I hate to say it but the only two mid-major conferences where "playing" a tough OOC schedule can help you is the AAC and the A10. "Winning" a tough OOC game is a completely different matter than scheduling them. A "low" mid-major like Furman needs to win half of those tougher OOC games OR have two or fewer losses in an unexpectedly tough conference (i.e. Woffy this year) OR get the auto-bid by winning the tournament. As a "low" mid-major you have to assume those are going to be losses. True mid-majors like the top of the AAC and A10 can afford to gamble a bit by factoring in some wins from those games in case they don't win their tourney.
The rest of the conferences are consistently playing for conference winners -- although there are exceptions every year. The only reason that Woffy was a possibility for an at large before the tournament is because Furman, UNCG, and ETSU were so good this year. If Woffy finishes 28-5 (losing the tournament final) in a much weaker SoCon, then they are a bubble team hoping for no upsets in other tournaments. Their OOC losses mean nothing unless the rest of the conference becomes unexpectedly good.
Look at New Mexico State -- 28-5 -- they need to win their tournament to get in because the rest of the conference is so weak. They could still get in, but they would need help. No amount of OOC scheduling would have helped them. Beating a tough OOC opponent, like we did, helps you immensely but scheduling them and losing does nothing to help you. So either way you are back to "gotta win my tournament". So as a lower mid-major you have to focus your efforts on winning your tournament. In some years your conference may be unexpectedly good and you squeak in with an at-large; but nobody is betting that the rest of the SoCon will be unexpectedly good.
I think the SoCon can become one of those true mid-major basketball conferences with Woffy, ETSU, UNCG, and (possibly) Furman leading the way. It just takes time and consistency to get there.
The rest of the conferences are consistently playing for conference winners -- although there are exceptions every year. The only reason that Woffy was a possibility for an at large before the tournament is because Furman, UNCG, and ETSU were so good this year. If Woffy finishes 28-5 (losing the tournament final) in a much weaker SoCon, then they are a bubble team hoping for no upsets in other tournaments. Their OOC losses mean nothing unless the rest of the conference becomes unexpectedly good.
Look at New Mexico State -- 28-5 -- they need to win their tournament to get in because the rest of the conference is so weak. They could still get in, but they would need help. No amount of OOC scheduling would have helped them. Beating a tough OOC opponent, like we did, helps you immensely but scheduling them and losing does nothing to help you. So either way you are back to "gotta win my tournament". So as a lower mid-major you have to focus your efforts on winning your tournament. In some years your conference may be unexpectedly good and you squeak in with an at-large; but nobody is betting that the rest of the SoCon will be unexpectedly good.
I think the SoCon can become one of those true mid-major basketball conferences with Woffy, ETSU, UNCG, and (possibly) Furman leading the way. It just takes time and consistency to get there.
