BWahlberg wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:50 pm
This is Montana’s first quarterfinal playoff game AT HOME since 2011… wild. And coming to town are the #7 Furman Paladins, who last played Montana in the 2001 National Championship.
This Furman team is a formidable one. It is LOADED with experienced starters and usually plays upwards of 15 to 16 seniors on both sides of the ball. In the SoCon pre-season they were selected to win the conference (tie vote with Samford). They returned 20 starters from a 10-3 team in 2022 that lost in the quarterfinals in a last minute score to Incarnate Word.
By season’s end Furman landed quite a bit of conference hardware. Their QB Tyler Huff is conference MVP, the backup QB Carson Jones shared freshman of the year. One of their OL is the outstanding lineman, and they placed 2 OL on the 1st team and another on the 2nd team. Of their 4 starting DL, 3 made first or second team. Their RB was 2nd team as well, and their ball hawking secondary saw 1 DB land 1st team and two more land 2nd team. Naturally, their head coach also won coach of the year for their conference.
Furman was in contention for landing the #2 seed until their last week of the season when they tripped up and lost to a bad Wofford team – sinking them to the 7 seed. In that game they were without their starting QB, but he’s back and seemingly healthy now. Some FCS writers, up until that game, were saying Furman had a tougher/better schedule and more “significant wins” than Montana (FCS Fans Nation mostly).
As has been reported/posted here before, Justin Roper is their OC, a former Griz QB who was on the 2009 and 2010 teams. He’s rapidly ascending through the coaching ranks.
Fuman Paladins 10-2
45-10 win vs Tennessee Tech: It took Furman a little bit to get rolling, up just 21-10 at the half, and 24-10 at the end of the 3rd, but in the 4th quarter Furman housed a pick-six and then scored on the next drive as well to put the game on ice. Furman had almost 385 yards of offense and forced 4 INTs and 2 Fumbles in the game.
21-47 loss @ South Carolina: Playing in front of 78,000 fans Furman had a 14-7 lead in the 2nd quarter and held a 14-14 tie almost until halftime. However with less than 1 minute to half, SC finds the endzone and goes up 20-14, then they hold FU to a 3 and out and use timeouts to get the ball back. With 23 seconds left in the half SC hits a 51 yard pass, then gets a PI call on Furman, then finds the endzone again. They would add 13 more and pull away in the 3rd quarter. SC had a hard time running the ball, 2.8 YPC on 39 attempts, but the did pass for nearly 465 yards, so there was that.
31-28 win @ Kennesaw State: KSU was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter but stormed back and the game turned into an absolute shootout after that. KSU forced a few 4Q 3 and outs and tied the game all up at 28-28. With the game tied and 3:30 to go, Furman marches the field and kicks a 20 yard game winning field goal. KSU had just 19 seconds left and tossed a pick to end the game. KSU out-gained Furman by almost 100 yards, largely thanks to 300+ passing yards.
38-14 win vs Mercer: At the time Mercer was 21st in the FCS. Furman ran for 222 and held the ball for almost 34:00 of TOP. Mercer had a few drives stop short at midfield early, they missed a field goal, and then closed the game with 3 turnovers on downs.
28-14 win vs The Citadel: Furman ran for 200, and gave up 240 passing while forcing 3 turnovers from The Citadel who finished 0-11 on the season. There was just 1 punt the whole game. Citadel’s 14 points game late in the game, they were up 28-0 until just about the last minute of the 3rd.
27-21 win @ Samford: It was a close game the whole way but Furman did hold the lead through most of it. Furman was super balanced this game, 210 rushing, 205 passing. They did up nearly 300 passing to Samford.
29-17 win @ Western Carolina: WCU was #8 then but dropped a few games and finished 7-4 at the end of the season. Another closer final score but a game where Furman had and held the lead essentially the entire game. Furman’s running game wrecked WCU with 330 on the ground, while holding them to just 84 total rushing yards. Furman grabbed 2 picks and held the ball for over 35 minutes of TOP.
16-8 win vs E. Tennessee State: Not a pretty box score, Furman had 300 total yards, 215 of which passing, while ETSU had 230 total. ETSU tossed 3 interceptions in the game as well. ESTU’s only score came on a 4th quarter punt block score and 2 point conversion.
