Conference Realignment

[The Jackal]

I may have missed this posted elsewhere, but there were some rumblings this week that the Atlantic Sun, as part of an aggress (and, frankly, confusing) expansion project are starting a 60 day negotiating period with the idea of targeting three schools - Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas, and Eastern Kentucky.

https://jsuchanticleer.com/2020/11/20/r ... expansion/

The ASUN does not currently sponsor football. They do have a number of member schools that play football as part of other conferences (North Alabama, Kennesaw State, Stetson). Liberty is also a member, but is an FBS independent.

If that happens, I doubt there will be a 5 team football league. So, either the new ASUN football league would join Liberty in the FBS or keep adding teams at the FCS level.

I think the SoCon needs to be on guard here. Would this aggressive expansion include picking off SoCon schools? Should the SoCon maybe look to pick up left over teams out of the Big South or OVC looking for stability?

[FUBeAR]

I may have missed this posted elsewhere, but there were some rumblings this week that the Atlantic Sun, as part of an aggress (and, frankly, confusing) expansion project are starting a 60 day negotiating period with the idea of targeting three schools - Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas, and Eastern Kentucky.

https://jsuchanticleer.com/2020/11/20/r ... expansion/

The ASUN does not currently sponsor football. They do have a number of member schools that play football as part of other conferences (North Alabama, Kennesaw State, Stetson). Liberty is also a member, but is an FBS independent.

If that happens, I doubt there will be a 5 team football league. So, either the new ASUN football league would join Liberty in the FBS or keep adding teams at the FCS level.

I think the SoCon needs to be on guard here. Would this aggressive expansion include picking off SoCon schools? Should the SoCon maybe look to pick up left over teams out of the Big South or OVC looking for stability?

Would see Chatt & ETSU as prime targets for this confederation. SoCon Commish needs to be on the ball & have a battle plan with a number of different retention / pursuit strategies in place.

[Hope that’s not too much of a conspiracy theory to post here]

[apaladin]

I may have missed this posted elsewhere, but there were some rumblings this week that the Atlantic Sun, as part of an aggress (and, frankly, confusing) expansion project are starting a 60 day negotiating period with the idea of targeting three schools - Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas, and Eastern Kentucky.

https://jsuchanticleer.com/2020/11/20/r ... expansion/

The ASUN does not currently sponsor football. They do have a number of member schools that play football as part of other conferences (North Alabama, Kennesaw State, Stetson). Liberty is also a member, but is an FBS independent.

If that happens, I doubt there will be a 5 team football league. So, either the new ASUN football league would join Liberty in the FBS or keep adding teams at the FCS level.

I think the SoCon needs to be on guard here. Would this aggressive expansion include picking off SoCon schools? Should the SoCon maybe look to pick up left over teams out of the Big South or OVC looking for stability?

Would see Chatt & ETSU as prime targets for this confederation. SoCon Commish needs to be on the ball & have a battle plan with a number of different retention / pursuit strategies in place.

[Hope that’s not too much of a conspiracy theory to post here]

SoCon commish on the ball, now you have to admit that is funny.

[youwouldno]

I have a hard time seeing UTC and/or ETSU jumping to a bad basketball conference. It's not clear to me what the upside would be.

[The Jackal]

I have a hard time seeing UTC and/or ETSU jumping to a bad basketball conference. It's not clear to me what the upside would be.

Basketball is always a carrot to consider, however the grand scheme for the ASUN is to create a 20 team conference under a different moniker.

The ASUN isn't void of basketball. They probably have more notable recent national success in the NCAA tournament than the SoCon. When Mercer beat Duke it was an ASUN member. Florida Gulf Coast had a nice run to the Sweet 16 a year prior. Liberty won a tournament game a few years after that.

I don't think they are as good as the SoCon in basketball top to bottom, but the conference isn't a black hole or anything.

[The Jackal]

I may have missed this posted elsewhere, but there were some rumblings this week that the Atlantic Sun, as part of an aggress (and, frankly, confusing) expansion project are starting a 60 day negotiating period with the idea of targeting three schools - Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas, and Eastern Kentucky.

https://jsuchanticleer.com/2020/11/20/r ... expansion/

The ASUN does not currently sponsor football. They do have a number of member schools that play football as part of other conferences (North Alabama, Kennesaw State, Stetson). Liberty is also a member, but is an FBS independent.

