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 #56637  by gofurman
 Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:19 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:23 pm
Let's take it one game at a time.

Saturday gave me some comfort that this team can get it done against a good team in a tight ball game when everything isn't quite working like you hope it would.

Remember, we are still three games in to a new offensive system with a QB that didn't have a spring practice and has limited starting experience. I'm anxious to see what we look like as guys get more comfortable with what we're doing on offense.
I’m with this. I think it showed a little at ETSU.

LOTS of learning. The upside. is room for improvement. Each week a new OC and new qb in system (and recvr etc) improve more than if all were together 4 yrs. I wish huff and Roper had been together several yrs but at least they should improve. And w Huffs run ability he really only has to look at maybe two recvrs
 #56794  by AstroDin
 Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:53 am
Should be a good bit of movement in the polls this week.

Losses
Missouri ST 2-2
Incarnate WORD 3-1
Villanova 2-2
Chatty 3-1
W&M 3-1
Eastern Washington 1-2
EKU 2-2
North Dakota 2-2
UC Davis 1-2
Rhode Island 1-1
Dartmouth 1-1
Furman should jump the teams in bold.
Affirm liked this
 #56823  by Affirm
 Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:43 pm
Yes, I do still like to look at Sagarin. I realize lots of others say Sagarin is worthless (or whatever). I am beginning to wonder about them also. I guess the main thing I like just the format and how it intersperses FCS teams with FBS teams.

This week (9/24 games), I am pointing out some of the puzzling ranking changes by Sagarincompared to last week (9/17).

Below you will see:
SCHOOL NAME
below school name last week's Sagarin ranking (after 1/17 games)
then below last week's ranking, this week's (after 1/24 games)

I double checked to make sure I got the dates correct.
And I think I got the rankings numbers right for each school.

again,

SCHOOL NAME
    below school name last week's Sagarin ranking (after 1/17 games)
      then below last week's ranking, this week's (after 1/24 games)

      FURMAN
      139
      demoted to 148


      CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
      214
      201

      SAMFORD
      150
      140

      MERCER
      152
      131

      CHATTANOOGA
      115
      128

      ETSU
      178
      165


      HOLY CROSS
      143
      132

      ELON
      154
      147

      JACKSONVILLE STATE
      157
      145

      RICHMOND
      160
      144

      KENNESAW STATE
      168
      145


      CLEMSON
      11
      12

      WAKE FOREST
      39
      45

      NCSU
      30
      30

      JAMES MADISON
      64
      53

      ASU
      54
      52


      UofSC
      73
      62

      CHARLOTTE
      167
      173

      WOFFORD
      188
      191

      CITADEL
      195
      190


      WCU
      152
      177

      VMI
      199
      200
       #56830  by gofurman
       Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:30 pm
      KSU promoted. Big for beating Woff??
       #56839  by Affirm
       Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:53 pm
      stonemd wrote:
      Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:50 pm
      https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/2800

      I see we are favored in all the remaining games - but that does not necessarily project to a 10-1 record. For example if we are 60% likely to win in game 4 and game 5 it amounts to only a 36% chance (0.60x0.60) of winning both games. But I do like 10-1

      To me, it appears Massey says we will lose to both Chatt and Mercer, and will get another 5 point squeaker win against Samford. Why do you say you see we are favored in all remaining games.
      But maybe I just don't know how to comprehend what Massey is saying. It's pretty inconvenient.
       #56840  by Affirm
       Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:56 pm
      So what IS a reputable rating/ranking free service that is more reliable than Sagarin, equally as readable as Sagarin, and that intersperses relative strength of FCS teams among relative strength of FBS teams (like Sagarin does).
      Would someone please say and give the link and/or website URL.
      Meanwhile, I will unfortunately continue to rely on Sagarin - or possibly fortunately whenever the numbers get around to making Furman look as good as possible.
       #56842  by FUBeAR
       Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:33 pm
      affirm wrote:
      Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:56 pm
      So what IS a reputable rating/ranking free service that is more reliable than Sagarin, equally as readable as Sagarin, and that intersperses relative strength of FCS teams among relative strength of FBS teams (like Sagarin does).
      Would someone please say and give the link and/or website URL.
      Meanwhile, I will unfortunately continue to rely on Sagarin - or possibly fortunately whenever the numbers get around to making Furman look as good as possible.
      Massey with FBS & FCS together - use the D1 option

