Picking the SoCon 11/10

[Paul C]

Mercer +6 at Chattanooga (o/u 46.5)

Depends on the health of Mercer's QB and RB. If Mercer plays the same guys as last week, it's hard to see a scenario where Chattanooga, playing at home, won't cover, although the safer bet here might be the under. I can see this game going to UT-C by a score in the 24-17 range.

Furman -11 at VMI (o/u 65)

Furman's multiple offense and strong rushing attack tends to do well against poor/mediocre defenses, and VMI is probably the worst defense in the SoCon. Furman's best offensive outing of the year was 44 points and 472 yards against the other bad D in the SoCon (WCU) and I can see similar #'s here. VMI can put up some points and yards, however coming off a game vs D2 Tusculum where they only managed 20 pts and 345 yards they need to show a little more spark. Expect them to probably play more aggressively this week and put up similar production vs a better D. That being said, I'd feel good taking Furman -11. If I had to play the o/u I'd probably go with the under as I can see the Furman D getting to Udinski enough to keep him out of rhythm. Feels like a 42-21 kind of game in favor of the Paladins.

Samford -11.5 at Citadel (o/u 60)

Samford will score. Alot. And Citadel can move the ball reasonably well, while the Samford D can be run on, as Furman and Wofford has shown....just not enough to outscore the potent Samford air attack. This feels like a solid double digit win for the Alabama Bulldogs. Let's say something like 38-17, so take Samford and give the 11.5.

Wofford -14.5 at Western Carolina (o/u 70)

One thing is for sure in this game, Wofford will run all over Western's non-existent run defense. In fact, Citadel, an inferior offense to Wofford, went for 421 on the ground last week and only attempted one pass. Now, this is the second week in a row WCU will face an option team so maybe that helps a little but I'm thinking Wofford goes for 500 yards and 40+ points. On the other hand, can the Wofford D slow down Tyrie Adams and the WCU air attack? They sure didn't slow down the other potent SoCon passing game last week, as Samford passed for 400 yards against the Wofford secondary. A shootout between 2 contrasting styles is on the menu in Cullowhee but I see Wofford winning this one something like 42-31. Take WCU and give the 14.5 but maybe the better play is the over, even at 70.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer +6 at Chattanooga (o/u 46.5)

Depends on the health of Mercer's QB and RB. If Mercer plays the same guys as last week, it's hard to see a scenario where Chattanooga, playing at home, won't cover, although the safer bet here might be the under. I can see this game going to UT-C by a score in the 24-17 range.

Furman -11 at VMI (o/u 65)

Furman's multiple offense and strong rushing attack tends to do well against poor/mediocre defenses, and VMI is probably the worst defense in the SoCon. Furman's best offensive outing of the year was 44 points and 472 yards against the other bad D in the SoCon (WCU) and I can see similar #'s here. VMI can put up some points and yards, however coming off a game vs D2 Tusculum where they only managed 20 pts and 345 yards they need to show a little more spark. Expect them to probably play more aggressively this week and put up similar production vs a better D. That being said, I'd feel good taking Furman -11. If I had to play the o/u I'd probably go with the under as I can see the Furman D getting to Udinski enough to keep him out of rhythm. Feels like a 42-21 kind of game in favor of the Paladins.

Samford -11.5 at Citadel (o/u 60)

Samford will score. Alot. And Citadel can move the ball reasonably well, while the Samford D can be run on, as Furman and Wofford has shown....just not enough to outscore the potent Samford air attack. This feels like a solid double digit win for the Alabama Bulldogs. Let's say something like 38-17, so take Samford and give the 11.5.

Wofford -14.5 at Western Carolina (o/u 70)

One thing is for sure in this game, Wofford will run all over Western's non-existent run defense. In fact, Citadel, an inferior offense to Wofford, went for 421 on the ground last week and only attempted one pass. Now, this is the second week in a row WCU will face an option team so maybe that helps a little but I'm thinking Wofford goes for 500 yards and 40+ points. On the other hand, can the Wofford D slow down Tyrie Adams and the WCU air attack? They sure didn't slow down the other potent SoCon passing game last week, as Samford passed for 400 yards against the Wofford secondary. A shootout between 2 contrasting styles is on the menu in Cullowhee but I see Wofford winning this one something like 42-31. Take WCU and give the 14.5 but maybe the better play is the over, even at 70.

Hate to disagree with the Greek Swami, but I think the Mercer @ Chatt outcome hinges on Mercer’s Defense rather than the injuries to those 2 critical starters.

“Frosty” showed, last week, he can zing the rock and we already knew Devezin can pound it. Frosty also showed he ain’t skeered neither. Back to the D in a minute, but getting Mitchell (who has played well in Chatt in the past) back would be great as a pass catching threat out of the backfield or an occasional change-up, but Devezin will be shouldering (pun intended) the load this Saturday as well. And, I’d rather have a slingin’ it Frosty than a hobbled Riley at QB. Boot on 1 Sat. doesn’t usually mean a high level of mobility the following Saturday. The injury that I think will, potentially, hurt the Bears the most is WR Durden leaving the ETSU game with a concussion. He’s a DO-EVERYTHING kid and the Bears will miss his game-changing ability if he’s unable to play against the Mocs.

If Mercer’s D plays up to their ability and can get 2+ takeaways, they can contain the Mocs less-than-flashy Offense. If not, it will be the Mocs by a lot more than 6 points.

All that said, the Under is probably the best play on this game...as you said.