Our SoCon Tourney Road to the Championship

[edwards555]

The Athletic today (Mon) predicts Furman to win the tournament and names Miller as Player of the Year.

[Furmanoid]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

[apaladin]

ESPN “experts” picked the winners of all 31 conference tournaments.
2 picked Furman including Lunardi and 2 picked UNCG.

[gofurman]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

that makes sense - barring absolute domination you would always take the 'field... Furman / Woff / UNCG / Chatt / ETSU etc so many have a realistic chance to win it all. In no order it is probably 15 / 15 / 20 / 10/ 10 / 10 / 10/ 5/ 5 to win it all. That probably isn't the right number of teams but you get my pt. You would Always take "the field" over any one team. Say WOff or UNCG is top chance to win it.. I would give them each a 20/25% at best to win it - too much parity

[Furmanoid]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

that makes sense - barring absolute domination you would always take the 'field... Furman / Woff / UNCG / Chatt / ETSU etc so many have a realistic chance to win it all. In no order it is probably 15 / 15 / 20 / 10/ 10 / 10 / 10/ 5/ 5 to win it all. That probably isn't the right number of teams but you get my pt. You would Always take "the field" over any one team. Say WOff or UNCG is top chance to win it.. I would give them each a 20/25% at best to win it - too much parity

I figured we had like a 25% chance, but I was afraid to say that.

[Affirm]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

that makes sense - barring absolute domination you would always take the 'field... Furman / Woff / UNCG / Chatt / ETSU etc so many have a realistic chance to win it all. In no order it is probably 15 / 15 / 20 / 10/ 10 / 10 / 10/ 5/ 5 to win it all. That probably isn't the right number of teams but you get my pt. You would Always take "the field" over any one team. Say WOff or UNCG is top chance to win it.. I would give them each a 20/25% at best to win it - too much parity

I figured we had like a 25% chance, but I was afraid to say that.

Apparently, what is being said here is that Furman's chance is maybe 15%.
Over the years of 1981-2020 (40 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was ZERO. "ZERO and 40". Is there someone on here who could please tell me what is the statistical probability of that happening ZERO times out of 40, if random? I realize it is not random and is influenced by resources of each school, but overall, I am not convinced that Furman's resources compared to each of the other teams' resources have been that much lower (nor higher).
Also, over the years of 1971-1980 (10 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was SIX. "SIX and 4." What is the statistical probability of SIX out of 10, if random?
The following probably does not matter, but here is some additional information:

• during 1971 - 1980, Furman won the regular season 4 times, each in years that Furman won the conference tournament also; during 1981-2020, Furman won the regular season 2 times

[Sad Din]

CBS sports has UNCG playing CU in 1st round. Others have SoCon going against Va Tec (Mike Youngs team). Both of those would be amazing for the Dins

[apaladin]

CBS sports has UNCG playing CU in 1st round. Others have SoCon going against Va Tec (Mike Youngs team). Both of those would be amazing for the Dins

Clempson as a #4 is a joke. Lunardi has them as a 6 which is still too high.

[FurmAlum]

That can work as a psychological advantage for us. Time to dish out some payback to VMI for canceling and time to even the score with Woffy.

[Roundball]

I predict we will show up, play hard, and have a great chance to win the SoCon tournament. I feel good about our chances.

[Davemeister]

I hope you are right.

[Flagman]

Apparently, no tickets available to the tournament for the general public.

[Roundball]

Apparently, no tickets available to the tournament for the general public.

Limited to 125 per team. I guess the easiest thing to do is to limit those to family members and the top supporters. I understand that.

[Furmanoid]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

that makes sense - barring absolute domination you would always take the 'field... Furman / Woff / UNCG / Chatt / ETSU etc so many have a realistic chance to win it all. In no order it is probably 15 / 15 / 20 / 10/ 10 / 10 / 10/ 5/ 5 to win it all. That probably isn't the right number of teams but you get my pt. You would Always take "the field" over any one team. Say WOff or UNCG is top chance to win it.. I would give them each a 20/25% at best to win it - too much parity

I figured we had like a 25% chance, but I was afraid to say that.

Apparently, what is being said here is that Furman's chance is maybe 15%.
Over the years of 1981-2020 (40 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was ZERO. "ZERO and 40". Is there someone on here who could please tell me what is the statistical probability of that happening ZERO times out of 40, if random? I realize it is not random and is influenced by resources of each school, but overall, I am not convinced that Furman's resources compared to each of the other teams' resources have been that much lower (nor higher).
Also, over the years of 1971-1980 (10 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was SIX. "SIX and 4." What is the statistical probability of SIX out of 10, if random?
The following probably does not matter, but here is some additional information:

• during 1971 - 1980, Furman won the regular season 4 times, each in years that Furman won the conference tournament also; during 1981-2020, Furman won the regular season 2 times

Back in the day we had some dominant teams that could really only be challenged by maybe one other SoCon team. Few teams had any chance at all of beating us. So we probably had about a 70-80% chance. It was way non random. This year everybody seems to be able to lose to everybody so it’s more random. But I think we have a slightly better roster than anybody else, so I’d still say we have more like a 25% hope.

[Sad Din]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

that makes sense - barring absolute domination you would always take the 'field... Furman / Woff / UNCG / Chatt / ETSU etc so many have a realistic chance to win it all. In no order it is probably 15 / 15 / 20 / 10/ 10 / 10 / 10/ 5/ 5 to win it all. That probably isn't the right number of teams but you get my pt. You would Always take "the field" over any one team. Say WOff or UNCG is top chance to win it.. I would give them each a 20/25% at best to win it - too much parity

I figured we had like a 25% chance, but I was afraid to say that.

Apparently, what is being said here is that Furman's chance is maybe 15%.
Over the years of 1981-2020 (40 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was ZERO. "ZERO and 40". Is there someone on here who could please tell me what is the statistical probability of that happening ZERO times out of 40, if random? I realize it is not random and is influenced by resources of each school, but overall, I am not convinced that Furman's resources compared to each of the other teams' resources have been that much lower (nor higher).
Also, over the years of 1971-1980 (10 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was SIX. "SIX and 4." What is the statistical probability of SIX out of 10, if random?
The following probably does not matter, but here is some additional information:

• during 1971 - 1980, Furman won the regular season 4 times, each in years that Furman won the conference tournament also; during 1981-2020, Furman won the regular season 2 times

Back in the day we had some dominant teams that could really only be challenged by maybe one other SoCon team. Few teams had any chance at all of beating us. So we probably had about a 70-80% chance. It was way non random. This year everybody seems to be able to lose to everybody so it’s more random. But I think we have a slightly better roster than anybody else, so I’d still say we have more like a 25% hope.

Probably best chance in years to get to the tourney and some folks want to rehash the last 40 years?

Thats a good topic if Dins dont make it... but right now... full steam ahead... damn the torpedoes!