FUBeAR Thanks for the correction on missing DBs. Ok, so nothing to really see there. Appreciate THE information.
Now WHAT I REALLY WANT. THE FUBeAR honest opinion of how this plays out
No one knows both teams much better than the FUBeAR.
I know that Furman has stout run d but definitely allows some big pass plays. Captain obvious. Problem is Mercer has probably the best tandem in Harper and James. Names? Scares me. Also Furman has yet to show a good pass rush. UTC had more sacks vs KSU than FU has all year? Something like that. And UTC was facing the same elusive QB in KSU. FU MUST get to qb or we can’t cover that long
Sure would help if Johanning and OL CAN KEEP 5 yard runs going for long drives to get a TD. in total we have struggled to run well enough. People see us and also stack the box daring us to pass.
Anyway. I think we all know what I typed.
FUBeAR throw me a bone and give me some more insights. Are the Mercer DBs just tackling poorly or also not coverings well?
How strong is the Mercer OL and run game? Etc
How well does Mercer stop the opponent run game ?
Mercer - Sep. 23
Monday musings.
Mercer is undoubtedly going to try and leverage their biggest strength - their WR corps - against Furman's biggest defensive weakness - pass coverage in the deep third of the field.
To do that, Mercer is going to need to buy QB Carter Peevy time to throw.
As an aside, it's a bit staggering just how many pass attempts Mercer throws to one of those two receivers - James and Harper. Peevy has 41 completions on the season for 521 yards. 27 of those completions (65%) for 77% of total passing yardage has gone to one of those two players.
Mercer's third leading receiver has 23 yards receiving on three catches. For comparison's sake, that would put him about 10th on Furman's ledger, a team that schematically spreads the ball out a lot more.
Furman is going to have to get pressure in the backfield.
I think you'll see the defense dial up more pressure than they did the last two weeks. Peevy is a good runner and can certainly take off, but he lacks the lateral quickness that Furman saw the last two weeks with USC's Rattler and KSU's Murphy. Furman - at least in my view - looked reluctant to bring extra rushers so as to avoid being exposed by the quick passing game and elusive QBs.
Mercer is going to have to establish a running game, which they really were not able to do last season against Furman. Furman has to respect the Bears' ability to run between the tackles to open up Mercer's play action downfield game. Last season, Mercer wasn't able to run the ball, which, in turn, let Furman bring a lot of pressure on the backfield and bang around Fred Payton. That type of game isn't going to work for Mercer.
I would also expect some "trickeration" early. Mercer's had an off week to prepare. They know they'll have to land some haymakers and Furman is susceptible to big plays in the passing game. Like Furman opened up with USC with a WR pass, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Bears try to steal the momentum early.
Mercer is undoubtedly going to try and leverage their biggest strength - their WR corps - against Furman's biggest defensive weakness - pass coverage in the deep third of the field.
To do that, Mercer is going to need to buy QB Carter Peevy time to throw.
As an aside, it's a bit staggering just how many pass attempts Mercer throws to one of those two receivers - James and Harper. Peevy has 41 completions on the season for 521 yards. 27 of those completions (65%) for 77% of total passing yardage has gone to one of those two players.
Mercer's third leading receiver has 23 yards receiving on three catches. For comparison's sake, that would put him about 10th on Furman's ledger, a team that schematically spreads the ball out a lot more.
Furman is going to have to get pressure in the backfield.
I think you'll see the defense dial up more pressure than they did the last two weeks. Peevy is a good runner and can certainly take off, but he lacks the lateral quickness that Furman saw the last two weeks with USC's Rattler and KSU's Murphy. Furman - at least in my view - looked reluctant to bring extra rushers so as to avoid being exposed by the quick passing game and elusive QBs.
Mercer is going to have to establish a running game, which they really were not able to do last season against Furman. Furman has to respect the Bears' ability to run between the tackles to open up Mercer's play action downfield game. Last season, Mercer wasn't able to run the ball, which, in turn, let Furman bring a lot of pressure on the backfield and bang around Fred Payton. That type of game isn't going to work for Mercer.
I would also expect some "trickeration" early. Mercer's had an off week to prepare. They know they'll have to land some haymakers and Furman is susceptible to big plays in the passing game. Like Furman opened up with USC with a WR pass, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Bears try to steal the momentum early.
Davemeister liked this
When you go back and watch last year's highlights, you can see just how much trouble Mercer had with Tyler Huff.
The Bears, at least last year and a good bit this year, have struggled with tackling. Their defense couldn't get Huff on the ground last year.
The Bears, at least last year and a good bit this year, have struggled with tackling. Their defense couldn't get Huff on the ground last year.
