The Fallout

[tya1]

Jan 22 over Samford gives us 1 of the remaining 7 regular season games that I said we’d win against 4 losses. 6-4 from here on.

I think four losses for the remaining regular season is too pessimistic. Simply discounting our 1st-half performance for away-game disadvantage yields the following, IMHO:
- Most vulnerable game: UNCG (away). Having lost to them at home will make this a tough road game.
- 2nd vulnerable: ETSU (away). Though we won round #1, we'll be away and they're top-dog. Another tough game.
- 3rd / 4th vulnerable: Which? WCU (away) or Wofford (BSW/home)? Lose both? I can't see it. One maybe, not both.
- The rest: Mercer was close, but we next play them at Timmons. Same for Chattanooga (which wasn't even close).
- A surprise meltdown? Perhaps, but I'd say the chance of that is the same as stealing a win at UNCG or ETSU - push.

First half: 7-2. Second half: 6-3.

IMHO-The only 2 for sure losses left are at UNCG and at ETSU.
Home games with UTC and Woffy and at WCU are the next highest loss probability.
Others would not be shocking but more of a surprise including Saturday at Citadel.
FWIW prediction 12-6 give or take a game.

There are no sure losses. No sure wins either, although there are two home games I would rate as 95%+ win probables. We should be solid favorites in the other three home games . We should be big favorites at Samford. At ETSU and UNCG we will be underdogs but we have won on the road once at each place in the previous three years so we can certainly do it again. We won by more at Western Carolina last year then we did at home. Nothing unwinnable about that game, although it won't be easy (unless Dotson is injured like he was against ETSU this week.)

[apaladin]

You are correct, no sure losses or sure wins. Should have said highly likely losses. FYI WCU's Dotson was back in their Wednesday noght loss at Mercer.

[Furmanoid]

There are definitely some sure wins. Today is one. I think we’ll split ETSU/UNCG and win the rest. Ok that’s a lie. I think we’ll lose to Wofford, but I hope I’m wrong.

[FurmAlum]

Today is not a sure win. Citadel does not have an impressive record but they are at home and will be ready for Furman. If we are not ready to play, we will lose. We better play tough defense and work the ball and play together on offense.

We are on the road. (A)Won't get the calls, (B)3 pt.shots's might not be going in. Need to be tough and win on the road anyway if A and B are not favorable. I think we will but it won't be easy.

[Furmanoid]

They don’t have an impressive record because they are terrible.

[CharlieFU]

They don’t have an impressive record because they are terrible.

I have seen worse. And they are without one player.

[Affirm]

As usual, I think we are not as great as some think we are.
As usual, I like to remind people of that fact, if they think we are greater than I think we are.
… So … apparently we are now 15-5.
I can see us winning 7 more regular season games and losing 4 more regular season games.
That will give us a 22-9 record, a 12-6 record in the SoCon, at the end of the regular season.
That will be good.
In the SoCon Tournament, we may win 3 games, but not 4 games.
So if we do win 3 and lose in the final, that would give us a 26-10 record at the end of the regular season. If we win only 2 or only 1, then 25-10 or 24-10.
Hopefully 26-10, 25-10, or 24-10 would allow us to play in the NIT, where we could go 1-1 and end up 27-11, 26-11, or 25-11.
We are not consistent enough, and we do not have a deep enough bench, to do better than the above.
We will not win the SoCon.

Jan 22 over Samford gives us 1 of the remaining 7 regular season games that I said we’d win against 4 losses. 6-4 from here on.

Jan 25 over Citadel makes the 2nd of the remaining 7 regular season wins predicted (w 4 losses, none so far). 5-4 from here on.

[youwouldno]

As usual, I think we are not as great as some think we are.
As usual, I like to remind people of that fact, if they think we are greater than I think we are.
… So … apparently we are now 15-5.
I can see us winning 7 more regular season games and losing 4 more regular season games.
That will give us a 22-9 record, a 12-6 record in the SoCon, at the end of the regular season.
That will be good.
In the SoCon Tournament, we may win 3 games, but not 4 games.
So if we do win 3 and lose in the final, that would give us a 26-10 record at the end of the regular season. If we win only 2 or only 1, then 25-10 or 24-10.
Hopefully 26-10, 25-10, or 24-10 would allow us to play in the NIT, where we could go 1-1 and end up 27-11, 26-11, or 25-11.
We are not consistent enough, and we do not have a deep enough bench, to do better than the above.
We will not win the SoCon.

Jan 22 over Samford gives us 1 of the remaining 7 regular season games that I said we’d win against 4 losses. 6-4 from here on.

Jan 25 over Citadel makes the 2nd of the remaining 7 regular season wins predicted (w 4 losses, none so far). 5-4 from here on.

So how much are you willing to bet if I take the over on 5 wins?

[Affirm]

It’s my prediction.
I’m not betting any $$.
I am betting only my entire reputation as a reliable predictor.
Often times that is not worth much anyway. But it was my prediction Jan 21 11:00 AM, and I am going to keep it and keep referring to it. Likewise my SoCon Tournament prediction from that same time.

[Roundball]

It’s my prediction.
I’m not betting any $$.
I am betting only my entire reputation as a reliable predictor.
Often times that is not worth much anyway. But it was my prediction Jan 21 11:00 AM, and I am going to keep it and keep referring to it. Likewise my SoCon Tournament prediction from that same time.

I hope your prediction of winning 3 games in the SoCon Tournament is correct. Three wins puts us in the Big Dance.

[youwouldno]

It’s my prediction.
I’m not betting any $$.
I am betting only my entire reputation as a reliable predictor.
Often times that is not worth much anyway. But it was my prediction Jan 21 11:00 AM, and I am going to keep it and keep referring to it. Likewise my SoCon Tournament prediction from that same time.

Without any consequences attached to it, it's not a prediction, it's irrelevant prattle that no one cares about except you.

[FUKA61]

Wrong. I liked it.

[Jasper]

Me too. I think AFFIRM has balz

[Roundball]

It’s my prediction.
I’m not betting any $$.
I am betting only my entire reputation as a reliable predictor.
Often times that is not worth much anyway. But it was my prediction Jan 21 11:00 AM, and I am going to keep it and keep referring to it. Likewise my SoCon Tournament prediction from that same time.

Without any consequences attached to it, it's not a prediction, it's irrelevant prattle that no one cares about except you.

Are you saying that affirm's prediction of us winning the SoCon Tournament is foolish talk?

[Affirm]

It’s my prediction.
I’m not betting any $$.
I am betting only my entire reputation as a reliable predictor.
Often times that is not worth much anyway. But it was my prediction Jan 21 11:00 AM, and I am going to keep it and keep referring to it. Likewise my SoCon Tournament prediction from that same time.

Without any consequences attached to it, it's not a prediction, it's irrelevant prattle that no one cares about except you.

Possibly true that no one may care about my prediction. But if I’m wrong, people can say I was wrong; so that IS a consequence. If I’m right, I have the satisfaction of being right; and if wrong, the satisfaction of seeing more wins by FU than I expected.