The Citadel - Oct. 16

[Davemeister]

There's a lot of football left to be played. If we win out in October, then and only then will I start to think about the possibility of a post-season.

Right now, it's all about The Citadel.

[The Jackal]

Favored by Jackal perhaps, but the computer ratings (the main ingredient in FCS over/unders) currently have the Paladins as slight underdogs in 3 remaining games - ETSU (2 points), @ UTC (5 points), and @ Samford (3 points).

A strong showing against Citadel would change that, possibly making the Paladins favorites in all remaining games. It also depends on what happens in the other SoCon games, of course.

Overall there's not a lot of separation in the SoCon this year. There are a huge number of scenarios that could realistically play out. No SoCon team is heavily favored throughout its remaining schedule.

Yep. According to me.

As you know, I think the computer rankings have their place, but I'd just as soon watch the teams play and make determinations based upon players playing on an actual field with an actual football.

We may lose to UTC, but they may be the most over-hyped team in the country.

[youwouldno]

I don't disagree, but normally "favored" refers to general/objective opinion, vs. one fan's opinion.

I assume you mean ETSU . . . not sure if they are really all that hyped, it's just hard not to rank a team decently that's 6-0 with an FBS win. I wouldn't be at all surprised if ETSU lost 3 of their last 5 games.

[Furmanoid]

Yep. We could end up winning this thing this year, but it is a tough ask. We need to win out (which we can) and we need help with Mercer. It’s more likely we lose one or two more. But now we may be on track to be REALLY good for the next few years. We need Wilson to get better, but not too much better.

We won't need help from Mercer to reach the playoffs. Keep winning and we'll be in.

I may stand corrected, but I don't think Mercer goes undefeated.

I expect Furman will likely be favored in every game from here on out with the exception of ETSU. ETSU is essentially the same team we beat in Johnson City last spring. We get them in Greenville.

I didn’t mean help FROM Mercer, I meant help WITH Mercer. Don’t we need for two teams to beat them since they have the tiebreaker over us? Which 2 do you think will do it?

[FUBeAR]

Yep. We could end up winning this thing this year, but it is a tough ask. We need to win out (which we can) and we need help with Mercer. It’s more likely we lose one or two more. But now we may be on track to be REALLY good for the next few years. We need Wilson to get better, but not too much better.

We won't need help from Mercer to reach the playoffs. Keep winning and we'll be in.

I may stand corrected, but I don't think Mercer goes undefeated.

I expect Furman will likely be favored in every game from here on out with the exception of ETSU. ETSU is essentially the same team we beat in Johnson City last spring. We get them in Greenville.

I didn’t mean help FROM Mercer, I meant help WITH Mercer. Don’t we need for two teams to beat them since they have the tiebreaker over us? Which 2 do you think will do it?

With the POSSIBLE exceptions of Wofford (more likely - Mercer) & WCU (less likely - ETSU), Mercer & ETSU have the ‘ability’ to lose to every other Team remaining on their schedule, including each other in the last week of the regular season.

The race for the SoCon Championship remains WIDE-A open!

Pro Tip: Don’t lose!

[The Jackal]

Yep. We could end up winning this thing this year, but it is a tough ask. We need to win out (which we can) and we need help with Mercer. It’s more likely we lose one or two more. But now we may be on track to be REALLY good for the next few years. We need Wilson to get better, but not too much better.

We won't need help from Mercer to reach the playoffs. Keep winning and we'll be in.

I may stand corrected, but I don't think Mercer goes undefeated.

I expect Furman will likely be favored in every game from here on out with the exception of ETSU. ETSU is essentially the same team we beat in Johnson City last spring. We get them in Greenville.

I didn’t mean help FROM Mercer, I meant help WITH Mercer. Don’t we need for two teams to beat them since they have the tiebreaker over us? Which 2 do you think will do it?

Yes and no.

If it were just Furman and Mercer tied, then yes, they would own the tiebreaker.

There are scenarios where Furman could hold the tie breaker over Mercer despite having the same conference record. One scenario that happens not infrequently is a three way tie for first. For instance, Furman beats ETSU and ETSU beats Mercer. There, three teams are tied with identical conference records and are 1-1 against the other teams involved in the tie.

That's down the line, though. Right now, Furman needs to win football games. Nothing we can do about Mercer at this point.