Mercer/Morehead State from September 9.
First, Morehead State is not a particularly good team. Mercer struggled to put them away. It was an 8 point game in the fourth quarter. The Bears eventually wore them down late.
To the earlier point, Mercer is not a particularly good tackling team in the open field. They do a decent job gang tackling and running to the ball. Their defensive strength is swarming to the ball, but if you can break the initial rush you can run for a while.
The Bears have an aggressive pass rush and one of the league's better pressure guys (#11 Zubairu). It seems to bee that they frequently overrun the play, however. You can do that against Morehead State and make up for it with superior athletes, but Furman can punish them for it. Tyler Huff abused them last year after avoiding the initial rush and taking off to the space behind.
First, Morehead State is not a particularly good team. Mercer struggled to put them away. It was an 8 point game in the fourth quarter. The Bears eventually wore them down late.
To the earlier point, Mercer is not a particularly good tackling team in the open field. They do a decent job gang tackling and running to the ball. Their defensive strength is swarming to the ball, but if you can break the initial rush you can run for a while.
The Bears have an aggressive pass rush and one of the league's better pressure guys (#11 Zubairu). It seems to bee that they frequently overrun the play, however. You can do that against Morehead State and make up for it with superior athletes, but Furman can punish them for it. Tyler Huff abused them last year after avoiding the initial rush and taking off to the space behind.
Jackal read my mind.
Huff is a baller, and he has a will of iron when it comes down to critical make-or-break drives.
I'm not discounting the Mercer QB but I'm glad we have Huff running our offense in this matchup.
Huff is a baller, and he has a will of iron when it comes down to critical make-or-break drives.
I'm not discounting the Mercer QB but I'm glad we have Huff running our offense in this matchup.
dornb liked this
Peevy's a good player. He's a different type of QB than Huff.
Furman's going to have to get back there to him. Our biggest weakness might be Mercer's biggest strength - staying in pass coverage long enough on the deep ball.
At the same time, Mercer's going to have to figure out how to run the ball against our front. Without a steady running game (like KSU had) I think they'll see Furman dial up the defensive pressure.
This is essentially what sunk the Bears last year. They couldn't run the ball and it left Furman to just come after their QB all afternoon. Hard to let those downfield routes develop with defenders in your grill.
I like the photo on the right they used of Huff, IN YO FACE 
This is an interesting topic for discussion.The Jackal wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:42 pm
Peevy's a good player. He's a different type of QB than Huff.
Furman's going to have to get back there to him. Our biggest weakness might be Mercer's biggest strength - staying in pass coverage long enough on the deep ball.
At the same time, Mercer's going to have to figure out how to run the ball against our front. Without a steady running game (like KSU had) I think they'll see Furman dial up the defensive pressure.
This is essentially what sunk the Bears last year. They couldn't run the ball and it left Furman to just come after their QB all afternoon. Hard to let those downfield routes develop with defenders in your grill.
Comparing Mercer's run game at the point Mercer and Furman met last year to Mercer's run game this season is really interesting.
It may be difficult to piece together from 2022 Game Notes, Player Participation Logs, and even Statistics; so you'll have to take it from FUBeAR, Mercer's run game was in the process of cratering by the time the Paladins went to Macon last Fall.
Starting and backup O-Linemen had been lost and others, along with RB's, were playing with rather significant injuries. Positions on the line had been re-shuffled (and FUBeAR ain't talking about their pre-snap shift), and because of all that, the QB run game had been all but put on ice. Because Coach Cronic's O is what it is, Mercer was able to pretend to still have a run game, but they were a 'paper alley cat.' And, as Jackal notes, the descent of the rushing attack showed up vs. Furman and then it prevented Mercer from defeating Samford the following week...costing the Bears a trip to the Playoffs and Furman a share of the SoCon Championship.
Now...Mercer's run game is trending in the opposite direction. Again, 2-Deeps, Player Participation, and Stats are not going to tell the true story here...so, again, you'll need to trust ol' FUBeAR, but he will try to tell you a little 'bout it. Via a mixture of additions (both HS and Transfers) and development, Mercer's O-Line is much better and much deeper than they were on 11/12/22.
They've added a transfer here and developed a R-FR there to come up with a cadre of Players who almost all look pretty good. In all 3 of their games, they have been rolling the O-Line from the 2nd Series on - they've used 5 OT's, 5 OG's, and 2 C's regularly. Also, while not behemoths like Pline, the Bears have added some young and sizeable talent at TE (6-4/6-5 230-250 types)...which helps in blocking. They have been 6-2/6-3 210-230 @ TE in the past.
RB is a bit different too.
