Playoff Picture

[apaladin]

SELA lost to 5-6 Incarnate Word and 6-5 McNeese. This really didn’t matter.

Yes but they also beat #11 34-0 2 weeks ago. They are in at 7-4. Nicholls would have had 5 losses.

UCA is in their own conference, really hasn't done much, and has been blasted by both Nicholls and SELA. You could make an argument that their highest ranked team is the weakest of the three.

Exactly they have rode that WKU win in the opener all year like I said earlier. Besides getting blasted by these 2 they have 2 one point wins over #7 and #8

[fufanatic]

I don't think we can look at last night's results as anything but not great for bubble teams, which we are part of. I'm old enough to remember a year where the Southland got three teams in despite how undeserving some were. Why would we expect a different result a year later? Thankfully, Furman's resume this year is more impressive than last year's.

[The Jackal]

I don't think we can look at last night's results as anything but not great for bubble teams, which we are part of. I'm old enough to remember a year where the Southland got three teams in despite how undeserving some were. Why would we expect a different result a year later? Thankfully, Furman's resume this year is more impressive than last year's.

I did a side by side, and last year's Furman team shares a lot of similarities with Southeast Louisiana.

One thing Furman has going for them is their ranking. To my knowledge, Furman has not fallen outside the top 20 all season in any poll. Looking back, I can't find a single eligible team the last 5 or 6 years that was left out of the playoff field with a ranking in the top 20.

It is fairly rare for a team inside the top 25 to get left out, though it happens. Most of those teams were fringy 7 win teams in multi-bid conferences.

I think that Furman being left in the polling in the mid-teens was huge after the loss to Wofford.

[bj93]

Agree, the saving grace for us is our ranking, however, I suspect in the minds of the committee that we are a 7 win team (don't think they'll count Point for us). If we don't get in we can't cry about it. We had our chance to take it out of the hands of the committee last week and laid a giant turd on the field.

[purplehorse]

I am still torn about the Wofford-Citadel winner. I know last year a 6-5 and a couple of 7-5 teams got in the playoffs but I have not had time or desire to see if they were automatic qualifiers.

I guess I would sleep better Saturday night if Wofford wins but still...

We shall see!

I would take a first round game against any Southland team.

[Flagman]

I am still torn about the Wofford-Citadel winner. I know last year a 6-5 and a couple of 7-5 teams got in the playoffs but I have not had time or desire to see if they were automatic qualifiers.

I guess I would sleep better Saturday night if Wofford wins but still...

We shall see!

I would take a first round game against any Southland team.

I watched the 4th quarter of the Nichols-SE Louisiana game last night. A wild finish, to say the least. I’ll take a game with either of these, if we can play at home. I’m hoping Jason Donnelly and Elizabeth Davis are willing to come off the hip with a bid sufficient to get a home game.

[apaladin]

Agree, the saving grace for us is our ranking, however, I suspect in the minds of the committee that we are a 7 win team (don't think they'll count Point for us). If we don't get in we can't cry about it. We had our chance to take it out of the hands of the committee last week and laid a giant turd on the field.

double

[apaladin]

Agree, the saving grace for us is our ranking, however, I suspect in the minds of the committee that we are a 7 win team (don't think they'll count Point for us). If we don't get in we can't cry about it. We had our chance to take it out of the hands of the committee last week and laid a giant turd on the field.

Remember the committee counted ETSU's win over Mars Hill last year but ignored FU's big win over WC. Even if they discount the Point win(assuming we win) then they would have to discount the 2 FBS losses and we would have a 7-2 record, better than any other 7 win team. Then again who knows. One other thing is I am definitely pulling on WC so of course Citadel will win.

[fufanatic]

Agree, the saving grace for us is our ranking, however, I suspect in the minds of the committee that we are a 7 win team (don't think they'll count Point for us). If we don't get in we can't cry about it. We had our chance to take it out of the hands of the committee last week and laid a giant turd on the field.

Remember the committee counted ETSU's win over Mars Hill last year but ignored FU's big win over WC. Even if they discount the Point win(assuming we win) then they would have to discount the 2 FBS losses and we would have a 7-2 record, better than any other 7 win team. Then again who knows.

The more and more I look at the FCS standings, the more Furman's 7-2 record against FCS opponents stands out. A large majority of the teams we are on the bubble with are 7-3 or 7-4 (The Citadel could be 7-5) against FCS teams. That has to be a check mark in our column despite not having a great win (RE: a win against a playoff team or FBS squad).

