Game 4 - Mercer

[gofurman]

The line is Furman -9.5

Considering that the margin of victory in this series has been 5,7,3,7 and 5, a spread of 9.5 is a pretty big vote of confidence in our relative performances....



Furman

Charleston So W 46-13 - Hung with a good NC A&T team last week before falling 27-21
Ga State L 48-42 - beat Tenn but then laid an egg at Western Michigan, the D gave up 1mm yards
Va Tech L 24-17 - Lost to BC, dominated Old Dominion (won 31-17 despite being -2 TO ratio)

Mercer

Western Car W 49-27 - WCU barely squeaked by D2 NGU last week 20-17
Presby W 45-7 - PC fell to Jacksonville (not state) 30-20
Austin Peay L 48-34 - lost a good game to #9 UCA and trounced a weak NC Central team

Agree. Few notes.

I am almost sure Western had T. Adams and the OL and DL when Mercer beat them? I think that was the one game he played in so that’s not really the same D2 type team as lately. That was a far better Wcu team that Mercer beat.

Also Charleston So did v well vs NC A&T. But man they got blown azs out by an only ok SEC USC. lost by like 60 in a joke. I know Furman woulda done way better

Va Tech did lose to BC but had -4 turnover ratio telling me they really are better than BC. What’s that all mean? Not very sure

[paladinduece]

Austin Peay is a pretty dang good team and it should raise some eyebrows they were able to post that many points with the turnovers and defensive scores by AP. That being said I don't think they have the patience that we do offensively, nor the balance. Also I am hoping this is the game Grainger has more run/pass options by moving the pocket. The game should slow down for him a bit this week also. We have the ability to grind the clock and as always if we can get them in second and long forcing the pass early we can open up a can, and bring the house. I like everything about this team so far from a growth and potential standpoint. I really think we are poised to have a great run the next few years as recruiting continues to be strong and the amount of youth with experience we have. Grainger as a redshirt senior is an awesome thought. Concerns are our tempo offense when it is needed. I have yet to see the ability to run a two minute scenario. Saturday we burned two plays worth of time to run one waiting for the sideline to get the call in. Also no urgency from the players to get aligned. Hopefully we can do that if needed, and I am sure GQ is fully aware and has it covered. I saw some improved physicality from the defense last week. Gilby plays physical and seems to be instinctual finding the football, but there are some positions we are lacking that for now. Part is youth and inexperience and part is scheme to probably protect some of that youth and inexperience. Love the way 11 plays corner. Blackshear doesn't play scared, and blowing up that screen the way he did showed me something about his aggressiveness. I want to see an assassin develop from the secondary. (safety) Somebody who can get downhill in run support and ability to blitz if called on, and makes receivers and backs think about going over the middle or hitting the hole. According to some players there might be some youth to fit that bill in the near future. I know they are ticked about 1-2, but that is behind us and I see a real chance to be special moving forward. Coaches have done a great job along with the players. You can tell they have put in the time during the off season and seem to be hungry. Lets run the table! FU

[DeepPurple]

I like the team in Purple. Period.

[gofurman]

Austin Peay is a pretty dang good team and it should raise some eyebrows they (Mercer) were able to post that many points with the turnovers and defensive scores by AP. That being said I don't think they have the patience that we do offensively, nor the balance. Also I am hoping this is the game Grainger has more run/pass options by moving the pocket. The game should slow down for him a bit this week also. We have the ability to grind the clock and as always if we can get them in second and long forcing the pass early we can open up a can, and bring the house. I like everything about this team so far from a growth and potential standpoint. I really think we are poised to have a great run the next few years as recruiting continues to be strong and the amount of youth with experience we have. Grainger as a redshirt senior is an awesome thought. Concerns are our tempo offense when it is needed. I have yet to see the ability to run a two minute scenario. Saturday we burned two plays worth of time to run one waiting for the sideline to get the call in. Also no urgency from the players to get aligned. Hopefully we can do that if needed, and I am sure GQ is fully aware and has it covered. I saw some improved physicality from the defense last week. Gilby plays physical and seems to be instinctual finding the football, but there are some positions we are lacking that for now. Part is youth and inexperience and part is scheme to probably protect some of that youth and inexperience. Love the way 11 plays corner. Blackshear doesn't play scared, and blowing up that screen the way he did showed me something about his aggressiveness. I want to see an assassin develop from the secondary. (safety) Somebody who can get downhill in run support and ability to blitz if called on, and makes receivers and backs think about going over the middle or hitting the hole. According to some players there might be some youth to fit that bill in the near future. I know they are ticked about 1-2, but that is behind us and I see a real chance to be special moving forward. Coaches have done a great job along with the players. You can tell they have put in the time during the off season and seem to be hungry. Lets run the table! FU

Great post. I love it. Your very first sentence was exactly my thought watching that game. That’s where I have been coming from. APeay is top 25 ish and despite a basic - FOUR turnover ratio , which should result in a blowout, Mercer still scored 34!!! - 4/ turnover ratio vs top 25ish you would guess Mercer lost by 20+ easy. But they just kept scoring. I also agree about putting grainier on the edge w run or pass options - we saw first hand how that threat kept our D from blitzing vs GSU. It would be odd not to use him the same way now that it’s conference football and time to not hold back. We need to win. Agree on urgency. With our experienced OL we should be able to correct that. Two of our lesser stanzas have been exactly that - the last plays at GSU and end of half at VT. Time was lost.. and yes, I think we need to blitz to help w youth (talent but young) in secondary. Of course if Weems plays we aren’t young at all in secondary @ weems trapp and okeh are all seniors! Even without weems that’s two,seniors out of four DB. Not really all that young.

