The Jackal wrote: ↑Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:03 am
While I don't like using the term "must win" if it isn't a must win game, this is probably a close one. If we are playing only 10 games, Furman has little room to mess around, and especially not in a conference game we are favored to win.
ETSU has some new faces. They have a new coaching staff and a transfer QB from Temple.
Doing a quick scan, they're currently 2-1. They beat D2 Mars Hill and VMI. They were trounced by Tennessee. They really have not looked particularly good (of course, neither has Furman).
In game 1, ETSU took a 14-7 lead against a bad D2 at home into the fourth quarter. Mars Hill is currently 0-3, having lost to ETSU, and then being soundly thumped by both Shaw and Lenior Rhyne.
Seeing the ETSU result, I thought maybe VMI was better than I expected. They really aren't. They turned the ball over a bunch and looked incredibly slow on film. I still am sticking with my prediction that VMI will go winless this year.
Offensively, the Bucs look like they run an offense similar to what we saw in Elon (and really Colgate, too). Single back, multi-receiver looks out of the shotgun. They try for balance, averaging roughly 170 ypg passing and rushing. Like Furman, they've coughed the ball up a bunch this season.
The QB has a big arm. He's thrown a bunch of picks this season, and is under 50% completions, but he can launch them downfield. He is their third leading rusher, so he will tuck it and go pretty routinely.
Defensively, they aren't terrible. They've surrendered only 58 ypg on the ground. Of course, two of the three teams they've played this season have been pretty weak, so that may explain the numbers a bit.
I think Furman is favored here. Probably heavily favored. The Paladins have handled ETSU the last two seasons. However, the Bucs seemingly every year surprise a team in Johnson City. Last year they upset Mercer. In 2016, they knocked off a ranked Samford team. We need a clean game and put that Elon contest in the rearview.
