Reasons for Optimism in Fall 2021?

[GOAT]

The problem is that if games are going to be cancelled due to positive tests, there is no way to prevent it. It isn’t anyone’s fault. It is pretty clear now that the vaccine does not prevent delta infections very well. It just prevents illness. The chances of a 20 yr old athlete becoming seriously ill will be even more minute that last year, but I guess nobody cares. Remember last year at this time conferences were freaking out about Covid causing myocarditis. Now we have a vaccine that causes myocarditis, but you aren’t supposed to care because this year myocarditis is a no never mind. Their just isn’t much rational risk assessment going on.

There is record of what you said and you said. "It is pretty clear now that the vaccine does not prevent delta infections very well." That statement is just not true. The delta variant is growing rapidly among the unvaccinated. If you are vaccinated you are much less likely to get Delta or covid. The vaccine helps in preventing you from getting covid and delta. If you get it, you are less likely to end up in the hospital and you are less likely to die, if you have had the vaccine.

[Furmanoid]

" The vaccine doesn’t do that very well against delta."

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that less than 1% of fully vaccinated Americans experience a breakthrough infection. About 99.999% of fully vaccinated Americans have not had a deadly COVID-19 breakthrough case. We are indeed in a post scientific world.

Apparently we are in a post literate world or post integrity world. I said the vaccine is not preventing POSITIVE TESTS very well. Obviously it prevents serious illness. But vaccinated people are getting infected. Otherwise there would be absolutely no justification for mask wearing among the vaccinated (instead of just very weak justification). They now say that not only can you get delta, you can spread it even after vaccination.

So if you are testing players because you are so worried about spreading delta, why only test the unvaccinated when the vaccinated can spread it? It just a carrot and stick. Fine. If it leads to universal vaccination among players it will reduce the athletes risk of death from a few hundredths of a percent down to maybe a few thousandths of a percent.

But at HS level there is no clear protocol. We still just hear about a positive test and everybody around them either gets tested or gets quarantined just like before. They can actually get back to practice faster by just quarantining (sort of). Testing just clouds the issue because it can take weeks to get a negative test. Covid is already screwing up HS teams again. It has done massive damage to education already, and it looks like we may do it all over again.

I think one difference you may see this year is that programs will do whatever they want to do, but if there's a COVID issue on the team and they can't play, it will be a forfeit. In 2020 there was an attempt to reschedule or call it a "game not played."

Will incentivize programs to govern themselves and ensure that they aren't saddled with losses due to gaps in their protocols.

Yes I just learned of SCHSL’s forfeit policy today. I guess I get it but the outbreaks aren’t usually anything a school or a coach can control, so I don’t completely understand why they should be punished. We have zero control over what a 16 year old does at home. And depending on who you listen to, there isn’t much they can do to avoid delta except get vaccinated and even that is far from a slam dunk.

[Furmanoid]

The problem is that if games are going to be cancelled due to positive tests, there is no way to prevent it. It isn’t anyone’s fault. It is pretty clear now that the vaccine does not prevent delta infections very well. It just prevents illness. The chances of a 20 yr old athlete becoming seriously ill will be even more minute that last year, but I guess nobody cares. Remember last year at this time conferences were freaking out about Covid causing myocarditis. Now we have a vaccine that causes myocarditis, but you aren’t supposed to care because this year myocarditis is a no never mind. Their just isn’t much rational risk assessment going on.

There is record of what you said and you said. "It is pretty clear now that the vaccine does not prevent delta infections very well." That statement is just not true. The delta variant is growing rapidly among the unvaccinated. If you are vaccinated you are much less likely to get Delta or covid. The vaccine helps in preventing you from getting covid and delta. If you get it, you are less likely to end up in the hospital and you are less likely to die, if you have had the vaccine.

Depending on brand of jab, prevention of infection is as low as 64%. But let’s say it’s 75%. Is that “very good” or just “good”. I’d say it’s good, but I think of very good as up in the 80’s. That’s just me.

And it certainly appears that CDC suspects the lower end of protection estimates or they wouldn’t want vaccinated people to wear masks.

The point is that even if you vaccinate every single kid, you are still going to have cases. They won’t be serious, but they will be cases. So do you keep cancelling contests, doing virtual school, etc. forever? I suspect we will go back to normal when we reach some target number of vaccinations, but the science says that delta will still be around. And even one case is too many, right?

[FUBeAR]

If you get it, you are less likely to end up in the hospital and you are less likely to die, if you have had the vaccine.

I keep seeing & hearing this ‘fact’ repeated over & over.

