No 2020 Season

[The Jackal]

Saw this yesterday from Mercer and thought it is a useful demonstrative on the problem.

Mercer reported earlier this week that out of 316 students tested, 35 students, including 29 athletes, tested positive for the virus in their return to school https://www.macon.com/news/local/educat ... 48327.html

The 11% positivity rate correlates pretty closely with what we see state-wide in Georgia.

What is concerning is that figure does not appear to include most of the nearly 5,000+ students on Mercer's Macon campus or the 900+ faculty and staff. Just assuming current trends, you might expect 500+ cases on campus before the semester starts.

It would not shock me to see similar ratios at Furman.

[FUBeAR]

...this dude is the head of the CDC. He mentions July...so it’s recent.

Risk of Covid mortality for school-age peeps = 1 / 1,000,000

There are about 10,000 FCS Football Players

Per a 2013 NIH study ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23477766/ )...”Results: Football fatalities averaged 12.2 per year, or 1 per 100,000 participants.”

...So, just by playing the game of Football, Players are 10x more at risk of mortality than they are if they ‘catch’ Covid (whether or not they are playing football)

Seems like we’re swatting at a gnat on our nose, while an alligator is chewing off our leg.

If we (NCAA, University Presidents & AD’s, Conference Commissioners, and Players) are risk averse enough to be cancelling football games in 2020 because of Covid, it seems to FUBeAR that they ought to be focused on ‘Cancelling’ the sport of Football forever. Obviously, the sport exceeds our risk tolerance level by a factor of at least 10x.

No?

Well...maybe, for some reason, this year, this Fall particularly, our collective societal risk tolerance level is much lower than it was in 2019 and than it will be in a few months or so.

[JohnW]

If you weren't worried enough think on this. We don't have a season our most talented guys can transfer anywhere without penalty. Eligibility will most likely remain the same and no season means sitting out a year isn't a deterrent either. Could see a big talent drain from FCS to FBS.

[FUBeAR]

Saw this yesterday from Mercer and thought it is a useful demonstrative on the problem.

Mercer reported earlier this week that out of 316 students tested, 35 students, including 29 athletes, tested positive for the virus in their return to school https://www.macon.com/news/local/educat ... 48327.html

The 11% positivity rate correlates pretty closely with what we see state-wide in Georgia.

What is concerning is that figure does not appear to include most of the nearly 5,000+ students on Mercer's Macon campus or the 900+ faculty and staff. Just assuming current trends, you might expect 500+ cases on campus before the semester starts.

It would not shock me to see similar ratios at Furman.

A few comments...

I think that number - 316 includes only ‘early arrivals’ - so, mostly athletes, a few RA’s, campus leaders & such. That would probably explain why 83% (29 of 35) of the positive tests are Athletes.

The rest of the student (more like 3,500 on campus in Macon) arrive in 2 weeks.

So...yeah, they will, most likely, have 350+ new test-positive peeps crawling around campus in 2 weeks...and FU will have 250+ or so...and these stats will be reflected, more or less, at every school, workplace, restaurant, grocery store, Target, keg party, club, Beverly Hills rappers’ mansions parties...ad infinitum.

And the college age kids, except for that 1 in a million, will be like this...from the Mercer article...

“They also say some of the positive students have minor symptoms, but most were asymptomatic.”

[Roundball]

...this dude is the head of the CDC. He mentions July...so it’s recent.

Risk of Covid mortality for school-age peeps = 1 / 1,000,000

There are about 10,000 FCS Football Players

Per a 2013 NIH study ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23477766/ )...”Results: Football fatalities averaged 12.2 per year, or 1 per 100,000 participants.”

...So, just by playing the game of Football, Players are 10x more at risk of mortality than they are if they ‘catch’ Covid (whether or not they are playing football)

Seems like we’re swatting at a gnat on our nose, while an alligator is chewing off our leg.

If we (NCAA, University Presidents & AD’s, Conference Commissioners, and Players) are risk averse enough to be cancelling football games in 2020 because of Covid, it seems to FUBeAR that they ought to be focused on ‘Cancelling’ the sport of Football forever. Obviously, the sport exceeds our risk tolerance level by a factor of at least 10x.

No?

Well...maybe, for some reason, this year, this Fall particularly, our collective societal risk tolerance level is much lower than it was in 2019 and than it will be in a few months or so.

The rest of the story is, these kids can spread the virus to their teachers, parents and grandparents. I don’t know how many more times it needs to be said, this virus is many times more worse than the flu. 160,000 deaths, in just 6 months. FWIW, new model the WH uses shows 300,000 deaths by December if we don’t get serious about wearing a mask and social distancing. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

[Roundball]

Another bad sign. JMU is suspending the start of practice today. I am now getting alarmed at the possibility of a basketball season too. Edit to add, if JMU cancels its season, that leaves North Carolina with an open date. JD needs to be talking to the Tar Heels AD.

