Giant Killers
PostPosted:Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:06 pm
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... nt-killers
Walder
ESPN Analytics
It's time to update our list of the next batch of Giant Killers.
We're a month out from the First Four and less than a month away from Selection Sunday. So who is going to be wreaking havoc in that first round in the tournament? We provided a first look a month ago, and of that list, South Dakota State and Dayton (if it can get in) remain legitimate Giant Killer candidates. But a lot has also happened over the past four weeks, so there are some new teams to add to the fray.
Below are some of the most dangerous Giant Killing candidates, according to our model, which is based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index and makes adjustments for box score strengths and weaknesses for every possible matchup. Teams with at least a 25 percent chance to reach the tournament and an average projected seed of at least 10.7 with matchups against teams with a projected seed of 6.3 or better were considered.
Lipscomb Bisons
Our model's five highest Giant Killer win percentage matchups by the above criteria all feature Lipscomb -- against Buffalo, Marquette, LSU, Florida State and Houston. The Bisons would have at least a 35 percent chance against all of those teams.
At this point I would hazard a guess that no team is more likely to end up on our final list of Giant Killers than Lipscomb, between our model's general fondness for the team and its 59 percent chance to reach the NCAA tournament, per BPI.
The Bisons' best asset is their defense, thanks in part to allowing opponents very few second-chance opportunities. And they might even be slightly underrated on defense by BPI because opponents are hitting free throws at a very high 74.2 percent clip against the Bisons, per KenPom.
Offensively they have weapons from both short and long range, with senior guard Garrison Mathews leading their scoring efforts from beyond the arc (40 percent from 3-point range this season) and senior forward Rob Marberry an asset in the post. Despite playing at a blazing pace, the Bisons are better in the half court on both offense and defense.
Of the five teams mentioned above, Buffalo would be the Bisons' best matchup. Should Lipscomb luck out and face the Bulls in a potential 11-6 game, it would have the edge in both 2- and 3-point shooting and would have, by our measure, a 44 percent chance to pull off the upset.
Murray State Racers
There may not be a team seeded 11th or lower that opponents want to see less than Murray State. And you know exactly why: Ja Morant.
The superstar future top-five pick makes the Racers incredibly dangerous. It's not just the high-flying acrobatic dunks, but also his off-the-charts passing that makes scouts salivate and opponents worry. Murray may trail Zion Williamson in dunk highlights, but he leads the nation in assist rate, per KenPom.
Led by Morant's abilities to score near the rim and help others to do the same, the Racers have the sixth-best field goal rate on 2-point shots in Division I. And they're coming right at you: Murray State is one of the best transition offenses in the country and one that runs the break frequently.
The Racers still have work to do to get into the tournament, however: They are the best team in the Ohio Valley, per BPI, but Belmont is a close second, so the Racers have only a 41 percent chance to win the conference tournament.
Hofstra Pride
We recently covered Justin Wright-Foreman as a potential Giant Killing star, but Hofstra's squad deserves a mention here because its offensive prowess could allow it to take down a big name in March.
BPI, which is constantly adjusting for opponent, believes that little old Hofstra has the 16th-best offense in the country. Led by Wright-Foreman, the team excels at shooting from 3-point range and is literally the best free throw shooting team in the country, per KenPom. The Pride almost never turn the ball over.
Hofstra's average projected seed in the tournament is 12.1, and potential No. 5 seed Marquette would be its best bet in part thanks to that aforementioned ability to avoid turnovers. Against the Golden Eagles our Giant Killers model would give the Pride a 29 percent chance to win.
Furman Paladins
Another name to add to our list of Giant Killer individuals: Furman senior forward Matt Rafferty. Though we often highlight players who shine on offense, Rafferty is worth lauding for the defensive statistics he is piling up.
Rafferty has the 10th-best steal rate in Division I, per KenPom, in addition to accumulating a little over a block per game. That's in addition to solid rebounding and very efficient scoring en route to over 17 points per game.
Overall, the Paladins attempt a ton of 3-pointers and rely on their pesky defense -- which forces a high rate of steals and doesn't allow opponents to get to the line -- for their success. They remain a longer shot to get into the tournament, however, with a 30 percent chance, per BPI.
