SoCon Tournament Projections

[apaladin]

Just for fun. Took the current standings and looked at the games each team has left. Here is what I think the first 2 days might look like:
Friday:
6:00 #7 Wofford vs. #10 WCU
8:30 #8 ETSU vs. #9 Citadel
Saturday:
12:00 #1 UTC vs. winner etsu/citadel
2:30 #4 Samford vs. #5 Mercer
6:00 #2 Furman vs. winner wofford/wcu
8:30 #3 VMI vs. #6 UNCG
Subject to change.

[purplehorse]

If we play Wofford I like our chances. Sure anybody can beat anybody on a given night but we just have more talent than they do this year.

Of course no game will be a gimme.

[Paul C]

I can’t remember a year where the SoCon was more balanced. Usually there are 2-3 teams at the bottom that are gimme’s and it’s a stretch to call even WCU that this year. They’ve beaten utc, and then Mercer yesterday even without their top scorer.

[MidlandsPaladin]

Granted these seeds hold, and they most certainly won’t, I would hate to see Woffy a third time. But we do match up better against them than ETSU or UNCG.

[purplehorse]

I am hoping we win our next two games and UTC loses to ETSU Wed night and we will be watching and pulling against UTC (vs Sammy) on Saturday. It is not over until it is over.

[apaladin]

Furman has at Samford and at Citadel left. VMI has WC at home and at WCU. Samford has FU at home and at UTC left. Any VMI or Samford loss and FU finishes no worse than 3rd. Any FU win and FU is locked in at second. If SU knocks of FU and wins at UTC they deserve the second seed. Most likely finish is 2. FU 3. VMI 4. Samford. Prolly won’t happen.

[stonemd]

Of all the ken Pom stats we rank lowest in “luck”. 311 out of 358. To me this means it all will balance out at the end of the season. I’m looking forward to seeing the 3s fall and the tight games go our way.

[stonemd]

We are also low in Free throw rate. When I look at the overall FT rate for the Southern conference it ranks 31 out of 32 conferences. So our impression that so on refs are not calling fouls is backed up with data.

[tya1]

Teams that shoot a lot of three point shots don't usually get to the FT line that often. In the latest NCAA stats Western Carolina, VMI, Furman, and the Citadel rank #2,3 4 and 5 in three point shots attempted. Wofford and Samford are #15 and 16.

[apaladin]

The Saturday noon game projected above is locked in. Everything else will be decided Saturday.

[GOAT]

I still think we can win this tournament.

[apaladin]

I still think we can win this tournament.

Of course they can but they won’t. Always a chance. Not capable of winning 3 games in 3 days. Somebody has to do it. Like I said before there are only 2 teams that can’t win it, WCU because they are not good and FU because they are FU(curse?)

[tim]

I'm not seeing anything that indicates this Furman team is ready to win any tournament. I thought we had found another gear a few weeks ago but that isn't the case.

[apaladin]

I'm not seeing anything that indicates this Furman team is ready to win any tournament. I thought we had found another gear a few weeks ago but that isn't the case.

Yep went from overdrive(Citadel) to neutral in 2 days(uncg).

[stonemd]

Most likely
Furman 2 seed
Play winner of Mercer/Western

Sanford 3 seed
Plays VMI/Wofford/UNCG

If/when we move on to semis w face
Samford/VMI/Wofford/UNCG