[FUBeAR]

Yep. We could end up winning this thing this year, but it is a tough ask. We need to win out (which we can) and we need help with Mercer. It’s more likely we lose one or two more. But now we may be on track to be REALLY good for the next few years. We need Wilson to get better, but not too much better.

We won't need help from Mercer to reach the playoffs. Keep winning and we'll be in.

I may stand corrected, but I don't think Mercer goes undefeated.

I expect Furman will likely be favored in every game from here on out with the exception of ETSU. ETSU is essentially the same team we beat in Johnson City last spring. We get them in Greenville.

I didn’t mean help FROM Mercer, I meant help WITH Mercer. Don’t we need for two teams to beat them since they have the tiebreaker over us? Which 2 do you think will do it?

Yes and no.

If it were just Furman and Mercer tied, then yes, they would own the tiebreaker.

There are scenarios where Furman could hold the tie breaker over Mercer despite having the same conference record. One scenario that happens not infrequently is a three way tie for first. For instance, Furman beats ETSU and ETSU beats Mercer. There, three teams are tied with identical conference records and are 1-1 against the other teams involved in the tie.

That's down the line, though. Right now, Furman needs to win football games. Nothing we can do about Mercer at this point.

And…in that case, it goes to points allowed (not sure if that’s points allowed vs. tied teams or vs. all SoCon Teams), and if that doesn’t decide it, I think it goes to flipping coins….or pistols @ 50 paces….FUBeAR’s preferred method.

[The Jackal]

Yep. We could end up winning this thing this year, but it is a tough ask. We need to win out (which we can) and we need help with Mercer. It’s more likely we lose one or two more. But now we may be on track to be REALLY good for the next few years. We need Wilson to get better, but not too much better.

We won't need help from Mercer to reach the playoffs. Keep winning and we'll be in.

I may stand corrected, but I don't think Mercer goes undefeated.

I expect Furman will likely be favored in every game from here on out with the exception of ETSU. ETSU is essentially the same team we beat in Johnson City last spring. We get them in Greenville.

I didn’t mean help FROM Mercer, I meant help WITH Mercer. Don’t we need for two teams to beat them since they have the tiebreaker over us? Which 2 do you think will do it?

Yes and no.

If it were just Furman and Mercer tied, then yes, they would own the tiebreaker.

There are scenarios where Furman could hold the tie breaker over Mercer despite having the same conference record. One scenario that happens not infrequently is a three way tie for first. For instance, Furman beats ETSU and ETSU beats Mercer. There, three teams are tied with identical conference records and are 1-1 against the other teams involved in the tie.

That's down the line, though. Right now, Furman needs to win football games. Nothing we can do about Mercer at this point.

And…in that case, it goes to points allowed (not sure if that’s points allowed vs. tied teams or vs. all SoCon Teams), and if that doesn’t decide it, I think it goes to flipping coins….or pistols @ 50 paces….FUBeAR’s preferred method.

Technically, next tie breaker is record against highest rated team not involved in tie. With 1 conference loss, that would be irrelevant because all three would be undefeated against the rest of the conference. It really only comes into play when there's a tie amongst 2 loss teams.

This benefitted Furman a few years ago (2013?). Furman had lost to Elon, which finished at or near the bottom of the conference. Furman won the tiebreaker because even though it had lost to the league's worst team, it had beaten the next highest ranked teams (2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.)

THEN it goes to points allowed.

That tiebreaker actually went against Furman a few years ago (I forget when). Furman had to beat Mercer on the road AND hold them to like 17 points to win the auto bid. They beat Mercer, but Mercer scored more than whatever the threshold number was.

[Furmanoid]

Looks like the most likely path is Mercer drops their last 2 to Nooga and ETSU.

[FUBeAR]

Yep. We could end up winning this thing this year, but it is a tough ask. We need to win out (which we can) and we need help with Mercer. It’s more likely we lose one or two more. But now we may be on track to be REALLY good for the next few years. We need Wilson to get better, but not too much better.

We won't need help from Mercer to reach the playoffs. Keep winning and we'll be in.

I may stand corrected, but I don't think Mercer goes undefeated.

I expect Furman will likely be favored in every game from here on out with the exception of ETSU. ETSU is essentially the same team we beat in Johnson City last spring. We get them in Greenville.

I didn’t mean help FROM Mercer, I meant help WITH Mercer. Don’t we need for two teams to beat them since they have the tiebreaker over us? Which 2 do you think will do it?