Walder
ESPN Analytics
It's time to update our list of the next batch of Giant Killers.
We're a month out from the First Four and less than a month away from Selection Sunday. So who is going to be wreaking havoc in that first round in the tournament? We provided a first look a month ago, and of that list, South Dakota State and Dayton (if it can get in) remain legitimate Giant Killer candidates. But a lot has also happened over the past four weeks, so there are some new teams to add to the fray.
Below are some of the most dangerous Giant Killing candidates, according to our model, which is based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index and makes adjustments for box score strengths and weaknesses for every possible matchup. Teams with at least a 25 percent chance to reach the tournament and an average projected seed of at least 10.7 with matchups against teams with a projected seed of 6.3 or better were considered.
Lipscomb Bisons
Our model's five highest Giant Killer win percentage matchups by the above criteria all feature Lipscomb -- against Buffalo, Marquette, LSU, Florida State and Houston. The Bisons would have at least a 35 percent chance against all of those teams.
At this point I would hazard a guess that no team is more likely to end up on our final list of Giant Killers than Lipscomb, between our model's general fondness for the team and its 59 percent chance to reach the NCAA tournament, per BPI.
The Bisons' best asset is their defense, thanks in part to allowing opponents very few second-chance opportunities. And they might even be slightly underrated on defense by BPI because opponents are hitting free throws at a very high 74.2 percent clip against the Bisons, per KenPom.
Offensively they have weapons from both short and long range, with senior guard Garrison Mathews leading their scoring efforts from beyond the arc (40 percent from 3-point range this season) and senior forward Rob Marberry an asset in the post. Despite playing at a blazing pace, the Bisons are better in the half court on both offense and defense.
Of the five teams mentioned above, Buffalo would be the Bisons' best matchup. Should Lipscomb luck out and face the Bulls in a potential 11-6 game, it would have the edge in both 2- and 3-point shooting and would have, by our measure, a 44 percent chance to pull off the upset.
Murray State Racers
There may not be a team seeded 11th or lower that opponents want to see less than Murray State. And you know exactly why: Ja Morant.
The superstar future top-five pick makes the Racers incredibly dangerous. It's not just the high-flying acrobatic dunks, but also his off-the-charts passing that makes scouts salivate and opponents worry. Murray may trail Zion Williamson in dunk highlights, but he leads the nation in assist rate, per KenPom.
Led by Morant's abilities to score near the rim and help others to do the same, the Racers have the sixth-best field goal rate on 2-point shots in Division I. And they're coming right at you: Murray State is one of the best transition offenses in the country and one that runs the break frequently.
The Racers still have work to do to get into the tournament, however: They are the best team in the Ohio Valley, per BPI, but Belmont is a close second, so the Racers have only a 41 percent chance to win the conference tournament.
Hofstra Pride
We recently covered Justin Wright-Foreman as a potential Giant Killing star, but Hofstra's squad deserves a mention here because its offensive prowess could allow it to take down a big name in March.
BPI, which is constantly adjusting for opponent, believes that little old Hofstra has the 16th-best offense in the country. Led by Wright-Foreman, the team excels at shooting from 3-point range and is literally the best free throw shooting team in the country, per KenPom. The Pride almost never turn the ball over.
Hofstra's average projected seed in the tournament is 12.1, and potential No. 5 seed Marquette would be its best bet in part thanks to that aforementioned ability to avoid turnovers. Against the Golden Eagles our Giant Killers model would give the Pride a 29 percent chance to win.
Furman Paladins
Another name to add to our list of Giant Killer individuals: Furman senior forward Matt Rafferty. Though we often highlight players who shine on offense, Rafferty is worth lauding for the defensive statistics he is piling up.
Rafferty has the 10th-best steal rate in Division I, per KenPom, in addition to accumulating a little over a block per game. That's in addition to solid rebounding and very efficient scoring en route to over 17 points per game.
Overall, the Paladins attempt a ton of 3-pointers and rely on their pesky defense -- which forces a high rate of steals and doesn't allow opponents to get to the line -- for their success. They remain a longer shot to get into the tournament, however, with a 30 percent chance, per BPI.