A comparison of current CAA members (14) and SoCon members in the last 7 years of post-season:
Teams making the playoffs- 12 of 14 members of CAA (no Hampton, Rhode Island)
7 of 9 SoCon (no WCU, Mercer)
Record in post-season- CAA 17-22 (.772) SoCon 9-15 (.600)
Record vs Big Sky and MVFC in post-season: CAA 3-9 (.333) SoCon 1-4 (.250)
Quarterfinal appearances: CAA - 5 SoCon - 3
Semi-final appearances: CAA - 3 SoCon - 0
CAA vs SoCon in post-season 0-2
Each conference (CAA and SoCon) has been eliminated by another current member of the same conference twice.
My takeaways:
The Chasm between CAA and SoCon is no longer as large as many have assumed in recent years. Yes, we are behind when it comes to post-season performance, but much of that can be explained by geography (9 of CAA's 17 wins came against Patriot League or NEC competition compared to 1 of SoCon W's) and SoCon is paired with perennial powers Kennesaw St and Jacksonville St (now FBS) in early rounds (5 of our 9 losses)
CAA gets all the credit for championships and post-season wins with JMU as much as SoCon claims ASU and GSU. But... if pollsters and committee members will look at the two leagues objectively for their current make-up, I see no reason to assume the CAA will be a 4-5 bid league and the SoCon 1-2.
We need 3 teams (hopefully FU is one) to dominate the conference this season, make the post-season, and win 2-3 games apiece at least to get the narrative to shift. Having a balanced league is not doing us any favors when it means we beat each other up and get left home on selection Sunday.