If that happens, I doubt there will be a 5 team football league. So, either the new ASUN football league would join Liberty in the FBS or keep adding teams at the FCS level.

I think the SoCon needs to be on guard here. Would this aggressive expansion include picking off SoCon schools? Should the SoCon maybe look to pick up left over teams out of the Big South or OVC looking for stability?

Would see Chatt & ETSU as prime targets for this confederation. SoCon Commish needs to be on the ball & have a battle plan with a number of different retention / pursuit strategies in place.

[Hope that’s not too much of a conspiracy theory to post here]

I occasionally hear rumors of UTC's discontent. I don't know if they amount to anything more than rumor. My guess is UTC, like App State and Georgia Southern, may be dissatisfied with being a large state school in a conference where much of the influence runs through smaller private institutions.

While the ASUN announced this move in January, this may not be a great time to look at expansion. It may not be wise to try and do something unique and aggressive when financial stability appears to very much be in issue.

[youwouldno]

I have a hard time seeing UTC and/or ETSU jumping to a bad basketball conference. It's not clear to me what the upside would be.

Basketball is always a carrot to consider, however the grand scheme for the ASUN is to create a 20 team conference under a different moniker.

The ASUN isn't void of basketball. They probably have more notable recent national success in the NCAA tournament than the SoCon. When Mercer beat Duke it was an ASUN member. Florida Gulf Coast had a nice run to the Sweet 16 a year prior. Liberty won a tournament game a few years after that.

I don't think they are as good as the SoCon in basketball top to bottom, but the conference isn't a black hole or anything.

Well it's one of the weakest basketball conferences in D-I and has been for 25+ years . . . in 2018 it was the weakest non-HBCU conference in D-I. I'm not sure how low a conference would have to go for you to consider it legitimately bad.

In any case, having now read a couple of articles, the actual goal is apparently not to create a 20-team conference - that's just one step along the way. The 20-team conference would exist temporarily as, essentially, a way around NCAA restrictions on new conferences. The rules seem to require that a new conference consist of programs that have already been members of the same conference for a period of time.

In other words, the rules make it easier to split than to create something new. Under this approach, after several years of playing as a 20-team conference, they would then split into two 10-team conferences, each with an NCAA basketball auto-bid. One of the two, apparently known as the "United Athletic Conference," would sponsor FCS football (though not all of its members would - but enough for FCS auto-bid). The ASUN would continue as a non-football conference.

The motivation for the moves vary somewhat. The ASUN has 9 basketball members but 3 play scholarship football (2 FCS, 1 FBS), which is a major source of instability because the minimum number of schools for an auto-bid is 7. So the ASUN is essentially acting as the surrogate mother of a new FCS football conference in the hopes of winding up with a 10-member ASUN with no scholarship football.

The football angle is a little harder to understand. Jacksonville St, EKU, and Central Arkansas are all on the geographic periphery of their existing conferences. But for EKU and UCA, I'm not understanding how the "UAC" footprint would be a guaranteed upgrade - it seems like they could easily be on the periphery of the "UAC" footprint as well. I assume there are other cost-cutting factors at work . . . presumably the "UAC" structure/rules would also save money in other ways.

From a SoCon perspective . . . the question is whether any members would prefer to be in the "UAC" (I guess UNC-G could theoretically be an ASUN target but it doesn't make much sense). The projected "UAC" members at this point would be:

Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State
Central Arkansas
North Alabama
Kennesaw State
*Maybe Liberty (as a non-FCS football UAC member)

Only one more would be required for an FCS auto-bid. Samford and Mercer would fit well geographically but not from an overall profile standpoint. It would also be a pretty good geographic fit for UTC, if they want to prioritize FCS football over basketball. I don't see any other realistic targets.

The whole scheme has a ways to go, and could go off the rails very easily.

[The Jackal]

I have a hard time seeing UTC and/or ETSU jumping to a bad basketball conference. It's not clear to me what the upside would be.

Basketball is always a carrot to consider, however the grand scheme for the ASUN is to create a 20 team conference under a different moniker.