I was skeptical about there being enough data to support this claim, but then FUBeAR Jr. sent this study of Covid cases in Virginia to me to ‘support’ this claim. Fairly large sample size…



Now, FUBeAR was no math major, but he did a little ciphering on this data and found the exact opposite of this claim to be borne out at rates of 2.6x MORE likely to be hospitalized & 2.2x MORE likely to die IF you get Covid AND you have been vaccinated.

Here’s my cipherin’ (always learned to show my work…made it thru FU via “partial credit”)

Hospitalizations
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 7230/203217 = .03557773
Vaccinated AND Covid: 145/1566 = .09259259
.09259259/.03557773 = 2.60254357 more likely to be hospitalized if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

Deaths
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 2471/203217 = .01215942
Vaccinated AND Covid: 42/1566 = .02681992
.02681992/.01215942 = 2.20569101 more likely to die if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

What am I missing?

[Furmanoid]

Cases are way up but deaths aren’t. So the vaccine probably keeps you from dying. And this one of few things about which experts don’t seem to disagree.

I guess another possibility is that the original recipe, very lethal Covid 19 has been largely replaced somewhat naturally by a much less lethal delta variant. That’s the sort of thing nobody will suggest until the current experts retire. But it makes sense in terms of selection (I’m a paleontologist, I know something about it) that a more contagious, less lethal variant would be favored by natural selection and arise as immunity hindered replication of older strains.

Either way deaths are down and the inventory of available hosts is shrinking rapidly.

[JohnKX512]

Cases are way up but deaths aren’t. So the vaccine probably keeps you from dying. And this one of few things about which experts don’t seem to disagree.

I guess another possibility is that the original recipe, very lethal Covid 19 has been largely replaced somewhat naturally by a much less lethal delta variant. That’s the sort of thing nobody will suggest until the current experts retire. But it makes sense in terms of selection (I’m a paleontologist, I know something about it) that a more contagious, less lethal variant would be favored by natural selection and arise as immunity hindered replication of older strains.

Either way deaths are down and the inventory of available hosts is shrinking rapidly.

It is best to listen to scientific reports and peer reviewed studies.

[JohnKX512]

If you get it, you are less likely to end up in the hospital and you are less likely to die, if you have had the vaccine.

I keep seeing & hearing this ‘fact’ repeated over & over.

I was skeptical about there being enough data to support this claim, but then FUBeAR Jr. sent this study of Covid cases in Virginia to me to ‘support’ this claim. Fairly large sample size…



Now, FUBeAR was no math major, but he did a little ciphering on this data and found the exact opposite of this claim to be borne out at rates of 2.6x MORE likely to be hospitalized & 2.2x MORE likely to die IF you get Covid AND you have been vaccinated.

Here’s my cipherin’ (always learned to show my work…made it thru FU via “partial credit”)

Hospitalizations
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 7230/203217 = .03557773
Vaccinated AND Covid: 145/1566 = .09259259
.09259259/.03557773 = 2.60254357 more likely to be hospitalized if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

Deaths
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 2471/203217 = .01215942
Vaccinated AND Covid: 42/1566 = .02681992
.02681992/.01215942 = 2.20569101 more likely to die if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

What am I missing?

You are missing a scientific and peer review study with statistical analysis.

[FUBeAR]

If you get it, you are less likely to end up in the hospital and you are less likely to die, if you have had the vaccine.

I keep seeing & hearing this ‘fact’ repeated over & over.

I was skeptical about there being enough data to support this claim, but then FUBeAR Jr. sent this study of Covid cases in Virginia to me to ‘support’ this claim. Fairly large sample size…



Now, FUBeAR was no math major, but he did a little ciphering on this data and found the exact opposite of this claim to be borne out at rates of 2.6x MORE likely to be hospitalized & 2.2x MORE likely to die IF you get Covid AND you have been vaccinated.

Here’s my cipherin’ (always learned to show my work…made it thru FU via “partial credit”)

Hospitalizations
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 7230/203217 = .03557773
Vaccinated AND Covid: 145/1566 = .09259259
.09259259/.03557773 = 2.60254357 more likely to be hospitalized if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

Deaths
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 2471/203217 = .01215942
Vaccinated AND Covid: 42/1566 = .02681992
.02681992/.01215942 = 2.20569101 more likely to die if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

What am I missing?

You are missing a scientific and peer review study with statistical analysis.

Cool - you got one of those confirming the validity of the oft repeated claim that vaccinated humans with Covid have lower hospitalizations & deaths rates than unvaccinated humans with Covid? I would also add that such a study must include a significant sample size & a reasonable time horizon.

