Playoff Picture

[soconjohn]

Virginia Tech 45, Georgia Tech 0...Furman win today and there's no way they're out...Chattanooga I think needs to continue to play well today....The had the second-toughest slate in FCS football and seven wins vs. that would be really impressive...And there's no scenario where The Citadel gets in over Furman...I don't see how could finish lower than Furman in SoCon and I don't believe any three-loss team in SoCon play has ever made it...They would only be validated in taking Wofford (auto bid anyway but even without that guarantee) over Furman, but never The Citadel despite head-to-head.

[gofurman]

Virginia Tech 45, Georgia Tech 0...Furman win today and there's no way they're out...Chattanooga I think needs to continue to play well today....The had the second-toughest slate in FCS football and seven wins vs. that would be really impressive...And there's no scenario where The Citadel gets in over Furman...I don't see how could finish lower than Furman in SoCon and I don't believe any three-loss team in SoCon play has ever made it...They would only be validated in taking Wofford (auto bid anyway but even without that guarantee) over Furman, but never The Citadel despite head-to-head.

I don’t give the committee enough credit to go 2nd degree of separation. Citadel beat us. Citadel beat Georgia Tech. We lost to VTech in a well played game. I have no faith the VT Vs GT score carries much weight.

Thankfully I don’t think it matters

[purplehorse]

We are getting no help (SELA and CAS won; Albany and Towson cruising in first quarter). I don’t think it matters.

We want VMI to beat UTC so we can be # 2 in Southern Conference.

The playoffs are a new chapter. No doubt who was the best team in the conference during the regular season. I think Citadel so far is 0-13 on 3rd down and 0-2 on the two 4th downs I saw.

[The Jackal]

We are getting no help (SELA and CAS won; Albany and Towson cruising in first quarter). I don’t think it matters.

We want VMI to beat UTC so we can be # 2 in Southern Conference.

The playoffs are a new chapter. No doubt who was the best team in the conference during the regular season. I think Citadel so far is 0-13 on 3rd down and 0-2 on the two 4th downs I saw.

I think we'd prefer UTC to win. We'd finish technically second either way because we beat UTC. UTC winning would also boost our "best" victory.

[The Jackal]

There are a few other bubble teams that are losing. Maine and North Dakota are losing. A few other bubble teams, SCSU, SEMO, etc. are locked in close games.

The game that may be the biggest problem in NDSU/SIU. NDSU doesn't lose often, and we really need them to win today.

Illinois State lost, which may open a door for a Wofford seed. Montana losing too.

[The Jackal]

Also, Charleston Southern has sort of quietly put together a nice season. They're going for their 6th win today against Campbell and a potential third place finish in the Big South.

[The Jackal]

KSU only beating GWU by 7. Gardner Webb is awful.

[cavedweller2]

Montana St thumping the Griz late in the first half. 24-0

[The Jackal]

Montana St thumping the Griz late in the first half. 24-0

With Ill. State losing big and Montana looking like they are as well, it wouldn't surprise me to see Wofford sneak in with a seed after their dominant win today.

[gofurman]

Agree, the saving grace for us is our ranking, however, I suspect in the minds of the committee that we are a 7 win team (don't think they'll count Point for us). If we don't get in we can't cry about it. We had our chance to take it out of the hands of the committee last week and laid a giant turd on the field.

Remember the committee counted ETSU's win over Mars Hill last year but ignored FU's big win over WC. Even if they discount the Point win(assuming we win) then they would have to discount the 2 FBS losses and we would have a 7-2 record, better than any other 7 win team. Then again who knows.

The more and more I look at the FCS standings, the more Furman's 7-2 record against FCS opponents stands out. A large majority of the teams we are on the bubble with are 7-3 or 7-4 (The Citadel could be 7-5) against FCS teams. That has to be a check mark in our column despite not having a great win (RE: a win against a playoff team or FBS squad).

Believe there are 18 locks right now:
Big Sky (4)
Big South (1)
CAA (2)
MVFC (4)
Northeast (1)
OVC (2)
Patriot (1)
Pioneer (1)
Southern (1)
Southland (1)

And in my opinion Furman is on the bubble with about 9 teams trying to claim 6 spots:
Kennesaw State
Albany
Towson
North Dakota
MEAC #2 (SC State or NC A&T)
Southern Illinois
UT Martin
Central Arkansas
SE Louisiana

So gofurman, here's who you want to pull against tonight/tomorrow (besides SEL, who has already lost). Albany, Towson, Southern Illinois, UT Martin, Central Arkansas are all virtual locks with wins, which could potentially put Furman in a situation where it's battling four teams for one spot. My hope is that our resume is better in the committee's eyes than Kennesaw, MEAC #2, North Dakota and SE Louisiana.

Fufanatic, a sincere Thank you for doing this. Really do appreciate you simplifying it for me

[apaladin]

Montana St thumping the Griz late in the first half. 24-0

With Ill. State losing big and Montana looking like they are as well, it wouldn't surprise me to see Wofford sneak in with a seed after their dominant win today.

I think WC will get a seed now for no other reason than travel. Not many possible seeds on the east coast, but they would have to jump several teams.

[purplehorse]

Elon came back and beat Towson 25-23 so Towson is 7-5. That helps us a little.

I think. We are IN so I am glad VMI beat UTC so we were clearly the # 2 team in Southern Conference.

I would not mind at all Wofford being seeded and us playing them in the second round. NO 2nd round game will be easy and that would prevent us from playing in frigid snowy weather in the second round. Granted they are a very formidable opponent but we can play better than we did last time. We would be a distinct underdog but that would be the case against any seeded team. Plus Wofford would be the closest to a “home” game. That is my story and I am sticking to it!

Happy with KS and Wofford. Hopefully we have matured on D against the run.

[cavedweller2]

The undisputed SoCon auto bid champion should be a top 8 seed. Should being the operative word.

[cavedweller2]

Montana St thumping the Griz late in the first half. 24-0

DPLOT

48-14 Bobcats.

[The Jackal]

FWIW, Charleston Southern has a two touchdown lead at the half over Campbell. That would give them six wins and they'd finish third in the Big South behind KSU and Monmouth (I think).

May help with Furman on the bubble with the Big South's No. 2 team. Furman clobbered their No. 3 team.