SoCon

[Paul C]

Current Pomeroy rankings show the SoCon as "have's" and "have nots"

ETSU 79
UNCG 90
FU 104
Mercer 147
Wofford 178
WCU 290
Samford 296
Chatt 302
Citadel 313
VMI 332

[tya1]

Don't we play two of Top 6 at WCu and ETSU?

Oops. I should have said we play one of the top five (according to Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc.)

[apaladin]

http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000//so ... EM_ID=4000

Do we want to finish 3rd or 4th? I think we match up better against ETSU than UNCG.

I think we really need to worry about our first game rather than ETSU or UNCG. I think it would be better to play WCU than Mercer. Beating Mercer 3 times would be a tough task especially since they were not at full strength when they played us.

[CharlieFU]

Mercer beat uncg tonight. Want no part of that.

[hawg]

I love playing people who know how to lose.

[apaladin]

Mercer continues their late season surge by beating UNCG today 77-74. I do not want to see Mercer in the first game. They are odds on favorite to finish 5th now and WCU 6th meaning we need to finish 3rd to avoid Mercer the first game in the tourney.
in other games:
VMI won at the Citadel
WC won at Chattanooga
ETSU won at WCU

[The Jackal]

Mercer continues their late season surge by beating UNCG today 77-74. I do not want to see Mercer in the first game. They are odds on favorite to finish 5th now and WCU 6th meaning we need to finish 3rd to avoid Mercer the first game in the tourney.
in other games:
VMI won at the Citadel
WC won at Chattanooga
ETSU won at WCU

I would suspect that after 5 straight losses, Mercer probably doesn’t want to see us either.

[apaladin]

Mercer continues their late season surge by beating UNCG today 77-74. I do not want to see Mercer in the first game. They are odds on favorite to finish 5th now and WCU 6th meaning we need to finish 3rd to avoid Mercer the first game in the tourney.
in other games:
VMI won at the Citadel
WC won at Chattanooga
ETSU won at WCU

I would suspect that after 5 straight losses, Mercer probably doesn’t want to see us either.

Maybe but remember they were not at full strength either time we played them this year and after 5 straight losses to FU the law of averages will be in their favor.

[gman]

Mercer continues their late season surge by beating UNCG today 77-74. I do not want to see Mercer in the first game. They are odds on favorite to finish 5th now and WCU 6th meaning we need to finish 3rd to avoid Mercer the first game in the tourney.
in other games:
VMI won at the Citadel
WC won at Chattanooga
ETSU won at WCU

I would suspect that after 5 straight losses, Mercer probably doesn’t want to see us either.

Maybe but remember they were not at full strength either time we played them this year and after 5 straight losses to FU the law of averages will be in their favor.

Strawberry is back. That is all I need to know this is not the same team we beat twice this year.

[apaladin]

Strawberry missed the first game and their leading scorer missed the second game.

[tya1]

Latest scenarios -

ETSU or UNCG are the only teams with a shot at first place. Tiebreakers tend to favor UNCG.

Furman and Wofford could finish second. They could also finish as low as a tie for fifth.

UNCG could finish as low as fourth place. Also unlikely.

Mercer has locked up a first day bye. They have a slight chance of finishing as high as third.

Western Carolina doesn't have a bye wrapped up but at least five games will have to go against them to fall to seventh place.

[Paul C]

If you use the % prob of W on kenpom.com to calculate the most likely scenarios over the last 3 games:

Looks like the most likely SoCon final standings will be:

ETSU 17-1
UNCG 15-3
Furman 12-6
Wofford 11-7
Mercer 10-8
WCU 8-10
Samford 6-12
Citadel 4-14
VMI 4-14
UT-C 3-15

Of course, we can probably bet that WON'T happen, let's just go out and take care of business.