Yes and no.

If it were just Furman and Mercer tied, then yes, they would own the tiebreaker.

There are scenarios where Furman could hold the tie breaker over Mercer despite having the same conference record. One scenario that happens not infrequently is a three way tie for first. For instance, Furman beats ETSU and ETSU beats Mercer. There, three teams are tied with identical conference records and are 1-1 against the other teams involved in the tie.

That's down the line, though. Right now, Furman needs to win football games. Nothing we can do about Mercer at this point.

And…in that case, it goes to points allowed (not sure if that’s points allowed vs. tied teams or vs. all SoCon Teams), and if that doesn’t decide it, I think it goes to flipping coins….or pistols @ 50 paces….FUBeAR’s preferred method.

Technically, next tie breaker is record against highest rated team not involved in tie. With 1 conference loss, that would be irrelevant because all three would be undefeated against the rest of the conference. It really only comes into play when there's a tie amongst 2 loss teams.

This benefitted Furman a few years ago (2013?). Furman had lost to Elon, which finished at or near the bottom of the conference. Furman won the tiebreaker because even though it had lost to the league's worst team, it had beaten the next highest ranked teams (2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.)

THEN it goes to points allowed.

That tiebreaker actually went against Furman a few years ago (I forget when). Furman had to beat Mercer on the road AND hold them to like 17 points to win the auto bid. They beat Mercer, but Mercer scored more than whatever the threshold number was.

Gonna bow out of this morass of a subject after this…but, you’re right…record against next highest finishing team is next tie-breaker.

FWIW…Mr. Massey CURRENTLY projects there will be a tie-breaker to decide the SoCon Auto-bid. His prediculation machine says ETSU & Mercer will tie for the SoCon Championship @ 7-1 with ETSU losing to Chatt this week & Mercer losing to ETSU in the final week. ETSU gets the Auto-Bid via a Head-to-Head win over Mercer…and in that scenario, FUBeAR bets we would see 2 things that would be complete BS….

1) a 10-1/7-1 ETSU Team with an FBS P5 SEC win on their resume would not get a Top 8 seed in the Playoffs

2) Mercer, with an 8-2/7-1 record, whose only losses were to FBS SEC Alabama & to a 10-1 FCS Conf Champion with an FBS P5 SEC win to their credit, even if Mercer lost to ETSU, @ ETSU, in OT, on a missed XP, would not receive an At-Large bid to the FCS Playoffs.

Massey CURRENTLY Projected Final SoCon Standings
Team Conf Overall
1a. ETSU 7-1 10-1
1b. Mercer 7-1 8-2
3a. Samf 5-3 7-4
3B. Chatt 5-3 6-5
5. Furman 4-4 6-5
6a. CIT 3-5 4-7
6b. VMI 3-5 5-6
8. Woff 1-7 2-9
9. WCU 0-8 0-11

[Sad Din]

Few things hope the coaches are pounding:

1. Dins had 2 weeks to prepare
2. Woffy had no game film on #16
3. Last two years - Dins look great one week and not so good next

What team will show up this Sat?

[The Jackal]

Few things hope the coaches are pounding:

1. Dins had 2 weeks to prepare
2. Woffy had no game film on #16
3. Last two years - Dins look great one week and not so good next

What team will show up this Sat?

I mean, I think the team needs to be focused, but I'm not sure those are things I'd be pounding.

Wofford had film on Wilson. He just played the week before against Mercer.

Wofford's problem wasn't a film room problem. Their problem was getting their butts blown off the ball and getting run over 10 yards downfield. No amount of scheme and defensive wizardry is going to make up for that.

[AstroDin]

I have no idea how Jace will perform the rest of this season.
But, based on Saturday I'm excited as a fan and for him.
I felt his performance got better as the game went on, again a good sign.
Jace also didn't shoulder the load in the performance against Wofford.
He was calm (cool) and managed the game well, and was consistently on target with almost all of his throws.

The Citadel HC mention in Post and Courier's article he wondered how much of the Furman offense does Jace know?
Knowing his background, his coaching prior to getting to Furman, and Clay's comments that Jace gets what we want to do in this offense. This should be a fun ride!

[AstroDin]

an interesting comparison…

[Furmanoid]

Wilson has swagger. He gave that offense hope. Citadel is toast.