Playoff projections

[The Jackal]

Hero Sports has Furman vs. Richmond in the first round, with the winner traveling to South Dakota State. If that is the case, which school will win the bid for the home game? https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... inal-bzbz/

The Analyst has Furman hosting Elon, with the winner going to Samford. Give us that one. https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/11/fcs-f ... off-field/

I'm not as sure on the analyst's bracket. They have Davidson going to Southeastern Louisiana, which I know exceeds the 400 mile radius.

I still think GWU/Elon/Davidson/Furman seem likely

I'd wager that Richmond will be tangled up with with the Northeast/Mid Atlantic schools - maybe Fordham or St. Francis

[FUBeAR]

I mean, we may see a third SoCon team.

UTC has the better resume than Mercer.

Mercer played their way past Chatt & Chatt played their way behind Mercer today.

Bear I know you are prejudiced but don’t see how you can say that when UTC beat MU by 21 points.

You should always have your facts squared away if you’re going to make an argument. Chatt did not beat Mercer by 21 points way back in October.

Also…

From a non “prejudiced” New Hampshire fan today…a veritable FCS Playoffs savant…

“Who’s the last team in? Give me Mercer. Did they lose to Chattanooga? Yes. But they have a win over the Big South Champ and had Samford on the ropes in Samford.”

He neglected to mention that was a 31 point road curb-stomping of the Big South Champ …

…AND…

* Mercer beat the Team that just beat Chatt, by a score of 49-6, just a few weeks ago.
* The Samford Team that Mercer was 72” away from defeating at Home, went on the road to Chatt last week and beat the Mocs by double digits, leading by 3 scores most of the game.
* A week ago, Mercer matched TD’s w/Furman, only losing by a few FG’s, while playing w/o their record breaking WR from the 2nd quarter on (targeting). The week before that, Furman out-TD’d Chatt by a 3-2 count.
* Mercer, just a skosh behind potential seeds, Samford and Furman, is ready to make some NOISE in the Playoffs. Chatt, OTOH, as they have done the past 3 seasons, has again fallen into a deep late season well and just can’t get out.

Mercer played their way past Chatt & Chatt played their way behind Mercer.

[The Jackal]

I mean, we may see a third SoCon team.

UTC has the better resume than Mercer.

Mercer played their way past Chatt & Chatt played their way behind Mercer today.

Bear I know you are prejudiced but don’t see how you can say that when UTC beat MU by 21 points.

You should always have your facts squared away if you’re going to make an argument. Chatt did not beat Mercer by 21 points way back in October. Also…

From a non “prejudiced” New Hampshire fan today…a veritable FCS Playoffs savant…

“Who’s the last team in? Give me Mercer. Did they lose to Chattanooga? Yes. But they have a win over the Big South Champ and had Samford on the ropes in Samford.”

He neglected to mention that was a 31 point road curb-stomping of the Big South Champ …

…AND…

* Mercer beat the Team that just beat Chatt, by a score of 49-6, just a few weeks ago.
* The Samford Team that Mercer was 72” away from defeating at Home, went on the road to Chatt last week and beat the Mocs by double digits, leading by 3 scores most of the game.
* A week ago, Mercer matched TD’s w/Furman, only losing by a few FG’s, while playing w/o their record breaking WR from the 2nd quarter on (targeting). The week before that, Furman out-TD’d Chatt by a 3-2 count.
* Mercer, just a skosh behind potential seeds, Samford and Furman, is ready to make some NOISE in the Playoffs. Chatt, OTOH, as they have done the past 3 seasons, has again fallen into a deep late season well and just can’t get out.

Mercer played their way past Chatt & Chatt played their way behind Mercer.

I'm going to push back a little on using the Ty James excuse against Furman.

James had 2 receptions for 15 yards when he was ejected. He was ejected late in the second quarter (about 4 minutes until half time)

Is Mercer better with James in the lineup? Absolutely. Was he having a massive impact on that particular game? No. Furman had pretty well bottled him up.

[The Jackal]

There are arguments for Mercer to get in. There are arguments for UTC to get in.

UTC has the win over Mercer. Mercer has the win over a playoff bound Gardner Webb.

At this point, it is just argument. Both teams had their shot to take away a lot of the debate and they both fell short.

Furman's been there before. You have to handle your business. Both UTC and Mercer had multiple shots to punch their ticket and both fell short. Maybe they get in, but I'd be surprised at this point.

[FUBeAR]

If the selection committee have been actually watching the games, we are going to get the #8 seed,. That is a big if.

The committee does use a computer model (I forget the name).

Listen to the podcast with the Committee Chair. He rattled off the ‘published’ data that the Committee says they use, which includes SRS (Simple Rating System) - probably the computer model you recall. But that model is reviewable at the NCAA’s FCS Ranking site - and hasn’t been updated since 2019. So, at least 2 Selection cycles have passed since they actually used it.

As the Chair kept talking, he said, essentially, every Committee Member can use whatever data they want to use as justification for the Teams they support Seeding and to receive At-Large bids.

[FUBeAR]

I mean, we may see a third SoCon team.

UTC has the better resume than Mercer.

Mercer played their way past Chatt & Chatt played their way behind Mercer today.

Bear I know you are prejudiced but don’t see how you can say that when UTC beat MU by 21 points.

You should always have your facts squared away if you’re going to make an argument. Chatt did not beat Mercer by 21 points way back in October. Also…

From a non “prejudiced” New Hampshire fan today…a veritable FCS Playoffs savant…

“Who’s the last team in? Give me Mercer. Did they lose to Chattanooga? Yes. But they have a win over the Big South Champ and had Samford on the ropes in Samford.”

He neglected to mention that was a 31 point road curb-stomping of the Big South Champ …

…AND…

* Mercer beat the Team that just beat Chatt, by a score of 49-6, just a few weeks ago.
* The Samford Team that Mercer was 72” away from defeating at Home, went on the road to Chatt last week and beat the Mocs by double digits, leading by 3 scores most of the game.
* A week ago, Mercer matched TD’s w/Furman, only losing by a few FG’s, while playing w/o their record breaking WR from the 2nd quarter on (targeting). The week before that, Furman out-TD’d Chatt by a 3-2 count.
* Mercer, just a skosh behind potential seeds, Samford and Furman, is ready to make some NOISE in the Playoffs. Chatt, OTOH, as they have done the past 3 seasons, has again fallen into a deep late season well and just can’t get out.

Mercer played their way past Chatt & Chatt played their way behind Mercer.

I'm going to push back a little on using the Ty James excuse against Furman.

James had 2 receptions for 15 yards when he was ejected. He was ejected late in the second quarter (about 4 minutes until half time)

Is Mercer better with James in the lineup? Absolutely. Was he having a massive impact on that particular game? No. Furman had pretty well bottled him up.

Pretty much irrelevant to the argument FUBeAR is making, but FUBeAR hopes you feel better.