Our Playoff Chances

[fupaladin01]

The most literal reading of the tie-breaker rules is that the scores of the games between tied teams matters. That can be the only reason for the phrase “among the tied teams”. It’s understood that we’re talking about tied teams already, so the “among” phrase specifies that the scores are those between the tied teams.
After all, the tie-break rules have already set the precedent that Wins/Losses between the tied teams matters first, then W/L vs the rest of the conference. So the order of importance is:
Wins vs 1st place teams
Wins vs the conference (best to worst)
Points vs 1st place teams
(No need to compare points against the lesser teams so a coin flip / drawing is next)

Think about it: what does it prove if we beat VMI 45-7, Wofford beats them 40-10 and ETSU beats them 42-6? All other scores being equal, would we deserve the auto-bid because we hung 2 more points on the Keydets?
However, if We beat Wofford by 4 scores, Wofford beat ETSU by a touch down, and ETSU beat us by a FG, you begin to see one team look more dominant where it counts.
I have it on good authority that Coach Hendrix is operating with the understanding that we’ve already won the points contest and just need a W. I feel certain he or Mike Buddy has clarified with the powers that be before spending time prepping for Mercer.

Beat Mercer, Pray for Samford. Win the conference, go to playoffs. Personally, I want Colgate.

[The Jackal]

Being a Samford fan right now has to be the worst. You were minutes away from winning at Florida State, your team is one win away from beating all three of the top teams in the league, you have a SR QB, who is the best in school history and statistically one of the best in FCS history, and you're still not going to win a conference title or make the playoffs this year.

Think about this - Samford has arguably the two top offensive players in program history AND the best defensive player in program history playing at the same time. All three guys are likely going to get shots in the NFL.

I don't know what the Furman equivalent of that would be, but it would be like Ingle Martin and Louis Ivory playing on the same team.

[The Jackal]

The most literal reading of the tie-breaker rules is that the scores of the games between tied teams matters. That can be the only reason for the phrase “among the tied teams”. It’s understood that we’re talking about tied teams already, so the “among” phrase specifies that the scores are those between the tied teams.
After all, the tie-break rules have already set the precedent that Wins/Losses between the tied teams matters first, then W/L vs the rest of the conference. So the order of importance is:
Wins vs 1st place teams
Wins vs the conference (best to worst)
Points vs 1st place teams
(No need to compare points against the lesser teams so a coin flip / drawing is next)

Think about it: what does it prove if we beat VMI 45-7, Wofford beats them 40-10 and ETSU beats them 42-6? All other scores being equal, would we deserve the auto-bid because we hung 2 more points on the Keydets?
However, if We beat Wofford by 4 scores, Wofford beat ETSU by a touch down, and ETSU beat us by a FG, you begin to see one team look more dominant where it counts.
I have it on good authority that Coach Hendrix is operating with the understanding that we’ve already won the points contest and just need a W. I feel certain he or Mike Buddy has clarified with the powers that be before spending time prepping for Mercer.

Beat Mercer, Pray for Samford. Win the conference, go to playoffs. Personally, I want Colgate.

I think there are at least two, probably three readings of the applicable tie breaker that make sense. The least logical reading is probably the one that is closest to the language used, which is the total points surrendered all season.

If the tiebreaker was intended to calculate the scores of all SoCon games, it should have said that. That reading isn't implied anywhere else, because the tiebreaker rules are pretty much concerned with how teams play in isolated games (head to head, among tied teams, against the next highest rated team). At no point do any of those rules care about what happens in a larger set of games.

I think the most reasonable reading is to look at only the games between the tied teams. In this case, there is even more parity because Furman/ETSU/Wofford all played 1 team on the road, and 1 at home. The home team won both games (ETSU v Furman, Furman v Wofford), and the road team lost both games (Wofford at Furman, Furman at ETSU).

[fufanatic]

After talking about these scenarios all week, you can almost lock it in that ETSU wins by 3 over Samford this weekend to clinch what has to be one of the most remarkable SoCon runs in recent history. Fortunately, that game is at 1 p.m. and ours is at 3 p.m., so we might have a pretty good indicator of everything by kickoff. Still gotta win on our end though.

[The Jackal]

After talking about these scenarios all week, you can almost lock it in that ETSU wins by 3 over Samford this weekend to clinch what has to be one of the most remarkable SoCon runs in recent history. Fortunately, that game is at 1 p.m. and ours is at 3 p.m., so we might have a pretty good indicator of everything by kickoff. Still gotta win on our end though.

Personal opinion - I think Samford is going to win by a few scores.

ETSU has had a remarkable season, but has been winning games by a whisker and, I think, is not nearly as talented as Samford is. If the Bulldogs are right, I think you may see something in the 35-17 range.

