Bubble Watch!

[apaladin]

Villanova suffered a bad loss today. They blew a 19 point lead in the loss to St. Johns. It was the biggest blown lead for them in 15 years. They wee up 14 with 12 to go and got outscored 37-17. SJ scored more in the last 12 minutes than they did the first 28. Need to have Villanova stay in the top 20.

[gman]

My guess is we get in the NCAA tourney only if we win the Southern Conference Tournament.

This year is different for the SoCon. My guess is we get in if we win out in the next three games, and then make it to Monday night in the SoCon tourney. It would be helpful if the championship game is against Wofford, the highest ranked NET team. All those are big ifs. If we don’t get in, it will be our own fault, not the system.

[paladinfan12]

Wofford and Furman I think both have a legit chance of getting in if they don't make the auto-bid. I think the ideal situation has Furman beating Wofford Saturday, and then both teams making the SoCon Finals. It would be hard for the committee to keep both teams out regardless of who won the conference tournament at that point.

[CharlieFU]

My guess is we get in the NCAA tourney only if we win the Southern Conference Tournament.

This year is different for the SoCon. My guess is we get in if we win out in the next three games, and then make it to Monday night in the SoCon tourney. If would be helpful if the championship game is against Wofford, the highest ranked NET team. All those are big ifs. If we don’t get in, it will be our own fault, not the system.

I will reserve judgment on the "system."

[gman]

Bracketology. Wofford an 8 seed. Furman still on the bubble. Check out this article from USA TODAY:

NCAA tournament bracketology: Which No. 2 seeds could steal No. 1 seed from Gonzaga?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 903151002/

[fufanatic]

Bracketology. Wofford an 8 seed. Furman still on the bubble. Check out this article from USA TODAY:

NCAA tournament bracketology: Which No. 2 seeds could steal No. 1 seed from Gonzaga?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 903151002/

As much as I hope it doesn't happen because I want Furman in the tourney, the SoCon champion getting an 8 seed would be unheard of and amazing. Gives the league a much more realistic chance of grabbing a win and extra money from the NCAA. The predicted 8-seed also tells me that if Wofford lost in the finals, they would have a great chance at an at-large.

[furpop16]

Bleacher Report Bracketology: #6 Maryland vs. #11 Furman (at large) in the South Region

Noteworthy Riser: Furman Paladins (New to the Field)
Hey, remember these guys? The Paladins started the season 12-0 with an incredible road win over Villanova and a looked-better-at-the-time road win over Loyola-Chicago, making it into the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history.

They dropped off the radar after losses in five of the next nine games following that hot start, but they are back thanks to six consecutive wins by a double-digit margin.

Two weeks ago, Furman blew out a good East Tennessee State team by 30 to get back into the bubble picture. This past week, the Paladins beat UNC Greensboro (projected for an at-large bid last week) by 10 points before destroying VMI. Big man Matt Rafferty has quietly been one of the most valuable players in the country.

There's still work to be done, though. Furman hosts Wofford on Saturday before a road game against Samford the following Thursday. Both of those teams beat the Paladins in January, and they must avenge at least one of those losses to have a chance for an at-large bid.

Regardless of how this ends, it's pretty cool that we're into the second half of February and still legitimately talking about multiple at-large candidates from the Southern Conference.

FWIW they also have #7 Spartanburg Prep vs. #11 Syracuse in the Midwest Region.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/282 ... -68#slide4

[DungeonRealm]

Bleacher Report Bracketology: #6 Maryland vs. #11 Furman (at large) in the South Region

Noteworthy Riser: Furman Paladins (New to the Field)
Hey, remember these guys? The Paladins started the season 12-0 with an incredible road win over Villanova and a looked-better-at-the-time road win over Loyola-Chicago, making it into the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history.

They dropped off the radar after losses in five of the next nine games following that hot start, but they are back thanks to six consecutive wins by a double-digit margin.

Two weeks ago, Furman blew out a good East Tennessee State team by 30 to get back into the bubble picture. This past week, the Paladins beat UNC Greensboro (projected for an at-large bid last week) by 10 points before destroying VMI. Big man Matt Rafferty has quietly been one of the most valuable players in the country.

There's still work to be done, though. Furman hosts Wofford on Saturday before a road game against Samford the following Thursday. Both of those teams beat the Paladins in January, and they must avenge at least one of those losses to have a chance for an at-large bid.

