UNCG (Samford 2-0 v UNCG)

If Furman loses to Samford and
Samford loses to UNCG - UNCG #1 seed but top 3 are 1-1 vs each other. In this case tie break would depend on ranking of WCU (beat Furman), Wofford (beat Samford) and team that might beat UNCG (UTC, WCU, ETSU)

Of course the top 3 may lose an additional game to the lower tier.

Chances of winning (Ken Pom)

Furman
@Citadel 87%
ETSU 90%
Mercer 90%

UNCG
@UTC 55%
WCU 82%
@ETSU 66%

Samford
@VMI 81%
@UTC 45%

UTC might be the spoiler especially if Stephens comes back before the tournament. Also if UTC wins vs UNCG or Samford they may end up ranked higher than WCU (which is good for Furman).

[FU Hoopla]

[FU Hoopla]

[stonemd]

Root for
ETSU over WCU
Wofford over Mercer
Chatt over VMI

Not sure who we want to win UNCG - Samford

[furpop16]

Root for
ETSU over WCU
Wofford over Mercer
Chatt over VMI

Not sure who we want to win UNCG - Samford

I’m for Samford, tonight. FU can then settle everything on the court in Homewood-Birmingham.

[apaladin]

Don’t think it really matters who wins the SU/UNCG. If FU wins the next 3 they will still be playing for the championship at Samford. Only way that is not the case is if both SU and UNCG lose 2 of their next 3 which has zero chance of happening.

[stonemd]

If Furman loses to Samford scenarios where we still are #1 seed

Samford over UNCG, but loses to UTC and VMI - unlikely.

UNCG over Samford. Samford needs to lose at UTC. Now UNCG needs to lose a game.

If they lose to UTC sets up as above w Western needing to lose @Mercer so UTC finished ranked ahead of WCU

If they lose to ETSU, ETSU needs to beat WCU. Because Western wins tiebreaks vs ETSU, Western also needs to lose @Mercer.

If they lose to Western and win out Furman and UNCG have identical resume and Furman gets #1 seed due to higher NET.


So root for UTC to win, Western to lose. Root for anyone to beat Samford and UNCG. I think we should root for UNCG over Samford

Check my work!

[stonemd]

Tiebreakers used are 1) head-to-head results, 2) comparison of records against individual teams in the conference starting with the top-ranked team and working down and 3) NCAA NET rankings on the first available report after the regular season is complete.

Furman at 82, UNCG at 108

[apaladin]

Like I said it will come down to a must win at SU. All these other scenarios are not happening. We are not in good shape with tiebreakers. With that said I guess it would be better for SU to win tonight and that would at least give us the tiebreaker over uncg for second place(if lose st SU) as uncg would be 0-2 vs SU and FU would be 1-1.

[MNORM]

I'm just going to root for Furman to win all four...this is too complicated for me . I have no doubt we can get the job done.

[apaladin]

With the UNCG loss to Samford tonight it pretty much eliminates them as they lose any tiebreak scenarios with Furman or Samford. Among the 3 teams UNCG only has one win in their 4 games with FU and SU, while both FU and SU both already have 2 wins each among the others. For UNCG to now get the top seed they would have to win their last 3 and FU would have to lose one more and SU would have to lose 2 more. FU could still fnish first, second or third. Funny that of the 3 top teams uncg is the only one that has not lost to a lower place team. SU has one loss and FU has 2 to lower place teams.

[Monday]

SU has one loss and FU has 2 to lower place teams.

We know

[Affirm]

Root for
ETSU over WCU
Wofford over Mercer
Chatt over VMI

Not sure who we want to win UNCG - Samford

I’m for Samford, tonight. FU can then settle everything on the court in Homewood-Birmingham.

FU can and will settle everything on the court in Asheville. FU and SU will not meet again in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

[Roundball]

UNCG at Chattanooga, 12:00, CBS Sports Network
Samford at VMI, 1:00, WYCW

[FU Hoopla]

Sammy news:
Ques Glover did not play today nursing an injury
Logan Dye only played 6 minutes as he injured his knee

Both will probably be ready to go by next Saturday however