[MNORM]

The most literal reading of the tie-breaker rules is that the scores of the games between tied teams matters. That can be the only reason for the phrase “among the tied teams”. It’s understood that we’re talking about tied teams already, so the “among” phrase specifies that the scores are those between the tied teams.
After all, the tie-break rules have already set the precedent that Wins/Losses between the tied teams matters first, then W/L vs the rest of the conference. So the order of importance is:
Wins vs 1st place teams
Wins vs the conference (best to worst)
Points vs 1st place teams
(No need to compare points against the lesser teams so a coin flip / drawing is next)

Think about it: what does it prove if we beat VMI 45-7, Wofford beats them 40-10 and ETSU beats them 42-6? All other scores being equal, would we deserve the auto-bid because we hung 2 more points on the Keydets?
However, if We beat Wofford by 4 scores, Wofford beat ETSU by a touch down, and ETSU beat us by a FG, you begin to see one team look more dominant where it counts.
I have it on good authority that Coach Hendrix is operating with the understanding that we’ve already won the points contest and just need a W. I feel certain he or Mike Buddy has clarified with the powers that be before spending time prepping for Mercer.

Beat Mercer, Pray for Samford. Win the conference, go to playoffs. Personally, I want Colgate.

I think there are at least two, probably three readings of the applicable tie breaker that make sense. The least logical reading is probably the one that is closest to the language used, which is the total points surrendered all season.

If the tiebreaker was intended to calculate the scores of all SoCon games, it should have said that. That reading isn't implied anywhere else, because the tiebreaker rules are pretty much concerned with how teams play in isolated games (head to head, among tied teams, against the next highest rated team). At no point do any of those rules care about what happens in a larger set of games.

I think the most reasonable reading is to look at only the games between the tied teams. In this case, there is even more parity because Furman/ETSU/Wofford all played 1 team on the road, and 1 at home. The home team won both games (ETSU v Furman, Furman v Wofford), and the road team lost both games (Wofford at Furman, Furman at ETSU).

Straight from the Southern Conference website...
• In the event of a three-way tie at 6-2, Furman, which downed VMI on Nov. 10, would claim the AQ if it allows 16 points or fewer in a win at Mercer. If the Paladins allow more than 16 points, regardless of the margin of victory, Wofford, which wraps its regular season by hosting Presbyterian on Saturday, would win the AQ by virtue of allowing the fewest points in SoCon play among the tied teams.

[The Jackal]

I guess that settles it.

I'm not sure I've watched a football game like this one before. Furman not only has to win, but really also needs to hold Mercer to 16 points.

Guess the starters on defense aren't coming out of this game regardless of the margin.

[gman]

I will settle for a 2-0 victory by the Paladins, along with a Samford victory over ETSU.

[youwouldno]

The strategy aspect of the points thing is interesting in theory, but in practice I don't think it will have much impact on the gameplan. The starters won't come out on offense or defense so long as Mercer is under 17 points, even if Furman leads by a wide margin, because offensive time of possession is a critical aspect to keeping down Mercer's point total.

[Affirm]

I will settle for a 2-0 victory by the Paladins, along with a Samford victory over ETSU.

I will settle for a 2 to 0 win over Mercer in any case. I will settle for beating Mercer and getting to 6-4.
Or anything else that is a win over Mercer, such as 19 to 18 or 38 to 37 or 76 to 75.
Of course I would prefer playoffs and any anything else good, but beating Mercer and getting to 6-4 in our present situation is what is most important and most wanted.

[gman]

I wonder if the coaches will let the players know the final score of the ETSU/Samford game, especially if Samford wins?

[gofurman]

The strategy aspect of the points thing is interesting in theory, but in practice I don't think it will have much impact on the gameplan. The starters won't come out on offense or defense so long as Mercer is under 17 points, even if Furman leads by a wide margin, because offensive time of possession is a critical aspect to keeping down Mercer's point total.

Again we. Can make the playoffs - MAYBE - if we can just win. Which will be hard enough. We can possibly get in regardless Samford

As for strategy I'll be happy just to win - we haven't won in Macon in a couple tries ... however, were we to be fortunate and get a moderate lead I do think you then try to run the ball a little more as it eat clock vs us passing even if we were to score more passing as you are then handing the ball back to mercer. I mean 23-10 is better than 30-17 Run. Run. Run. Kick it out of the endzone and punt high.

[FUBeAR]

we haven't won in Macon in a couple tries

Furman is 1-1 in Macon since Mercer’s Football ‘reboot’

2014...w...25-20
2016...l...24-27

[The Jackal]

we haven't won in Macon in a couple tries

Furman is 1-1 in Macon since Mercer’s Football ‘reboot’

2014...w...25-20
2016...l...24-27

If memory serves, we managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in that loss.

Didn’t we give up a touchdown on like a 4th and long with seconds left in the game? Let’s not do that again.

[MNORM]

we haven't won in Macon in a couple tries

Furman is 1-1 in Macon since Mercer’s Football ‘reboot’

2014...w...25-20
2016...l...24-27

If memory serves, we managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in that loss.

Didn’t we give up a touchdown on like a 4th and long with seconds left in the game? Let’s not do that again.

It was a ~30 yard TD pass from Russ with about 30 seconds left. We got to about the Mercer 35 and Reese threw one into the endzone and it was intercepted...game over.