Believe there are 18 locks right now:
Big Sky (4)
Big South (1)
CAA (2)
MVFC (4)
Northeast (1)
OVC (2)
Patriot (1)
Pioneer (1)
Southern (1)
Southland (1)

And in my opinion Furman is on the bubble with about 9 teams trying to claim 6 spots:
Kennesaw State
Albany
Towson
North Dakota
MEAC #2 (SC State or NC A&T)
Southern Illinois
UT Martin
Central Arkansas
SE Louisiana

So gofurman, here's who you want to pull against tonight/tomorrow (besides SEL, who has already lost). Albany, Towson, Southern Illinois, UT Martin, Central Arkansas are all virtual locks with wins, which could potentially put Furman in a situation where it's battling four teams for one spot. My hope is that our resume is better in the committee's eyes than Kennesaw, MEAC #2, North Dakota and SE Louisiana.

[bigpurple75]

think the first thing we need to do is win tomorrow.

[apaladin]

Agree, the saving grace for us is our ranking, however, I suspect in the minds of the committee that we are a 7 win team (don't think they'll count Point for us). If we don't get in we can't cry about it. We had our chance to take it out of the hands of the committee last week and laid a giant turd on the field.

Remember the committee counted ETSU's win over Mars Hill last year but ignored FU's big win over WC. Even if they discount the Point win(assuming we win) then they would have to discount the 2 FBS losses and we would have a 7-2 record, better than any other 7 win team. Then again who knows.

The more and more I look at the FCS standings, the more Furman's 7-2 record against FCS opponents stands out. A large majority of the teams we are on the bubble with are 7-3 or 7-4 (The Citadel could be 7-5) against FCS teams. That has to be a check mark in our column despite not having a great win (RE: a win against a playoff team or FBS squad).

Believe there are 18 locks right now:
Big Sky (4)
Big South (1)
CAA (2)
MVFC (4)
Northeast (1)
OVC (2)
Patriot (1)
Pioneer (1)
Southern (1)
Southland (1)

And in my opinion Furman is on the bubble with about 9 teams trying to claim 6 spots:
Kennesaw State
Albany
Towson
North Dakota
MEAC #2 (SC State or NC A&T)
Southern Illinois
UT Martin
Central Arkansas
SE Louisiana

So gofurman, here's who you want to pull against tonight/tomorrow (besides SEL, who has already lost). Albany, Towson, Southern Illinois, UT Martin, Central Arkansas are all virtual locks with wins, which could potentially put Furman in a situation where it's battling four teams for one spot. My hope is that our resume is better in the committee's eyes than Kennesaw, MEAC #2, North Dakota and SE Louisiana.

With all due respect I don't see some of your locks as locks. From the coaches poll they use:
Current standing in regards to FU at #15 and 277 votes/points-Note NDSU has 650 points
Albany #28 12 votes FU up 265 points-spots/votes needed to jump FU 14/266
Towson #20 151 votes FU up 126 points-spots/votes needed to jump FU 6/127
UT-Martin #30 2 votes FU up 275 points-spots/votes needed to jump FU 16/276
So. Illinois #24 35 votes FU up 242 points-plays NDSU Saturday so almost certain loss)-spots/votes needed 10/243
Central Arkansas only "lock" I agree with.

Only one I could see passing FU is Towson. So Furman should be a lock, but you never know.

[DungeonRealm]

FYI, VA Tech is ranked #25 in the AP Poll, our close game there really helps going by what the committee head said, hopefully VA Tech wins again tomorrow

[fufanatic]

Agree, the saving grace for us is our ranking, however, I suspect in the minds of the committee that we are a 7 win team (don't think they'll count Point for us). If we don't get in we can't cry about it. We had our chance to take it out of the hands of the committee last week and laid a giant turd on the field.

Remember the committee counted ETSU's win over Mars Hill last year but ignored FU's big win over WC. Even if they discount the Point win(assuming we win) then they would have to discount the 2 FBS losses and we would have a 7-2 record, better than any other 7 win team. Then again who knows.

The more and more I look at the FCS standings, the more Furman's 7-2 record against FCS opponents stands out. A large majority of the teams we are on the bubble with are 7-3 or 7-4 (The Citadel could be 7-5) against FCS teams. That has to be a check mark in our column despite not having a great win (RE: a win against a playoff team or FBS squad).

