Western Carolina

[The Jackal]

Thankfully back home. The first of three consecutive in Greenville. This is where we need to get things going and turn the ship around.

The Catamounts are 3-0, but don't necessarily let the record fool you. They've played Newberry, Gardner Webb, and VMI. Newberry is a D2 squad WCU needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat. GWU is winless in D1 play, with their only win over Limestone. VMI is winless as well.

It is same song different verse for WCU this season. Their offense can be, at times, impressive. They are led by their one-man-band at QB, Tyrie Adams, who accounts for over 300 yards a game in total yardage. Their offense goes as he goes.

Defensively they are a mess. In spite of playing arguably the league's easiest schedule, they are one of the statistically worst defenses in the SoCon. They gave up 451 yards of offense to D2 Newberry. VMI(!) put up 547 yards on them last week and 491(!) passing.

I think this game will come down to our play on offense. I believe our defense is going to limit Adams and slow down the potent WCU attack. Our offense, though, has to move the chains, put some points up, and let our defense get after them.

[apaladin]

With those defensive stats maybe we can crack the 300 yd mark on offense for the first time this year.

[FUBeAR]

I’m seeing 6-8 Sacks and 3-5 INT’s if Mr. Adams answers the bell for all 4 quarters.

[wcugrad95]

Western fan back from last year. Hopefully we will see better weather and a better showing from WCU. Odd that the undefeated team is actually the underdog against the winless team, but that is what all the odds and predictions point to and is driven by the teams we have each faced.

I predict (or at least hope) you will see a lot more offense from Western. Our defense is frustrating to watch. When we get pressure and penetration, we almost look serviceable (I know - rocket science). We have 16 sacks through 3 games, and frequently have the opposition in 3rd and long. But then the rush is feast or famine and if it is famine - an easy completion or hole a bus could drive through, horrendous tackling, and we give up 16-20 yards on a 3rd and 12 even when the play was right in front of us. It is worse when we have total breakdowns in coverage and guys are running around wide-open for big gains or TDs. Again - that on numerous times has been on a 3rd down.

As for FUBeAR's prediction of 6-8 sacks, that would be extremely good against a QB with Adams' running ability. But honestly, I hope we throw it less and run it more. We were really a running team even last year, and having some more sustained drives to protect... I mean rest our D would be a good strategy against the rest of the teams we face.

FU is a team nobody can figure out yet. I will not be surprised in any number of directions this game goes (blowout, shootout, or other).

[tenNesseeCat]

I see it pretty even, and i think it should be a much better game than last year.

[apaladin]

It should be exciting on both sides. FU defense needs to hold WCU under 30. I just don't see the FU offense putting up a bunch of points on anyone.

[FUBeAR]

As for FUBeAR's prediction of 6-8 sacks

[gofurman]

With those defensive stats maybe we can crack the 300 yd mark on offense for the first time this year.

That really is killing me. 288 yards is our best offensive output ? That's hard to fathom. ETSU was SUPPOSED to be the solution to that. I would go so far as to say if we had gained 325 we win. As PaulC said our last FIVE drives netted something like 7 yards. Five drives. 7 yards. If we get two or three first downs on offense then and just stem the shift in momentum (vs a three and out) I think we win.

We have to start getting 350 yards of O. That's not asking a lot

[wcugrad95]

It was actually a total of 5 yards on 5 possessions, but who is counting

Per ESPN, the last 5 possessions while you still had the lead:
3-and-out for 3 yards
3-and-out for 5 yards
6 plays for 9 yards
3-and-out for -10 yards
2 plays for -2 yards and a safety
17 total plays, 1 first down, net of 5 yards

Then you had 5 plays for 6 yards after the safety. So 11 yards on the last 6 possessions.

Western's D might help cure your output, as even when we play OK (i.e. not atrocious) we still give up lots of yards. I don't think anybody believes Western won't have to outscore their opponents based on our first 3 games. Regarding your "score" thread, if both teams get up into the 30s I think that favors WCU.

[gofurman]

It should be exciting on both sides. FU defense needs to hold WCU under 30. I just don't see the FU offense putting up a bunch of points on anyone.

I hate exciting. I would love a nice boring win.. When you have lots of exciting games- you lose. I always question fans that say they want exciting reg season games. They clearly don't want to win titles. If VMI and the sisters of the poor are exciting games the playoffs are not in your future. I want to be like Alabama and blow the crap out of everyone. They seem to win lots of titles down there in Bama. Much like our Citadel and WCU games last year where we just ran and ran and ran... nice boring wins - which led to a playoff bid

[gofurman]

I’m seeing 6-8 Sacks and 3-5 INT’s if Mr. Adams answers the bell for all 4 quarters.

FUBeAR rocks ...but I don't see this happening since Adams is a running athletic QB (tough to sack) and also we have 1 INT on the year. To get 3 in this game would be quite a turnaround.

[FUBeAR]

I’m seeing 6-8 Sacks and 3-5 INT’s if Mr. Adams answers the bell for all 4 quarters.

FUBeAR rocks ...but I don't see this happening since Adams is a running athletic QB (tough to sack) and also we have 1 INT on the year. To get 3 in this game would be quite a turnaround.

WCU - Passing
Player Cmp Att. Yds. TD Int. Long Sack
Tyrie Adams 10 19 90 0 1 24 7

Precedent exists. If the Sorry-a$$ bellhops can do it, our Paladins can do it better...right?

With pressure comes errors. Errors = Picks.

Trapp gets 2. Anoor 1. Okeh gets 1. A DLman gets 1 on a batted pass. = 5.

Can’t you see it? Remove the scales GF!

[wcugrad95]

Since you like to go pick-and-choose Adams' likely worst performance from his Freshman season (he was a pedestrian 14-21 for 133 yards but did throw 3 TDs and had 50 rushing yards against Citadel last year), I was going to go pick out a really bad game from a Furman QB from earlier in their career. The problem was I only have the last 3 games to look at

[FUBeAR]

Since you like to go pick-and-choose Adams' likely worst performance from his Freshman season

Well, he checked out of that game early too - very early in the 4th quarter. So, if we extrapolate the Sacked/Minutes Played number, he would have been SACKED about 9 times...IF he finished the game. So, I think 6-8 is a conservative estimate allowing for his growth in experience over the past couple of years. Also, in looking at the Starters & Participation Report from that game, I see 5 current WCU OL regulars Started (2) and/or Played (3) in that game.

Maybe I need to INCREASE my projection!

[wcugrad95]

We also gave up 5 sacks at Hawaii last year, so you could factor that in as well since it is a little more recent (not by much). But you could also try to work in the total sacks we gave up last season (think it was 21 in 12 games) or the total we have given up this season (3). And I could combine the greatest stats from your QBs and they would all add up to less than the typical output from Adams.

It is all fun-and-games though - likely Adams will have an OK game and I honestly do think Furman has a pretty good defense. I think this game is going to be a whole lot more about which team has any consistency (or turns in a couple of big plays) when the Paladins have the football.