Season Ending Thoughts

[The Jackal]

Football team loses football game. Everyone loses their minds.

CCH has this team trending up. First time we have won 8 regular season games since like 2006. Took 2 FBS teams to the brink.

Had a couple disappointing losses, not least the last game.

But goodness folks. Rebuilding a program that had fallen as far as ours has doesn’t happen overnight.

I am excited for 2020 and beyond. And one game isn’t going to change that.

Let’s go Dins!

No one seems to bother to notice that this is the first time Furman has won 8 games in a regular season since 2006.

[Bootie]

Football team loses football game. Everyone loses their minds.

CCH has this team trending up. First time we have won 8 regular season games since like 2006. Took 2 FBS teams to the brink.

Had a couple disappointing losses, not least the last game.

But goodness folks. Rebuilding a program that had fallen as far as ours has doesn’t happen overnight.

I am excited for 2020 and beyond. And one game isn’t going to change that.

Let’s go Dins!

No one seems to bother to notice that this is the first time Furman has won 8 games in a regular season since 2006.

For the record, I notice. I simply ask the questions of those who do not in order to discover their full level of insanity

I trust CCH and his ability to run the program. Glad he is at the helm.

[youwouldno]

Ending 2018 ranked #22 in Massey and ending 2019 ranked ~#43 is an interesting definition of "trending up."

[Bootie]

Ending 2018 ranked #22 in Massey and ending 2019 ranked ~#43 is an interesting definition of "trending up."

Hard to analyze any "trend" when you only go back 1 season.

[youwouldno]

Hard to analyze any "trend" when you only go back 1 season.

How about the 21st century to date?

#2
#11
#31
#12
#9
#23
#20
#31
#16
#29
#31
#50
#31
#68
#52
#48
#30
#22
#43

So, out of the 19 seasons in the 21st century, Hendrix has recorded finishes that ranked 10th, 7th, and 15th. Of course, his 2 best seasons of out 3 were mostly with the prior staff's players. You have to cherry pick very carefully to create an "upward trend" out of the above.

[purplehorse]

Curious to know what kind of changes you think are necessary to get to national relevance.

As I've said, I'm not sure it's possible. It would actually be less discouraging if the issue was Hendrix just not having a clue. But I think he's a solid coach.

The one area where I think Hendrix clearly has erred is in not being more aggressive in finding transfers, and maybe in doing more to encourage guys to move on who aren't contributing. It has not been Furman's way of doing things, but the old way clearly is no longer viable. Going into this season with Grainger and Sisson as the QBs was clearly an error, which many (myself included) suspected before the season.

Generally speaking, it is very difficult for a team to maintain a level of performance far above the level of its conference, at least in the major sports. Yet, at this point that's what is required for any SoCon football team to be nationally relevant. It seems like Hendrix might not realize (or have realized) just how weak the conference has become.

True it may be rare but Clemson is doing it.

[Paladin91]

Football team loses football game. Everyone loses their minds.

CCH has this team trending up. First time we have won 8 regular season games since like 2006. Took 2 FBS teams to the brink.

Had a couple disappointing losses, not least the last game.

But goodness folks. Rebuilding a program that had fallen as far as ours has doesn’t happen overnight.

I am excited for 2020 and beyond. And one game isn’t going to change that.

Let’s go Dins!

No one seems to bother to notice that this is the first time Furman has won 8 games in a regular season since 2006.

8 wins in one season, with one of those against perennial powerhouse Point Univ. Oh my! (Applause) I'm not sure whether that game against Point helped us any, other than perhaps securing a playoff spot we probably didn't deserve.

[dins13]

Four years ago we were 3-8. This year we were 8-5. I like 8-5 better than 3-8. I like higher win totals better than lower win totals. Higher win totals are good. Lower win totals are bad. This is the first time since 2006 that we reached this win total in the regular season. That is good. Not bad. I am not content with 8-5. I want more. I want conference titles. I want deep playoff runs. I want national titles. I want consistent greatness. It doesn't happen overnight, though. We won 8 games in the regular season for the first time since 2006, three years after going 3-8. That's a good step in the right direction. Now let's take the next step in 2020.

Let's go 'Dins!

(Also, I'm a young alum. I'm not going anywhere. I tailgate with 5 other young alumni every week. There is hope for young alumni. Might be a small hope, I mean I realize how small the crowds are and how alarmingly tiny the student sections are. But there is hope. Student sections at basketball games didn't look like they do now when I was there. Winning helps things like attendance. And young alumni.)

Aiight I’m checking out. I like CCH. Solid season, good step in the right direction. I want more next year. I’ll leave y’all to it. Go Dins.

[Bootie]

Hard to analyze any "trend" when you only go back 1 season.

How about the 21st century to date?

#2
#11
#31
#12
#9
#23
#20
#31
#16
#29
#31
#50
#31
#68
#52
#48
#30
#22
#43

So, out of the 19 seasons in the 21st century, Hendrix has recorded finishes that ranked 9th, 6th, and 14th. Of course, his 2 best seasons of out 3 were mostly with the prior staff's players. You have to cherry pick very carefully to create an "upward trend" out of the above.

2009: 6-5
2010: 5-6
2011: 6-5
2012: 3-8
2013: 8-6 *Playoffs 2nd round
2014: 3-9
2015: 4-7
2016: 3-8
2017: 8-5 *Playoffs 2nd round
2018: 6-4
2019: 8-5 *Playoffs 1st round

I see a program that was nationally relevant in the 80s, struggled since with some success here and there, but now in 3 seasons under CCH has seen us compete again for conference championships and make 2 playoff appearances. I'll take that. We see exactly what we want to see... I'm an optimist and see an upward trend.

