The 2020 Season

[FUBeAR]

You can’t be serious. What about the families of these players you would have get infected?
One of the underlying health factors for serious illness is BMI ... how many D1 college linemen weigh 300 lbs+?In addition there will be those with undiagnosed health conditions
that put them at greater risk. All of this so they won’t get infected during football and deprive us our entertainment... just absurd.

Ok try to follow me. School starts in August, right? When school starts there will be lots of parties and other social activities, right? College football players and college students are found at colleges. So they will be present for said parties and social activities, right?

So explain to me how you are going to keep them from getting infected then.

Looks like some of those parties have already started in Alabama

Note: Apologies - I didn’t see Roundball’s earlier post about these parties. Covid = 2020’s TidePod Challenge

[Paul C]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2
16 June study Nature

"Data from early in the pandemic overestimated how deadly the virus was, and then later analyses underestimated its lethality. Now, numerous studies — using a range of methods — estimate that in many countries some 5 to 10 people will die for every 1,000 people with COVID-19. “The studies I have any faith in are tending to converge around 0.5–1%,” says Russell."

One of the first studies to account for the effect of age was posted on a preprint server last week. The study, based on seroprevalence data from Geneva, Switzerland, estimates an IFR of 0.6% for the total population, and an IFR of 5.6% for people aged 65 and older.


This is 5 to 10X the death rate of the flu...with no vaccine to prevent to spread. In some good news early Pfizer vaccine trials showed promise.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20101253v2

STOP. IFR is clearly waaaaay lower than 1% (vs the 3% the panic porn prognisticators were peddling)

and if we protect our elderly, the IFR is TINY....and in the FLU range.

"Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.02% to 0.86% (median 0.26%) and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.78% (median 0.25%). Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%). Most studies were done in pandemic epicenters and the few studies done in locations with more modest death burden also suggested lower infection fatality rates. Conclusions The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients as well as multiple other factors. Estimates of infection fatality rates inferred from seroprevalence studies tend to be much lower than original speculations made in the early days of the pandemic."

[FUBeAR]

I will repeat myself. It's simple folks. Wear a mask. Does not get any clearer than that.

FUBeAR is so confused!

Do I follow the repeated, simple, clear direction of Roundball or accept the work of the Scientists from the CDC & the WHO?

"In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza [virus] transmission with the use of face masks."

"We did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza [virus] transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility."

“Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months. The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza [virus] cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies.”

May 2020 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994-f2

[FU3]

Paul C feel free to pick whatever epidemiological studies that will assist your assertions . I chose the Nature study because it was a fairly a fairly recent review. Having read a fair number of these I believe your view that this disease and the damage and death it brings is overblown would put you in the distinct minority of current science. But as you pointed out this is not your (nor mine) day job.

[Sad Din]

Here's the deal... there are 328M Furman fans in the US

If only 10% get the virus its 33M.

If 1% of those dont make it, its 330k

Personally I think thats worth a little effort like wearing masks

[FUBeAR]

Here's the deal... there are 328M Furman fans in the US

If only 10% get the virus its 33M.

If 1% of those dont make it, its 330k

Personally I think thats worth a little effort like wearing masks

That recent study of studies conducted by the WHO & published by the CDC that FUBeAR posted seems to align with Mr. Abel as he is contemplating the concept of worrying.

[FurmAlum]

Its idiots like this that are putting the 2020 college football season in jeopardy. https://fansided.com/2020/07/01/alabama ... d-parties/

They outta throw all of them in jail and let them stay there for a couple weeks. No bail. They could do "online classes from the slammer".

Then, the first one that tests positive gets his sorry ass sent home for good. That ought to stop it.

[Paul C]

Paul C feel free to pick whatever epidemiological studies that will assist your assertions . I chose the Nature study because it was a fairly a fairly recent review. Having read a fair number of these I believe your view that this disease and the damage and death it brings is overblown would put you in the distinct minority of current science. But as you pointed out this is not your (nor mine) day job.

What I have seen through this whole event is the prognosticators and “experts” have been ratcheting their doomsday predictions lower and lower and lower. So I’m just going with the trend.

Again I ask....if we knew then what we know now, would we have shut things down? And remember our goal then was simply to “flatten the curve” and prevent our healthcare system from getting overwhelmed. That’s been done. The goal was never to get infections and deaths to 0, which now seems to be the goal.

[Roundball]

Paul C feel free to pick whatever epidemiological studies that will assist your assertions . I chose the Nature study because it was a fairly a fairly recent review. Having read a fair number of these I believe your view that this disease and the damage and death it brings is overblown would put you in the distinct minority of current science. But as you pointed out this is not your (nor mine) day job.

What I have seen through this whole event is the prognosticators and “experts” have been ratcheting their doomsday predictions lower and lower and lower. So I’m just going with the trend.

Again I ask....if we knew then what we know now, would we have shut things down? And remember our goal then was simply to “flatten the curve” and prevent our healthcare system from getting overwhelmed. That’s been done. The goal was never to get infections and deaths to 0, which now seems to be the goal.

I vote for getting infections and deaths to 0.

[FUBeAR]

I vote for getting infections and deaths to 0.

FUBeAR concurs with Roundball’s vote & also votes for 0 deaths from the following...