17-14 win @ Chattanooga: Then ranked #13 Chatty was playing Furman for the SoCon title. It was a grudge match the whole way, 7-3 at the half, then 10-7 Furman in the 4th, a 70 yard Chatt TD makes it 14-10, and then with 1:44 left in the game Furman scores the go-ahead TD. Chattanooga would get close to midfield on the ensuing drive but turned it over on downs. It appears this was the game where Furman’s QB Huff goes down and their Freshman QB went the rest of the way. Both teams had just 68 yards rushing, Furman passed for 176 while Chatty passed for 290. Chattanooga was just 3-15 on 3rd down, missed a field goal early, and lost an interception in the Furman red zone.
37-3 win vs VMI: Furman had 350 total yards and held VMI under 200 total, plus they forced 2 turnovers in the game. Furman’s freshman QB Jones threw 4 TD passes in the game.
13-19 loss @ Wofford: Another super ugly box score, Furman ran for just 89 yards, while Wofford had 92. Furman passed for 99, Wofford for 92. Both teams lost an interception, Furman lost 1 fumble, Wofford lost 3 fumbles. It was 19-6 Wofford through the 3rd and into the 4th. Furman scored with 12:00 to go in the game to make it 19-13. From there Furman had 2 possessions to win the game, they would go 3 and out and a turnover on downs in 4 plays.
26-7 win vs Chattanooga: In a 2nd round rematch Furman got their QB back and despite a rocky start (interception and Chatty TD). Furman would lock down and score the last 26 points of the game. They were perfectly balanced, 192 rushing / 192 passing. They forced 2 Chatty interceptions and held the ball for over 35:00 of clock. Where in the last game Chattanooga had nearly 300 passing on Furman, this time they just 200.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (199 for GRIZ vs 190 for FUR)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (194 for GRIZ vs 163 for FUR)
Total offense GRIZ (393 for GRIZ vs 353 for FUR)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (214 for GRIZ vs 220 for FUR)
Rushing yards allowed per game FUR (98 for GRIZ vs 93 for FUR)
Total defense GRIZ (312 for GRIZ vs 313 for FUR)
I’d said it on the pod, pretty evenly matched across the board. UM’s rushing game is really the only large difference, notice how close the defenses are – they practically all should be a push. But techinally we have Montana getting 5 and Furman getting 1
Offense points scored GRIZ (32 for GRIZ vs 27.3 for FUR)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (14.8 for GRIZ vs 16.8 for FUR)
Turnover margin FUR (+10 for GRIZ / +17 for FUR)
Fieldgoal % FUR (70% for GRIZ vs 73% for FUR)
Punt Returns GRIZ (12.8 yards for GRIZ vs 8.4 yards for FUR)
Kick Returns FUR (19.8 yards for GRIZ vs 22.6 yards for FUR)
T.O.P. GRIZ (31:31 for GRIZ vs 31:29 for FUR)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (55% GRIZ / 64% FUR)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (67% GRIZ / 60% FUR)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (45% for GRIZ / 43% for FUR)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (30% allowed for GRIZ vs 33% allowed for FUR)
I’m kind of surprised at this one, thought it’d be more evenly split. Griz get 8, Furman gets 3. That puts the total at Montana 13 – Furman 4.
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UD Players to Watch:
#6 Tyler Huff, QB: A 6-1, 216 pound dual threat QB, he’s averaging just about 170 passing per game and has 9 passing TDs to 5 INTs. He’s also the 2nd leading rusher on the team with 520 yards and 5 TDs. Huff is a grad-transfer (came to Furman last year) and carries over years of experience as a starter for two programs.
#8 Dominic Roberto, RB: The leading rusher on the team by almost double the attempts of Huff. Roberto is a load, he’s 5-11 and 231 pounds, he’s not afraid of contact at all and is a bulldozer of a back. This season he has 755 yards on the ground and 9 TDs, he’s got just 46 receiving yards.