Believe there are 18 locks right now:
Big Sky (4)
Big South (1)
CAA (2)
MVFC (4)
Northeast (1)
OVC (2)
Patriot (1)
Pioneer (1)
Southern (1)
Southland (1)

And in my opinion Furman is on the bubble with about 9 teams trying to claim 6 spots:
Kennesaw State
Albany
Towson
North Dakota
MEAC #2 (SC State or NC A&T)
Southern Illinois
UT Martin
Central Arkansas
SE Louisiana

So gofurman, here's who you want to pull against tonight/tomorrow (besides SEL, who has already lost). Albany, Towson, Southern Illinois, UT Martin, Central Arkansas are all virtual locks with wins, which could potentially put Furman in a situation where it's battling four teams for one spot. My hope is that our resume is better in the committee's eyes than Kennesaw, MEAC #2, North Dakota and SE Louisiana.

With all due respect I don't see some of your locks as locks. From the coaches poll they use:
Current standing in regards to FU at #15 and 277 votes/points-Note NDSU has 650 points
Albany #28 12 votes FU up 265 points-spots/votes needed to jump FU 14/266
Towson #20 151 votes FU up 126 points-spots/votes needed to jump FU 6/127
UT-Martin #30 2 votes FU up 275 points-spots/votes needed to jump FU 16/276
So. Illinois #24 35 votes FU up 242 points-plays NDSU Saturday so almost certain loss)-spots/votes needed 10/243
Central Arkansas only "lock" I agree with.

Only one I could see passing FU is Towson. So Furman should be a lock, but you never know.

I said those teams are only virtual locks if they win ... Albany and Towson are CAA ... which automatically gives them a boost in the committee's eyes. Can't imagine either would get left out with 8 wins. If UT Martin beats Kentucky (would be best FCS over FBS win all year) they would be 8-4. Don't see them being left out in that circumstance. If Southern Illinois beats NDSU, they would be 8-4 and potentially seeded. With a loss they are probably out, but not guaranteed. I think all those teams would more than likely be in if they win. If they lose, I think they might all be out. Central Arkansas is probably in regardless despite not much to write home about all year except FBS win over WKU early in the season.

[fufanatic]

Central Arkansas won tonight. They are more than likely in as an at-large at 9-3 with FBS win and a victory over playoff squad Austin Peay back-to-back to open the year. Co-champs.

[gofurman]

I don't think we can look at last night's results as anything but not great for bubble teams, which we are part of. I'm old enough to remember a year where the Southland got three teams in despite how undeserving some were. Why would we expect a different result a year later? Thankfully, Furman's resume this year is more impressive than last year's.

I did a side by side, and last year's Furman team shares a lot of similarities with Southeast Louisiana.

One thing Furman has going for them is their ranking. To my knowledge, Furman has not fallen outside the top 20 all season in any poll. Looking back, I can't find a single eligible team the last 5 or 6 years that was left out of the playoff field with a ranking in the top 20.

It is fairly rare for a team inside the top 25 to get left out, though it happens. Most of those teams were fringy 7 win teams in multi-bid conferences.

I think that Furman being left in the polling in the mid-teens was huge after the loss to Wofford.

Jackal, Exactly. ITS JUST MATH. Granted, the fringe (ranked 21-27) is not as simple but only about a few teams in past 5 yrs of top 20 AGS polls have been left out of playoffs. No,worries. Just like someone above said, we were ranked at end of 2017. Playoffs. No rank last year. No playoffs. It’s pretty simple.

It’s just math part 2 - Still can’t believe someone on here said that Woff would get in top 25 ranking. . I said Woff would run a few wins of VMI etc (NOT counting vs us) and make top 25. They won. And were put at 17/20 in polls. A team w name recognition at 6-2 is gonna be in poll. They were. The statement was actually more like “Woff will Never make top 25 this year “. That’s like saying 2+2 doesn’t equal 4. I hate Woff. But math is math and rankings are rankings. Facts is facts

Go Paladins !!!

Good stuff - after this year we have 3 years of Furman data w playoff chances to analyze. If selected this year we can basically say “ranked is in”.
Ranked 2017 22/25. Got in.
Not ranked 2018. Not In.
2019 ranked 15 or mid-teens ???


Anyway. I think we are easy in. Want Austin Peay. WHy? I Would actually rather beat KSU as they have some. smack talkers on AGS (Austin P doesn’t) but I Don’t want KSU as our Citadel and Woff results worry me for that. IE if I knew we would win I would easily prefer to beat KSU to shut down the smack and avenge our 2016 loss!!! Man that was a debacle to watch vs a second year team or whatever. But our recent results vs style of run offense has me wanting Austin Peay. Just sayin. I Watched Austin Peay play Mercer. I’d take that battle.

Anyone know if starting Austin Peay QB has returned ? thanks in advance