While powerful and patient 6-0 225 Al Wooten continues to be the primary back...
...the much smaller and 'mercurial' Brandon Marshall has moved on as their 2nd option. While FUBeAR is sure the Bears would have liked to see 5-11 230 R-FR CJ Miller (who was 12-105 w/1 TD in really his only action (@ VMI) last season) as Wooten's backup, he is 'mysteriously' MIA, but remains on the roster. No idea if/when he will play or not in 2023. The Bears saw some nice burst from 5-10 205 Charlotte transfer, Micah Bell, operating as Wooten's backup against North Alabama AND True FR, 6-0 210, Tyrell Coard showed A LOT of POWER and burst in just 2 carries for 32 yards and a TD against Morehead and even in his 5 carries @ Ole Miss.
Also, Air Force Transfer, JR Parker Wroble, who is only 5-10 185, has been getting a good many carries from both his normal Slot/Wing (used to be called "Joker") position, but also from the RB spot. Though small in stature, he hits the hole quickly and with some power.
Add in Peevy ... a more powerful and fleeter, if less elusive, runner than Fred Payton...
and, of course, the dangerous Jet Sweeps of Devron Harper, and you have a full picture of the Bear's current rushing attack
Bottom Line....Mercer's Running Game was headed toward the toilet tank when Furman played Mercer in 2022. After re-tooling, the Bear's rushing attack seems to be on an upward trend (despite the stats) as this point in 2023. Of course, that doesn't mean they couldn't be at exactly the same place they were in November of 2022...but the trend line is, for now, IFBO, pointing in the other direction.
Jasper liked this
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers,
For he today who sheds his blood with me shall be my brother
For he today who sheds his blood with me shall be my brother
I think this a good "eyeball" evaluation of the Mercer run game rather than reliance on stats alone. I am a big believer in the eyeball test and am afraid you are right in your assessment. We dropped a notch in the rankings this week even though we beat an upwardly transitioning team in Kennesaw. Despite the overused cliche, a win in not a win. We simply did not look good. If you are correct in the Mercer assessment, we need to play better on both sides of the ball this week. This Din team certainly has the capacity to do just that and I hope the return of a real good starting lineman is enough to do the trick.FUBeAR wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 3:44 pmThis is an interesting topic for discussion.The Jackal wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:42 pm
Peevy's a good player. He's a different type of QB than Huff.
Furman's going to have to get back there to him. Our biggest weakness might be Mercer's biggest strength - staying in pass coverage long enough on the deep ball.
At the same time, Mercer's going to have to figure out how to run the ball against our front. Without a steady running game (like KSU had) I think they'll see Furman dial up the defensive pressure.
This is essentially what sunk the Bears last year. They couldn't run the ball and it left Furman to just come after their QB all afternoon. Hard to let those downfield routes develop with defenders in your grill.
Comparing Mercer's run game at the point Mercer and Furman met last year to Mercer's run game this season is really interesting.
It may be difficult to piece together from 2022 Game Notes, Player Participation Logs, and even Statistics; so you'll have to take it from FUBeAR, Mercer's run game was in the process of cratering by the time the Paladins went to Macon last Fall. Starting and backup O-Linemen had been lost and others, along with RB's, were playing with rather significant injuries. Positions on the line had been re-shuffled (and FUBeAR ain't talking about their pre-snap shift), and because of all that, the QB run game had been all but put on ice. Because Coach Cronic's O is what it is, Mercer was able to pretend to still have a run game, but they were a 'paper alley cat.' And, as Jackal notes, the descent of the rushing attack showed up vs. Furman and then it prevented Mercer from defeating Samford the following week...costing the Bears a trip to the Playoffs and Furman a share of the SoCon Championship.
Now...Mercer's run game is trending in the opposite direction. Again, 2-Deeps, Player Participation, and Stats are not going to tell the true story here...so, again, you'll need to trust ol' FUBeAR, but he will try to tell you a little 'bout it. Via a mixture of additions (both HS and Transfers) and development, Mercer's O-Line is much better and much deeper than they were on 11/12/22.
They've added a transfer here and developed a R-FR there to come up with a cadre of Players who almost all look pretty good. In all 3 of their games, they have been rolling the O-Line from the 2nd Series on - they've used 5 OT's, 5 OG's, and 2 C's regularly. Also, while not behemoths like Pline, the Bears have added some young and sizeable talent at TE (6-4/6-5 230-250 types)...which helps in blocking. They have been 6-2/6-3 210-230 @ TE in the past.
RB is a bit different too.
While powerful and patient 6-0 225 Al Wooten continues to be the primary back...