#2 Joshua Harris, WR: He’s the teams leading WR in receptions (40) and yards (359). He’s got 2 receiving TDs. He also is the team’s primary punt returner and has nearly a 7.5 yard per return average.
#9 Wayne Anderson, Jr, RB: He will sub in a lot at RB, he’s 200 pounds and has 262 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD, he’s a pass catching back too, he’s got 175 receiving yards and 1 TD this season. Also, he’s their most dangerous kick returner on the field, statistically. He’s got a near 26 yard per return average.
#1 Travis Blackshear, DB: A first team all conference selection. The 5-11, 185 pound DB has 4 interceptions and a team high 9 pass breakups. He’s got just 25 tackles and 2 TFLs on the season, seems teams avoid him, but he’s still found the ball a lot.
#24 Cally Chizik, DB: This 5-9, 183 pound DB has 5 interceptions, he’s also 4th best on the team with 55 tackles, he’s got 3.5 TFLs on the season too.
#43 Braden Gilby, LB: Gilby leads the team in tackles, he’s got 81 this season. He has 3 sacks, 7 TFLs, and 1 fumble recovery on the season.
#7 Matt Sochovka, DT: Furman’s own Gubner. Kid is 6-4 and nearly 300 pounds. His stat line is what you’d expect for a D-line guy, 18 tackles, 5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 5 QB hits. He made first team all conference. Ignore the stats, recognize that of a large and talented D-line, he’s the best of the group.
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Keys to a victory
1. Keep Huff in the pocket. Super tough task to do so. In the games I watched Huff really makes things happen with his feet. He’ll escape pressure, move laterally, keep his eyes downfield and hit a big strike. Or… he’ll take off running. I’m going to assume the Grizzly defense won’t “spy” him because I’ve not really seen that, but we have to make sure our pressure sends him backwards and not sideways. Huff is the X-factor to their offense, if he’s on the loose it’ll be a long day for the Montana defense.
2. Win the turnover battle. We’ve got a +10 Montana team vs a +17 Furman team. Furman, I noticed, tended to get their turnovers in bunches, a few games where they had a lot, others where they had 1 or none. Montana cannot give the ball away too much, and has to get 2 or more from Furman themselves.
3. Run the damn ball. Yes, Furman in their closer games gave up a lot through the air, however there’s multiple factors at play here for a Montana win. Both teams are ball control teams, the team that runs and controls the clock better and has the better ground game will play well into their strategy. Both teams have statistically awesome rush defenses, the Griz will need to puncture that and show we have the strength in the trenches. It won’t be easy, the Furman DL is very big and strong, maybe one of the larger ones the Griz have seen this season.
4. Again, be the better special teams group. Just like last week we’ve got two pretty good ST units facing off. Last week Montana blocked a UD punt that set up a short score as they got the upper hand on that unit, plus we hit 2 field goals in the snow. Furman has good returners and a very good kicker – Montana will have to be the better group again this week.
5. Make those Red Zone trips count. Furman has only allowed opponents into their red zone 22 times this year, that’s less than 2 times per game. That’s also better than Montana’s defense even. Griz need to get things going early and often and make those trips count with points.
6. Wa Griz needs to SHOW UP. We’ve been great about it all year, let’s keep it rolling. Furman is a team that uses lots of line adjustments. If they can’t hear the calls well they’ll get flustered. I saw fans on their message board saying they’ll just “crank up the music” at practice this week to simulate noise. OK… good luck with that. 12th man needs to be roaring.
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I’m actually having a hard time landing on a score here. The SoCon isn’t the Big Sky, but Furman was/is clearly head and shoulders the best team in that conference. If they don’t drop that Wofford game thanks to an injury to their starter QB they’re either the 2 or 3 seed. I don’t think they’re a pushover, I don’t think they’ll be intimidated by the stage either. They’re a very veteran squad that’s played together for years. I think they’re going to test the Grizzly run defense in ways we’ve not seen for a few and that could pose some troubles.
With both teams probably wanting to slow this game down, I really could see a limited amount of possessions for each and thus a lower scoring game. I think the first team that eclipses 21 points comes away the winner here. That said, I think Montana’s the team that’ll do that. I’m saying Griz win; 31-14.
Go Griz!
