The Fallout

[gofurman]

If we can go 2-2 in games at Western, at ETSU, at UNCG and home vs Wofford I think we have a real shot at 24-7. But that’s just me. This team is better than they played last night. I am seriously concerned about the bench though. I know it’s been done before, but winning a tourney with only 7 guys seems daunting.

i fully admit I don't follow our basketball closely.. but it is hard to win a weekend tourney w 7 guys. Usually need 8

[Affirm]

As usual, I think we are not as great as some think we are.
As usual, I like to remind people of that fact, if they think we are greater than I think we are.
… So … apparently we are now 15-5.
I can see us winning 7 more regular season games and losing 4 more regular season games.
That will give us a 22-9 record, a 12-6 record in the SoCon, at the end of the regular season.
That will be good.
In the SoCon Tournament, we may win 3 games, but not 4 games.
So if we do win 3 and lose in the final, that would give us a 26-10 record at the end of the regular season. If we win only 2 or only 1, then 25-10 or 24-10.
Hopefully 26-10, 25-10, or 24-10 would allow us to play in the NIT, where we could go 1-1 and end up 27-11, 26-11, or 25-11.
We are not consistent enough, and we do not have a deep enough bench, to do better than the above.
We will not win the SoCon.

[Roundball]

As usual, I think we are not as great as some think we are.
As usual, I like to remind people of that fact, if they think we are greater than I think we are.
… So … apparently we are now 15-5.
I can see us winning 7 more regular season games and losing 4 more regular season games.
That will give us a 22-9 record, a 12-6 record in the SoCon, at the end of the regular season.
That will be good.
In the SoCon Tournament, we may win 3 games, but not 4 games.
So if we do win 3 and lose in the final, that would give us a 26-10 record at the end of the regular season. If we win only 2 or only 1, then 25-10 or 24-10.
Hopefully 26-10, 25-10, or 24-10 would allow us to play in the NIT, where we could go 1-1 and end up 27-11, 26-11, or 25-11.
We are not consistent enough, and we do not have a deep enough bench, to do better than the above.
We will not win the SoCon.

The only thing I agree with is that we will not win 4 games in the tournament. It will only take 3 wins to be the champion.

[CharlieFU]

If we can go 2-2 in games at Western, at ETSU, at UNCG and home vs Wofford I think we have a real shot at 24-7. But that’s just me. This team is better than they played last night. I am seriously concerned about the bench though. I know it’s been done before, but winning a tourney with only 7 guys seems daunting.

i fully admit I don't follow our basketball closely.. but it is hard to win a weekend tourney w 7 guys. Usually need 8

I thought I had posted this. We only have one player averaging as much as 33 min a game—Lyons. Mounce and Gurley are just over 30-31 min. The other 4 (of our 7 man rotation) average 20-30 min. Pretty spread out. It’s not like we got a bunch of guys playing 37-38 min a game.

[Furmanoid]

A bigger problem is that you can’t be aggressive on defense because you can’t afford any foul trouble.

[CharlieFU]

A bigger problem is that you can’t be aggressive on defense because you can’t afford any foul trouble.

Not sure that is true with this team. I don’t have time to look it up but I am guessing players fouling out is not a big problem. When we go to that 1-3-1 it is aggressive. I would do that even more.

[Paul C]

the biggest statistical difference between this years team and our teams of the past couple of years is a glaring regression of our ability to play solid and consistent team defense.

Using SOCON ONLY stats....we are LAST in the SoCon in 2pt FG defense at 56.2% and our overall defensive efficiency is 6th in the conference at 103.1

Last year and in 2018 our 2pt FG D was 48.4% and (coincidentally) in '18 also 48.4% and our overall defensive efficiency was #1 in the SOCON at 96.5 and in '18 was 3rd at 97.3 (lower is better)

This team learns how to play defense again and sky's the limit, as our OVERALL defensive efficiency is 98.0, in line with the last couple of years....meaning we played good D in the non-conference part of the schedule but not lately.

[MNORM]

the biggest statistical difference between this years team and our teams of the past couple of years is a glaring regression of our ability to play solid and consistent team defense.