[purplehorse]

A few Wofford folks thought KS controlled both sides of the LOS and that the 2nd string QB was the quickest player on the field and that KS had better athletes. That was the feeling I got against both Wofford and AP-that they had better athletes. I am sure other factors often come into play and we all know that the team with better athletes does not always win. I doubt Citadel has better athletes than us.

[youwouldno]

I see a program that was nationally relevant in the 80s, struggled since with some success here and there, but now in 3 seasons under CCH has seen us compete again for conference championships and make 2 playoff appearances. I'll take that. We see exactly what we want to see... I'm an optimist and see an upward trend.

It's not what I "want to see." It's what the objective numbers say. The reality is that Furman's 2019 team was right around #30 out of 38 Furman seasons at the FCS level. If you're happy beating up on Point, that's great. All 38 of those teams would have smoked Point.

If you're happy being #43 in FCS, then I expect you will continue to be happy. Nothing wrong with that. For myself, it means that the most exciting aspect of FCS - the playoffs - are basically irrelevant, because even if Furman sneaks in, there is literally zero chance of a deep run.

For fans that don't care about being competitive in the playoffs, I agree, all is well.

[The Jackal]

I see a program that was nationally relevant in the 80s, struggled since with some success here and there, but now in 3 seasons under CCH has seen us compete again for conference championships and make 2 playoff appearances. I'll take that. We see exactly what we want to see... I'm an optimist and see an upward trend.

It's not what I "want to see." It's what the objective numbers say. The reality is that Furman's 2019 team was right around #30 out of 38 Furman seasons at the FCS level. If you're happy beating up on Point, that's great. All 38 of those teams would have smoked Point.

If you're happy being #43 in FCS, then I expect you will continue to be happy. Nothing wrong with that. For myself, it means that the most exciting aspect of FCS - the playoffs - are basically irrelevant, because even if Furman sneaks in, there is literally zero chance of a deep run.

For fans that don't care about being competitive in the playoffs, I agree, all is well.

Data is a tool, not a panacea.

There are things baked into those numbers that Furman has little control over (such as the strength of our conference schedule).

[youwouldno]

Data is a tool, not a panacea.

There are things baked into those numbers that Furman has little control over (such as the strength of our conference schedule).

Weak opponents don't hurt your ranking, so long as you beat them handily. At one point during the season, Furman's computer rankings were pretty good.

Furman's ranking dropped because the Paladins got buried by all 3 decent FCS opponents that they played. Citadel, Wofford, and APSU are all borderline top 25 teams at best, so obviously Furman was not at that borderline top 25 level. If anything, #43 is probably overstating things, because the better outcomes happened early in the season (the computers liked the close FBS losses).

There's no credible way, computers or no computers, that you can say Furman was anything other than a mediocre FCS team in 2019. Anyone who says the Paladins were good doesn't understand how weak the schedule was, and also doesn't have functional eyeballs.

Here are the Massey ranks of Furman's 2019 FCS opponents, with outcome:

26 - L
32 - L
55 - L
59 - W
68 - W
74 - W
80 - W
93 - W
94 - W
105 - W

[The Jackal]

Data is a tool, not a panacea.

There are things baked into those numbers that Furman has little control over (such as the strength of our conference schedule).

Weak opponents don't hurt your ranking, so long as you beat them handily. At one point during the season, Furman's computer rankings were pretty good.

Furman's ranking dropped because the Paladins got buried by all 3 decent FCS opponents that they played. Citadel, Wofford, and APSU are all borderline top 25 teams at best, so obviously Furman was not at that borderline top 25 level. If anything, #43 is probably overstating things, because the better outcomes happened early in the season (the computers liked the close FBS losses).

There's no credible way, computers or no computers, that you can say Furman was anything other than a mediocre FCS team in 2019. Anyone who says the Paladins were good doesn't understand how weak the schedule was, and also doesn't have functional eyeballs.

You are making different arguments. Goalpost shifting, if you will.

Do I think that Furman is a national title contender? No. Did anyone on here make that argument all season? I don't think they did.

Is Furman better today than they were a few years ago? Yes. You can data point yourself to death, but that is patently apparent.

In my opinion, there are two really good teams in the FCS and a bunch of teams that are just lining up to get beat by those two teams. I think that Furman, like a large part of the FCS, is better than most teams but not in the conversation among the upper tier.

What you see as "mediocre" I just see as a massive section of the FCS that aren't James Madison and NDSU. Those teams, as has been the case all year, are capable of beating and losing to most of the rest of that group.

As I have repeatedly said all year, the talent in the FCS right now is an inch deep and a mile wide. You can label that however you want.

[youwouldno]

What you see as "mediocre" I just see as a massive section of the FCS that aren't James Madison and NDSU. Those teams, as has been the case all year, are capable of beating and losing to most of the rest of that group.

As I have repeatedly said all year, the talent in the FCS right now is an inch deep and a mile wide. You can label that however you want.

This is obviously a bogus narrative - Wofford, Citadel, and APSU-level teams have no hope against NDSU or JMU or the other top several teams. Yet, that level of team crushed the Paladins. Furman was not equal to that level of team. It could not possibly have been any more evident.

There is no reason why all non-NDSU teams should be considered equal. They obviously are not. Wofford was obviously better than Furman. Furman was obviously better than Mercer. And so on.

And talk about goalpost shifting - no one has said that Furman is a failure unless it equals NDSU. The hope has been that Furman would be competitive with the next rung down. The Paladins aren't at that level (e.g., Sac St.), they aren't at the level below that (APSU), and they arguably aren't even at the level below that (e.g., Citadel).

Any attempt to paint the 2019 season in a positive light relies on nonsense, by definition (since it's objectively false). 'Well, we won 8 games.' 'Well, no one is as good as NDSU anyway.' etc. All totally meaningless and irrelevant.