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404

Thankfully, we’ve already been able to totally eliminate deaths from such horrors as unicorn gorings & porcine anal aerial exits. We can do the same for all the above & covid too! #Believe2Achieve

[Furmanoid]

Paul C is absolutely right. It was supposed to be two weeks to flatten the curve. The American people (who are constantly bashed as idiots by some on here) responded so well that Fauci et al lost their minds and started thinking they could cure the pandemic by shutdown. That couldn’t work but it took a few weeks for people to come to their senses after enormous damage was already done. And had it not been for governors in TX, GA and FL we might still be locked down. Because those guys prevented the destruction of the USA, they now have media crosshairs on them. The fable is that they ignored expert advice and now they have out of control outbreaks. Ok, TX has one of the dumb governors and 8 deaths per 100,000. NY has a genius governor (according to press) and 150 deaths per 100,000. I’ll take the dumb guy.

You can’t have zero cases. That is dumb. We are doing about as well or better than other countries with good data.

Why are there areas with “skyrocketing cases” now? Because of the shut downs. They delayed the inevitable peaks. Had we stuck to two weeks to flatten the curve we and lots of other states would have our peaks in the rear view.

[FU3]

Paul C feel free to pick whatever epidemiological studies that will assist your assertions . I chose the Nature study because it was a fairly a fairly recent review. Having read a fair number of these I believe your view that this disease and the damage and death it brings is overblown would put you in the distinct minority of current science. But as you pointed out this is not your (nor mine) day job.

What I have seen through this whole event is the prognosticators and “experts” have been ratcheting their doomsday predictions lower and lower and lower. So I’m just going with the trend.

Again I ask....if we knew then what we know now, would we have shut things down? And remember our goal then was simply to “flatten the curve” and prevent our healthcare system from getting overwhelmed. That’s been done. The goal was never to get infections and deaths to 0, which now seems to be the goal.

I heard a lot of prognosticators saying things like”no worse than the common cold” and “like a miracle it will go away”. The whole world has this disease and some countries have handled it far better than others ... that is a fact.I thought the goal was to avoid exponential growth (compare our current situation to the EU) and as you said overloading health care systems.Hospitals in Texas (per the Governor of Texas ..hardly a CNN contributor)and Arizona are being stretched to their limits with California not far behind with no drop in infections in sight. Even in SC Governor McMaster ( who knows his constituents) threatened to shut down football In the fall because hospitalizations, infections and death are rising rapidly. I am going to take a pass on the victory lap for right now.

[furpep]

I just started following this thread and am sort of disappointed at there are many who seem to believe that football takes precedence over health concerns and the needless exposure of young men and women to these risks. I am a proponent of cancelling all NCAA sports until at least January, andI personally believe that all colleges should go to online learning until at least Winter. But if they have college sports then it should be without fans. No need to put anyone at risk, needlessly. Sorry if this is an unpopular position but I have no problem without sports in my life for now.

[Furmanoid]

I’ve mostly just been saying that if you have school you may as well have sports. No school and no sports is the other option. But it isn’t without consequences. About 20% or more of SC public school students just disappeared from the system when school shut down. Their parents probably weren’t Furman grads, but we all sure SAY we care about them. Do we really? At the k-12 level the quality of remote instruction was very spotty. Let’s be honest, it was terrible.
At the college level it was way more spotty. I sat through some of it, and it was pretty clear that Profs were just going through the motions. This isn’t what they were hired to do. Then this summer my daughter took calculus and chemistry(she added a BS major at the end of the year). She had to teach herself calculus mostly with YouTube. Chemistry was better, but she had online chem labs. Does that sound legit? Good news is everybody’s making A’s. I wonder how.

So if we stay shut down we’ll have several graduating classes where 2 semesters, 1 full year, of the kids’ 4 year education was probably pretty bogus.

And don’t forget the colleges that will shut their doors for good, and the thousands of academic careers wrecked.

All of this would be to protect students from something like a 0.1 or much less risk for their age group. Maybe we should wait a few more weeks before we panic. The nyc nightmare lasted 3-4 weeks before peaking. We are 4 weeks or so into out steep uphill climb. Why do we assume it will last 10-12 weeks unlike anywhere else in the world?

[Roundball]

I’ve mostly just been saying that if you have school you may as well have sports. No school and no sports is the other option. But it isn’t without consequences. About 20% or more of SC public school students just disappeared from the system when school shut down. Their parents probably weren’t Furman grads, but we all sure SAY we care about them. Do we really? At the k-12 level the quality of remote instruction was very spotty. Let’s be honest, it was terrible.
At the college level it was way more spotty. I sat through some of it, and it was pretty clear that Profs were just going through the motions. This isn’t what they were hired to do. Then this summer my daughter took calculus and chemistry(she added a BS major at the end of the year). She had to teach herself calculus mostly with YouTube. Chemistry was better, but she had online chem labs. Does that sound legit? Good news is everybody’s making A’s. I wonder how.

So if we stay shut down we’ll have several graduating classes where 2 semesters, 1 full year, of the kids’ 4 year education was probably pretty bogus.

And don’t forget the colleges that will shut their doors for good, and the thousands of academic careers wrecked.

All of this would be to protect students from something like a 0.1 or much less risk for their age group. Maybe we should wait a few more weeks before we panic. The nyc nightmare lasted 3-4 weeks before peaking. We are 4 weeks or so into out steep uphill climb. Why do we assume it will last 10-12 weeks unlike anywhere else in the world?

I hope you are right, but let’s be real when trying to compare our possible peak with what happened in N.Y. The New Yorkers stayed home, wore masks and social distanced. It’s the wild wild west around here. I pray we peak quickly, but based on what I see, hear, and read, we have a long ways to go.