Using SOCON ONLY stats....we are LAST in the SoCon in 2pt FG defense at 56.2% and our overall defensive efficiency is 6th in the conference at 103.1

Last year and in 2018 our 2pt FG D was 48.4% and (coincidentally) in '18 also 48.4% and our overall defensive efficiency was #1 in the SOCON at 96.5 and in '18 was 3rd at 97.3 (lower is better)

This team learns how to play defense again and sky's the limit, as our OVERALL defensive efficiency is 98.0, in line with the last couple of years....meaning we played good D in the non-conference part of the schedule but not lately.

Simply put...we allow too many layups. Good, quick defensive rotations allow you to double team the guy with the ball without giving up the easy dish to the big man under the basket. I hope CBR spent time working on this the past few days. We have the length to be spectacular at this...but a lot of it is being mentally prepared and experienced enough to immediately and instinctively know where to be.

[Fork457]

Furman's offense is not predicated on three-point shots, its a motion that sets up open looks...A lot of them from three...But when. Furman misses open looks, you can't say its coaching for relying on the three too much...It's missing shots...A coach can only do so much...Players have to make shots...That's the bottom line.

So when the motion offense sets up an open look for a player who cannot shoot from the outside, is it OK for him to take that shot? Shouldn't the harder to make/higher reward shot be reserved for those who have the ability to make them to an acceptable degree? Most good teams have a player or more who are defensive specialists or rebounders. I have never known a coach who did not have a lot to say about shot selection by individuals.

Lol the thing you’re complaining about is shot selection?? We’re the 9th best shooting team in all of college basketball!! I don’t think you understand Coach Richey’s philosophy. We run 4-5 out offense where most of the time all 5 players on the court can make the 3(except Tre Clarke). College basketball is way more complicated than just giving the ball to your best players and letting them shoot. Very strange to me that shot selection is your complaint when we’re top 10 in the nation shooting wise.

[Jasper]

Furman's offense is not predicated on three-point shots, its a motion that sets up open looks...A lot of them from three...But when. Furman misses open looks, you can't say its coaching for relying on the three too much...It's missing shots...A coach can only do so much...Players have to make shots...That's the bottom line.

So when the motion offense sets up an open look for a player who cannot shoot from the outside, is it OK for him to take that shot? Shouldn't the harder to make/higher reward shot be reserved for those who have the ability to make them to an acceptable degree? Most good teams have a player or more who are defensive specialists or rebounders. I have never known a coach who did not have a lot to say about shot selection by individuals.

Lol the thing you’re complaining about is shot selection?? We’re the 9th best shooting team in all of college basketball!! I don’t think you understand Coach Richey’s philosophy. We run 4-5 out offense where most of the time all 5 players on the court can make the 3(except Tre Clarke). College basketball is way more complicated than just giving the ball to your best players and letting them shoot. Very strange to me that shot selection is your complaint when we’re top 10 in the nation shooting wise.

Talking about LOL - you might want to show your stats to the Wofford coach.

[Fork457]

Furman's offense is not predicated on three-point shots, its a motion that sets up open looks...A lot of them from three...But when. Furman misses open looks, you can't say its coaching for relying on the three too much...It's missing shots...A coach can only do so much...Players have to make shots...That's the bottom line.

So when the motion offense sets up an open look for a player who cannot shoot from the outside, is it OK for him to take that shot? Shouldn't the harder to make/higher reward shot be reserved for those who have the ability to make them to an acceptable degree? Most good teams have a player or more who are defensive specialists or rebounders. I have never known a coach who did not have a lot to say about shot selection by individuals.

Lol the thing you’re complaining about is shot selection?? We’re the 9th best shooting team in all of college basketball!! I don’t think you understand Coach Richey’s philosophy. We run 4-5 out offense where most of the time all 5 players on the court can make the 3(except Tre Clarke). College basketball is way more complicated than just giving the ball to your best players and letting them shoot. Very strange to me that shot selection is your complaint when we’re top 10 in the nation shooting wise.

Talking about LOL - you might want to show your stats to the Wofford coach.

Yeah we had a below average shooting game. The things you were saying made it sound like we need to make major changes which is silly if you look at the grand scheme of things.