Regardless of how this ends, it's pretty cool that we're into the second half of February and still legitimately talking about multiple at-large candidates from the Southern Conference.

FWIW they also have #7 Spartanburg Prep vs. #11 Syracuse in the Midwest Region.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/282 ... -68#slide4

Only way we get consideration is by winning at least our next 4 games if not 5.
Otherwise it will be either win the tourney for NCAA's or get an NIT bid which would also be a step forward.

[FUpaladin08]

Bracketology. Wofford an 8 seed. Furman still on the bubble. Check out this article from USA TODAY:

NCAA tournament bracketology: Which No. 2 seeds could steal No. 1 seed from Gonzaga?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 903151002/

Unfortunately it appears to be “what have you done for me lately.” Furman climbed into the Top 25 by staying undefeated. I feel Wofford’s climb is due to their current win streak. I doubt anyone will be giving Wofford anything close to an 8 seed WHEN Furman wins this Saturday. Best case would be more like a 12 seed, which is More in line with a good team from the SoCon.

[Paul C]

I think that history is less relevant this season than ever. The SoCon is a better conference than it has ever been, and that's being recognized by the media....and is a reasonable indicator of how the committee will lean.

For arguments sake, I am going to chart the Ken Pom power rating of the SoCon Champion and the next highest team, along with NCAA Tourney seed that team got going back a few years...and the Ranking of the SoCon. I'm well aware Ken Pom is not the NET, but in most cases it's close so here you go, for perspective.....

Today - Woff #28, FU #52, ETSU #68, UNCG #90, SoCon #10

2018 - UNCG #82 and 13 seed (next highest was ETSU at #93). SoCon #22
2017 - ETSU #67 and 13 seed (next highest was Furman at #106). SoCon #14
2016 - Chatt #109 and 12 seed (next highest was ETSU at #153). SoCon #19
2015 - Woffy #96 and 12 seed (next highest was Chatt at #166). SoCon #25
2014 - Woffy #192 and 15 seed (highest ranking was Davidson at #123 and went to NIT). SoCon #30
2013 - Davidson #66 and 14 seed (next highest was CoC at #153). SoCon #28
2012 - Davidson #71 and 13 seed (next highest was CoC at #160). SoCon # 26
2011 - Wofford #84 and 14 seed (highest ranking was CoC at #70 and went to NIT). SoCon #20
2010 - Wofford # 82 and 13 seed (next highest was App St at #109). SoCon #19
2009 - Chatt #213 and 16 seed (Davidson finished ranked #64 and 26-7 and didn't get at large bid but SoCon was 25th ranked conference that year with only 3 teams in the top 200)

The conclusion over the past 8-9 years is that when the highest rated team in the SoCon wins the tourney, we've improved our seeding by one spot.....from 14-13 in '10-'13 to 13-12 in '15-'18.....but in 15-18 the average rank of the SoCon was 20th...now we are 10th....

[apaladin]

I was listening to the ACC beat writer from Greensboro on ESPN Upstate tonight and he said emphatically the SoCon is a 2 bid league this year. He said if the SoCon tourney finals feature WC, FU or UNCG both teams get in. WC is almost a sure bet for an at-large. I will believe the SoCon gets 2 teams in when I see it. The 13-14 loss teams in power conferences get these bids.

[Paul C]

I’m with you in that I will believe it when I see it as well.

Although this year is set up about as good as it can ever be.

[FUpaladin08]

Another publication with FU as last four in.

“Just look at Furman (22-5), which spent three weeks this season in the AP Top 25 Poll, and could have at least 25 wins on Selection Sunday. The Paladins were among the Last Four In in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections and as of Tuesday afternoon, they have eight more wins than Florida (14-11), which is also in the Last Four In.”

https://watchstadium.com/news/examining ... 2-19-2019/

None of it matters without two wins to finish the regular season. Let’s beat Woffy!

[apaladin]

Good to see most of these sites have at least have FU on the bubble but FU is nowhere to be found on Joe Lunardi's board. Not even a bubble team. Yet he has Clempson (15-11)solidly in(they lost their 3rd in a row tonight). CU has ONE decent win and they are 5-8 in the ACC and four of those 5 wins were GT(2), Wake and Pitt. They have not done near enough to get in the tourney.

[Paul C]

If it doesn’t work out that we get an NCAA bid, playing Clemson in the NIT would be a nice consolation prize.