[The Jackal]

Saw this yesterday from Mercer and thought it is a useful demonstrative on the problem.

Mercer reported earlier this week that out of 316 students tested, 35 students, including 29 athletes, tested positive for the virus in their return to school https://www.macon.com/news/local/educat ... 48327.html

The 11% positivity rate correlates pretty closely with what we see state-wide in Georgia.

What is concerning is that figure does not appear to include most of the nearly 5,000+ students on Mercer's Macon campus or the 900+ faculty and staff. Just assuming current trends, you might expect 500+ cases on campus before the semester starts.

It would not shock me to see similar ratios at Furman.

A few comments...

I think that number - 316 includes only ‘early arrivals’ - so, mostly athletes, a few RA’s, campus leaders & such. That would probably explain why 83% (29 of 35) of the positive tests are Athletes.

The rest of the student (more like 3,500 on campus in Macon) arrive in 2 weeks.

So...yeah, they will, most likely, have 350+ new test-positive peeps crawling around campus in 2 weeks...and FU will have 250+ or so...and these stats will be reflected, more or less, at every school, workplace, restaurant, grocery store, Target, keg party, club, Beverly Hills rappers’ mansions parties...ad infinitum.

And the college age kids, except for that 1 in a million, will be like this...from the Mercer article...

“They also say some of the positive students have minor symptoms, but most were asymptomatic.”

Those advocating for a return to normal tend to only cite mortality rates among young people. Mortality rates are useful and instructive, but far from dispositive on the concerns from this virus.

We also have to remember that college campuses are not only made up of 18-22 year old students. Mercer, for instance, is one of the largest employers in Bibb County. It isn't just "college kids."

There is absolutely evidence that this virus can impact young people. There is evidence of potentially life altering heart and lung problems and lengthy hospitalizations. No, it is not necessarily fatal (though a 7 year old in Savannah died due to COVID just this week), but it can be devestating to individuals coming in contact with these individuals.

[Furmanoid]

Saw this yesterday from Mercer and thought it is a useful demonstrative on the problem.

Mercer reported earlier this week that out of 316 students tested, 35 students, including 29 athletes, tested positive for the virus in their return to school https://www.macon.com/news/local/educat ... 48327.html

The 11% positivity rate correlates pretty closely with what we see state-wide in Georgia.

What is concerning is that figure does not appear to include most of the nearly 5,000+ students on Mercer's Macon campus or the 900+ faculty and staff. Just assuming current trends, you might expect 500+ cases on campus before the semester starts.

It would not shock me to see similar ratios at Furman.

A few comments...

I think that number - 316 includes only ‘early arrivals’ - so, mostly athletes, a few RA’s, campus leaders & such. That would probably explain why 83% (29 of 35) of the positive tests are Athletes.

The rest of the student (more like 3,500 on campus in Macon) arrive in 2 weeks.

So...yeah, they will, most likely, have 350+ new test-positive peeps crawling around campus in 2 weeks...and FU will have 250+ or so...and these stats will be reflected, more or less, at every school, workplace, restaurant, grocery store, Target, keg party, club, Beverly Hills rappers’ mansions parties...ad infinitum.

And the college age kids, except for that 1 in a million, will be like this...from the Mercer article...

“They also say some of the positive students have minor symptoms, but most were asymptomatic.”

But the thing you aren’t getting is that if Mercer simply cancels football, the players, their families, coaches, refs, Professors etc. gain immunity because the Covid god will appreciate the sacrifice, right? We need to do stuff not because it makes sense but because it shows we are unselfish and willing to sacrifice and that makes us worthy. Viruses like stuff like that.

By the way I used to work with lots of haz waste sites, and the most protective cleanup level EPA generally uses is 1/1,000,000 risk. In this case we are starting out at that level so any reduction in risk will be very hard to detect.

[Flagman]

Encouraged to see that Samford (Florida State) and VMI (Virginia) have secured money games with ACC teams.

[Furmanoid]

Encouraged to see that Samford (Florida State) and VMI (Virginia) have secured money games with ACC teams.

Hard to imagine the SoCon forcing them to walk away from that money.

[cavedweller2]

If i was them and the SoCon says cancel I would just practice and go play that one game.

[Roundball]

And down goes a big one.

[Roundball]

Players opting out at The Citadel.

[Roundball]

News popping everywhere.

[Furmanoid]

And down goes a big one.

The Bison are gonna try to play anyway. We should invite them down.