      https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/ncaa-d1/ratings

      Massey’s FCS #1, SacState, shows up at #70 in D1
       #56845  by gofurman
       Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:43 pm
      FUBeAR wrote:
      Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:33 pm
      affirm wrote:
      Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:56 pm
      So what IS a reputable rating/ranking free service that is more reliable than Sagarin, equally as readable as Sagarin, and that intersperses relative strength of FCS teams among relative strength of FBS teams (like Sagarin does).
      Would someone please say and give the link and/or website URL.
      Meanwhile, I will unfortunately continue to rely on Sagarin - or possibly fortunately whenever the numbers get around to making Furman look as good as possible.
      Massey with FBS & FCS together - use the D1 option

      https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/ncaa-d1/ratings

      Massey’s FCS #1, SacState, shows up at #70 in D1
      I think he has us at number 11 FCS !!
       #56850  by AstroDin
       Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:19 am
      Roundball wrote:
      Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:01 am
      FWIW, but an interesting read. “FCS Playoff Projection: BMac’s Take After Four Weeks.” https://gridironheroics.com/fcs-playoff ... week-four/
      I've always felt that BMac does his homework. Great news that he's championing Furman. Having a voice out there like him can turn a vote or two.

      Based on his thinking — the DINS have to knockout Samford this weekend and stay in the conversation heading into the matchup with Chatty on Oct. 29.

      This weekend could create some havoc - Chatty plays at ETSU in a night game. I'm going with the Bucs.
      I think Mercer gets the W against WCU this week but stubs a toe on the road at VMI, Chatty, or Samford.

      It's still too early to have any faith in anything right now - this weekend's matchups will start to put things into shape.
       #56851  by The Jackal
       Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:53 am
      AstroDin wrote:
      Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:19 am
      Roundball wrote:
      Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:01 am
      FWIW, but an interesting read. “FCS Playoff Projection: BMac’s Take After Four Weeks.” https://gridironheroics.com/fcs-playoff ... week-four/
      I've always felt that BMac does his homework. Great news that he's championing Furman. Having a voice out there like him can turn a vote or two.

      Based on his thinking — the DINS have to knockout Samford this weekend and stay in the conversation heading into the matchup with Chatty on Oct. 29.

      This weekend could create some havoc - Chatty plays at ETSU in a night game. I'm going with the Bucs.
      I think Mercer gets the W against WCU this week but stubs a toe on the road at VMI, Chatty, or Samford.

      It's still too early to have any faith in anything right now - this weekend's matchups will start to put things into shape.
      ETSU took all their Furman frustrations out on Robert Morris. I still think they are a very dangerous team in conference play and will easily be the best FCS team UTC has seen this season.

      Mercer had a strong showing against a gritty GWU team. They play Wofford, not WCU.

      At this stage, we need all of our conference front runners to keep burying the Terriers. Wofford, though, showed a little life against KSU and Mercer will have consecutive road games up to the Carolinas. I'm not sure we will really see what Mercer is made of until the second half of their schedule.

      Every SoCon game is big, but Furman's gotta win at home.
       #56854  by The Jackal
       Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:02 am
      Samford, I think, is in the top 25 largely as a product of beating Kennesaw State.

      After a few weeks, I'm pretty convinced that KSU was nowhere near the top 10 team voters had pegged them for in the preseason. They struggled to beat the SoCon's worst team at home. Wofford threw for 358 yards against their defense.
       #56856  by gman84
       Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:20 am
      My gut tells me Wofford is going to ruin a few team's season this year. They may look like a dumpster fire now, but they have been improving.
       #56866  by The Jackal
       Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:03 am
      gman84 wrote:
      Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:20 am
      My gut tells me Wofford is going to ruin a few team's season this year. They may look like a dumpster fire now, but they have been improving.
      Wofford's defense isn't terrible. Their primary issue has been putting it together offensively.

      Honestly, it wouldn't shock me to see them win some low scoring games against teams that have an off day offensively. I doubt they are going to win a lot of shootouts, though.
       #56867  by MNORM
       Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:57 am
      Dropped a spot to 27th in the Coaches Poll.

      The fact that they still have Rhode Island in and left S. Illinois out speaks a little to how much effort some of these coaches put into their individual poll submissions.