FUBeAR Jr. has failed to produce 1 of those despite a week of trying to do so. The Virginia data shown is the only data he sent of probably 50 ‘attempts’ that had anything more than a paltry sample size and/or didn’t include multiple qualifying statements (usually in the very small print /footnotes) explaining why the study was, essentially, a very poor attempt to support the “vaccine = less severity” headline / conclusion / claim.

I have heard or read this claim made by medical, media, and political ‘experts’ at least 100 times in the past 2 weeks with declarative & definitive certainty. Surely, someone can show FUBeAR the “scientific and peer review study with statistical analysis” data to support it.

[apaladin]

150,000,000 vaccinated and 125,000 breakthrough cases or .00083%. I like those odds. Not even close to 1%.

[Affirm]

So, do we HAVE, or do we NOT HAVE, "Reasons for Optimism in Fall 2021", other than that there is some expectation our QB play will be better?

[Affirm]

If you get it, you are less likely to end up in the hospital and you are less likely to die, if you have had the vaccine.

I keep seeing & hearing this ‘fact’ repeated over & over.

I was skeptical about there being enough data to support this claim, but then FUBeAR Jr. sent this study of Covid cases in Virginia to me to ‘support’ this claim. Fairly large sample size…



Now, FUBeAR was no math major, but he did a little ciphering on this data and found the exact opposite of this claim to be borne out at rates of 2.6x MORE likely to be hospitalized & 2.2x MORE likely to die IF you get Covid AND you have been vaccinated.

Here’s my cipherin’ (always learned to show my work…made it thru FU via “partial credit”)

Hospitalizations
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 7230/203217 = .03557773
Vaccinated AND Covid: 145/1566 = .09259259
.09259259/.03557773 = 2.60254357 more likely to be hospitalized if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

Deaths
Unvaccinated AND Covid: 2471/203217 = .01215942
Vaccinated AND Covid: 42/1566 = .02681992
.02681992/.01215942 = 2.20569101 more likely to die if vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated AND catch Covid.

What am I missing?

You are missing a scientific and peer review study with statistical analysis.

Cool - you got one of those confirming the validity of the oft repeated claim that vaccinated humans with Covid have lower hospitalizations & deaths rates than unvaccinated humans with Covid? I would also add that such a study must include a significant sample size & a reasonable time horizon.

FUBeAR Jr. has failed to produce 1 of those despite a week of trying to do so. The Virginia data shown is the only data he sent of probably 50 ‘attempts’ that had anything more than a paltry sample size and/or didn’t include multiple qualifying statements (usually in the very small print /footnotes) explaining why the study was, essentially, a very poor attempt to support the “vaccine = less severity” headline / conclusion / claim.

I have heard or read this claim made by medical, media, and political ‘experts’ at least 100 times in the past 2 weeks with declarative & definitive certainty. Surely, someone can show FUBeAR the “scientific and peer review study with statistical analysis” data to support it.

I seem to have noticed phrases like "Covid cases in Virginia" and "the Virginia data" in the above posts.
I cannot tell what all the numbers in the above posts mean. But I do know anecdotally, including both by in person observation and by reading and listening, and I firmly believe, that Virginia seems to be doing (and seems to have done for the entire pandemic) a whole lot better than South Carolina and a whole lot better than Georgia in taking the pandemic seriously - including vaccinations, mask-wearing, and the rest of the various important good sense cautionary measures. Better than Florida and Alabama. I realize that better than those 4 states mentioned is definitely not saying much, since those 4 states seem to be doing things poorly and doing poorly. In fact, I believe Virginia is doing better than most all states. I think Virginia is ranking in the best 10 or maybe the best 4 of all the 50 states plus the US territories.

[FUBeAR]

150,000,000 vaccinated and 125,000 breakthrough cases or .00083%. I like those odds. Not even close to 1%.

Yep - certainly substantial evidence exists supporting some (and, most likely, substantial) efficacy of these vaccines in preventing onset of SARS viruses.

Not the claim(s) about which FUBeAR is skeptical that there is yet enough evidence to validate though.

Amputation of both feet has been proven to be 100% effective in preventing onset of Athlete’s Foot. That said, FUBeAR, personally, believes Tinactin to be a better treatment for his occasional fungal infection(s) despite the impressive efficacy of amputation.

[Davemeister]

I will be optimistic about Fall 2021 if we don't have to wear masks at the football games.

[Furmanoid]

I’m not optimistic about that at all. All I’m hearing is very bad news locally.

[FUBeAR]

I’m not optimistic about that at all. All I’m hearing is very bad news locally.

Bad News, S*x, and the Spread Offense sell clix, pix, and tix, respectively.

Don’t want to ignore any of the 3, but a certain measure of each is just ‘hype.’