[Affirm]

As usual, I think we are not as great as some think we are.
As usual, I like to remind people of that fact, if they think we are greater than I think we are.
… So … apparently we are now 15-5.
I can see us winning 7 more regular season games and losing 4 more regular season games.
That will give us a 22-9 record, a 12-6 record in the SoCon, at the end of the regular season.
That will be good.
In the SoCon Tournament, we may win 3 games, but not 4 games.
So if we do win 3 and lose in the final, that would give us a 26-10 record at the end of the regular season. If we win only 2 or only 1, then 25-10 or 24-10.
Hopefully 26-10, 25-10, or 24-10 would allow us to play in the NIT, where we could go 1-1 and end up 27-11, 26-11, or 25-11.
We are not consistent enough, and we do not have a deep enough bench, to do better than the above.
We will not win the SoCon.

Jan 22 over Samford gives us 1 of the remaining 7 regular season games that I said we’d win against 4 losses. 6-4 from here on.

[furpop16]

Jan 22 over Samford gives us 1 of the remaining 7 regular season games that I said we’d win against 4 losses. 6-4 from here on.

I think four losses for the remaining regular season is too pessimistic. Simply discounting our 1st-half performance for away-game disadvantage yields the following, IMHO:
- Most vulnerable game: UNCG (away). Having lost to them at home will make this a tough road game.
- 2nd vulnerable: ETSU (away). Though we won round #1, we'll be away and they're top-dog. Another tough game.
- 3rd / 4th vulnerable: Which? WCU (away) or Wofford (BSW/home)? Lose both? I can't see it. One maybe, not both.
- The rest: Mercer was close, but we next play them at Timmons. Same for Chattanooga (which wasn't even close).
- A surprise meltdown? Perhaps, but I'd say the chance of that is the same as stealing a win at UNCG or ETSU - push.

First half: 7-2. Second half: 6-3.

[Jasper]

Furman's offense is not predicated on three-point shots, its a motion that sets up open looks...A lot of them from three...But when. Furman misses open looks, you can't say its coaching for relying on the three too much...It's missing shots...A coach can only do so much...Players have to make shots...That's the bottom line.

So when the motion offense sets up an open look for a player who cannot shoot from the outside, is it OK for him to take that shot? Shouldn't the harder to make/higher reward shot be reserved for those who have the ability to make them to an acceptable degree? Most good teams have a player or more who are defensive specialists or rebounders. I have never known a coach who did not have a lot to say about shot selection by individuals.

Lol the thing you’re complaining about is shot selection?? We’re the 9th best shooting team in all of college basketball!! I don’t think you understand Coach Richey’s philosophy. We run 4-5 out offense where most of the time all 5 players on the court can make the 3(except Tre Clarke). College basketball is way more complicated than just giving the ball to your best players and letting them shoot. Very strange to me that shot selection is your complaint when we’re top 10 in the nation shooting wise.

Talking about LOL - you might want to show your stats to the Wofford coach.

Yeah we had a below average shooting game. The things you were saying made it sound like we need to make major changes which is silly if you look at the grand scheme of things.

I said nothing about major changes. The change I was talking about is already taking place. More PT for Mike Bothwell, the most creative offensive player on the team. I said It was obvious and certainly stand by that

[apaladin]

Jan 22 over Samford gives us 1 of the remaining 7 regular season games that I said we’d win against 4 losses. 6-4 from here on.

I think four losses for the remaining regular season is too pessimistic. Simply discounting our 1st-half performance for away-game disadvantage yields the following, IMHO:
- Most vulnerable game: UNCG (away). Having lost to them at home will make this a tough road game.
- 2nd vulnerable: ETSU (away). Though we won round #1, we'll be away and they're top-dog. Another tough game.
- 3rd / 4th vulnerable: Which? WCU (away) or Wofford (BSW/home)? Lose both? I can't see it. One maybe, not both.
- The rest: Mercer was close, but we next play them at Timmons. Same for Chattanooga (which wasn't even close).
- A surprise meltdown? Perhaps, but I'd say the chance of that is the same as stealing a win at UNCG or ETSU - push.

First half: 7-2. Second half: 6-3.

IMHO-The only 2 for sure losses left are at UNCG and at ETSU.
Home games with UTC and Woffy and at WCU are the next highest loss probability.
Others would not be shocking but more of a surprise including Saturday at Citadel.
FWIW prediction 12-6 give or take a game.