The ASUN isn't void of basketball. They probably have more notable recent national success in the NCAA tournament than the SoCon. When Mercer beat Duke it was an ASUN member. Florida Gulf Coast had a nice run to the Sweet 16 a year prior. Liberty won a tournament game a few years after that.

I don't think they are as good as the SoCon in basketball top to bottom, but the conference isn't a black hole or anything.

Well it's one of the weakest basketball conferences in D-I and has been for 25+ years . . . in 2018 it was the weakest non-HBCU conference in D-I. I'm not sure how low a conference would have to go for you to consider it legitimately bad.

In any case, having now read a couple of articles, the actual goal is apparently not to create a 20-team conference - that's just one step along the way. The 20-team conference would exist temporarily as, essentially, a way around NCAA restrictions on new conferences. The rules seem to require that a new conference consist of programs that have already been members of the same conference for a period of time.

In other words, the rules make it easier to split than to create something new. Under this approach, after several years of playing as a 20-team conference, they would then split into two 10-team conferences, each with an NCAA basketball auto-bid. One of the two, apparently known as the "United Athletic Conference," would sponsor FCS football (though not all of its members would - but enough for FCS auto-bid). The ASUN would continue as a non-football conference.

The motivation for the moves vary somewhat. The ASUN has 9 basketball members but 3 play scholarship football (2 FCS, 1 FBS), which is a major source of instability because the minimum number of schools for an auto-bid is 7. So the ASUN is essentially acting as the surrogate mother of a new FCS football conference in the hopes of winding up with a 10-member ASUN with no scholarship football.

The football angle is a little harder to understand. Jacksonville St, EKU, and Central Arkansas are all on the geographic periphery of their existing conferences. But for EKU and UCA, I'm not understanding how the "UAC" footprint would be a guaranteed upgrade - it seems like they could easily be on the periphery of the "UAC" footprint as well. I assume there are other cost-cutting factors at work . . . presumably the "UAC" structure/rules would also save money in other ways.

From a SoCon perspective . . . the question is whether any members would prefer to be in the "UAC" (I guess UNC-G could theoretically be an ASUN target but it doesn't make much sense). The projected "UAC" members at this point would be:

Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State
Central Arkansas
North Alabama
Kennesaw State
*Maybe Liberty (as a non-FCS football UAC member)

Only one more would be required for an FCS auto-bid. Samford and Mercer would fit well geographically but not from an overall profile standpoint. It would also be a pretty good geographic fit for UTC, if they want to prioritize FCS football over basketball. I don't see any other realistic targets.

The whole scheme has a ways to go, and could go off the rails very easily.

That's not what I said.

I said the ASUN has more recent national success than the SoCon, which is true. I believe the SoCon has one tournament win since Davidson's run in 2008 - Wofford's upset over Seton Hall in 2019. Just since 2013, the ASUN has at least 5 tournament wins.

Using metrics, the ASun is an inferior basketball conference to the SoCon. However, both the SoCon and ASun are one bid leagues and the ASun has done a lot more work in the tournament than the SoCon has. Florida Gulf Coast has nearly as many tournament wins in the last six years than Furman has had appearances since the 1970s.

[youwouldno]

That's not what I said.

I said the ASUN has more recent national success than the SoCon, which is true. I believe the SoCon has one tournament win since Davidson's run in 2008 - Wofford's upset over Seton Hall in 2019. Just since 2013, the ASUN has at least 5 tournament wins.

Using metrics, the ASun is an inferior basketball conference to the SoCon. However, both the SoCon and ASun are one bid leagues and the ASun has done a lot more work in the tournament than the SoCon has. Florida Gulf Coast has nearly as many tournament wins in the last six years than Furman has had appearances since the 1970s.

That's fine, but no one cares. Wins in the past produce no money. Wins in the future do produce money. Since the SoCon is a much stronger basketball conference than the ASUN, the SoCon projects to be more successful in the post-season on a prospective basis, which is the only thing that actually matters.

Every program in the country would recognize going from the SoCon to ASUN as a huge downgrade in basketball. It could make sense for other reasons in some cases, but that's the reality, and that was the point of my original comment.