...the much smaller and 'mercurial' Brandon Marshall has moved on as their 2nd option. While FUBeAR is sure the Bears would have liked to see 5-11 230 R-FR CJ Miller (who was 12-105 w/1 TD in really his only action (@ VMI) last season) as Wooten's backup, he is 'mysteriously' MIA, but remains on the roster. No idea if/when he will play or not in 2023. The Bears saw some nice burst from 5-10 205 Charlotte transfer, Micah Bell, operating as Wooten's backup against North Alabama AND True FR, 6-0 210, Tyrell Coard showed A LOT of POWER and burst in just 2 carries for 32 yards and a TD against Morehead and even in his 5 carries @ Ole Miss.
Also, Air Force Transfer, JR Parker Wroble, who is only 5-10 185, has been getting a good many carries from both his normal Slot/Wing (used to be called "Joker") position, but also from the RB spot. Though small in stature, he hits the hole quickly and with some power.
Add in Peevy ... a more powerful and fleet, if less elusive, runner than Fred Payton, and, of course the dangerous Jet Sweeps of Devron Harper, and you have a full picture of the Bear's current rushing attack
Bottom Line....Mercer's Running Game was headed toward the toilet tank when Furman played Mercer in 2022. After re-tooling, the Bear's rushing attack seems to be on an upward trend (despite the stats) as this point in 2023. Of course, that doesn't mean they couldn't be at exactly the same place they were in November of 2022...but the trend line is, for now, pointing in the other direction.
I wonder if we are going to try a zone ...maybe tampa 2 to help fix the deep pass vulnerability...we have to do something or we will continue to give up these long passes.....clearly we havent fixed the problem yet and opponents know that....
Mercer Press Conference - Furman Week - Head Coach Drew Cronic; Gr. Safety Richie Coffey; and Sr. WR Ty James
(streamed … think that’s maybe why it won’t embed … ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
https://www.youtube.com/live/Tg3HYjcjS6Y?feature=shared
(streamed … think that’s maybe why it won’t embed … ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
https://www.youtube.com/live/Tg3HYjcjS6Y?feature=shared
Last edited by FUBeAR on Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers,
For he today who sheds his blood with me shall be my brother
For he today who sheds his blood with me shall be my brother
Furman v Mercer notes out
https://furmanpaladins.com/documents/20 ... _Stats.pdf
https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... _Stats.pdf
If they are right on … Johanning is playing RG. Which means our 3 best OL are probably Johanning at RG. Toomey at LT. And Hughes at Center. At least by accolades and exp at Furman specifically. I have seen us get beat on pass pro at RT a few times which killed some plays. Need to shore that up but mainly have a OL push for a strong run game. A 5 yard per carry run game would solve a LOT of problems!
Also Cook 99 left the last game (NG) but is listed
HUGE GAME. Not saying next one is a given but…. Get this we are probably to 4-1 headed to Samford.
Stop the Mercer rush game. Make them one dimensional.
PLEASE stop the deep routes. Jam em at the LOS. get to the QB!. Something.. Something has to change on deep pass coverage. We have as good a set of players as I recall. Interestingly the Defensive backfield is THE most experienced group we have. More than OL DL WRs etc. No one has the aggregate number of starts as our Corners and Safeties. Not close. Blackshear! Brinson. Ryan. Tons of experience and quality. We aren’t helping them with lack of QB pressure. But some routes people are wide open
By the way, the bottom of first page of game notes need to change to ‘streak’ vs ksu is W1. Not L1.
https://furmanpaladins.com/documents/20 ... _Stats.pdf
https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... _Stats.pdf
If they are right on … Johanning is playing RG. Which means our 3 best OL are probably Johanning at RG. Toomey at LT. And Hughes at Center. At least by accolades and exp at Furman specifically. I have seen us get beat on pass pro at RT a few times which killed some plays. Need to shore that up but mainly have a OL push for a strong run game. A 5 yard per carry run game would solve a LOT of problems!
Also Cook 99 left the last game (NG) but is listed
HUGE GAME. Not saying next one is a given but…. Get this we are probably to 4-1 headed to Samford.
Stop the Mercer rush game. Make them one dimensional.
PLEASE stop the deep routes. Jam em at the LOS. get to the QB!. Something.. Something has to change on deep pass coverage. We have as good a set of players as I recall. Interestingly the Defensive backfield is THE most experienced group we have. More than OL DL WRs etc. No one has the aggregate number of starts as our Corners and Safeties. Not close. Blackshear! Brinson. Ryan. Tons of experience and quality. We aren’t helping them with lack of QB pressure. But some routes people are wide open
By the way, the bottom of first page of game notes need to change to ‘streak’ vs ksu is W1. Not L1.