All that is just my worthless thoughts... I am super excited about our youth too but really THIS year for now. We are a vastly improved team

[Paul C]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

[gofurman]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

Paul, Literally you are right. They blocked a punt too. I was counting the punt block that gave a 25 yard short field as a the 4th turnover

[apaladin]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

You are correct oh wise one:
First 3 quarters:
Riddle 11-28 129 yds. 2 TD's 1 Int.
4th Quarter:
Riddle 18-21 158 yds. 2 TD's 1 Int.

[gofurman]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

You are correct oh wise one:
First 3 quarters:
Riddle 11-28 129 yds. 2 TD's 1 Int.
4th Quarter:
Riddle 18-21 158 yds. 2 TD's 1 Int.

You should=Never doubt that PaulC is wiser than me.. .or that anyone is wiser than me. LOL

[The Jackal]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

Roughly half of Mercer's yardage came in the fourth quarter.

[DungeonRealm]

[bj93]

The disconcerting part is that what Peay did in the 4th qtr "sitting back in zone and not wanting to give up a quick score" is what FU does the entire game.

[The Jackal]

The disconcerting part is that what Peay did in the 4th qtr "sitting back in zone and not wanting to give up a quick score" is what FU does the entire game.

I swear this line of argument is going to drive me off the deep end.

Here are VT's passing stats from Saturday.

PASSING
Total (Net) 123
Comp.-Att.-Int.: 17-21-1
Avg. / Att. 5.9
Avg. / Comp. 7.2
TDs 1

That doesn't even include 4 sacks.

If folks want to criticize the pass defense, that's fine. Just don't criticize the pass defense against Georgia State and completely ignore the overwhelming job Furman did against the Hokies.

[The Jackal]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

I watched most (all?) of the game between APSU and Mercer. These are my takeaways:

1. Mercer couldn't run the ball. At all. Most of Devezin's yards came on 1 run (21 yards). By all accounts, AP has a very strong run defense.

2. Robert Riddle was hit a bunch. APSU was formally credited with 1 sack, but they seemed to hit Riddle every time he dropped back to throw.

3. Given points 1 and 2 above, I can only assume that Saturday was not a banner day for Mercer's offensive line.

4. With no run game and little time to throw, most of Mercer's offense ended up being quick outs/curls/hitches/screens to the WRs, RBs, and TEs. Late in the game, APSU was starting to jump all over those routes knowing the Bears didn't have time to go over their heads.

5. Lamb said in his presser that David Durden played in 82 plays excluding special teams. The stat sheet shows that Mercer only ran 78 plays. Regardless, he plays a bunch.

6. Durden's touchdown catch was really impressive. There was nothing wrong with the defensive positioning on that play. The ball well could have been intercepted. Just an outstanding play by Durden.

7. It's hard for any team to overcome two non-offensive touchdowns and a near third one.

8. Defensively, APSU was very aggressive. They were right up in Mercer's face and, I think, knew that they had a matchup advantage out there. I don't know where our defense compares with the Governors' defense, but it certainly worked.

9. Austin Peay really isn't anything special on offense. They've got a few impressive players, but so does everyone. I think we are a much better offensive football team than they are.

10. If I am game planning for Saturday, you know that Mercer has to get its running game going. Mercer spent a lot of time with its TE flexed out wide (see play above), but it wouldn't shock me to see them bring the TE back inside as an H-back to try and get an extra blocker in there.

11. Mercer is plenty dangerous and thrives on big plays. They have three guys (Riddle, Devezin, and Durden) that carry most of the water. On Saturday, even subtracting the fact that Riddle takes every snap, those three accounted for roughly half of all of Mercer's offensive production between Riddle and Devezin running and throws targeting Durden. They try to put the ball in the hands of their biggest playmakers as often as possible. The defense has to try to eliminate at least one of those guys (APSU eliminated Devezin).

12. Offensively, we need to play the type of offensive football we are capable of. Mercer is solid, but not overwhelming defensively. Same thing every week - take care of the ball and run hard.

[gofurman]

The disconcerting part is that what Peay did in the 4th qtr "sitting back in zone and not wanting to give up a quick score" is what FU does the entire game.

This. And I do indeed get Jackals points. He makes some strong points but we are known for being less aggressive than most teams in pass D. We just are. I get the ‘jump the routes because of pressure on QB’ thing. I’ll get back to that. Just saying if we win this I’ll feel a lot better about where we are- esp if we win w good pass D and sacks

[gofurman]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

I watched most (all?) of the game between APSU and Mercer. These are my takeaways:

1. Mercer couldn't run the ball. At all. Most of Devezin's yards came on 1 run (21 yards). By all accounts, AP has a very strong run defense.

2. Robert Riddle was hit a bunch. APSU was formally credited with 1 sack, but they seemed to hit Riddle every time he dropped back to throw.

3. Given points 1 and 2 above, I can only assume that Saturday was not a banner day for Mercer's offensive line.

4. With no run game and little time to throw, most of Mercer's offense ended up being quick outs/curls/hitches/screens to the WRs, RBs, and TEs. Late in the game, APSU was starting to jump all over those routes knowing the Bears didn't have time to go over their heads.

5. Lamb said in his presser that David Durden played in 82 plays excluding special teams. The stat sheet shows that Mercer only ran 78 plays. Regardless, he plays a bunch.

6. Durden's touchdown catch was really impressive. There was nothing wrong with the defensive positioning on that play. The ball well could have been intercepted. Just an outstanding play by Durden.

7. It's hard for any team to overcome two non-offensive touchdowns and a near third one.

8. Defensively, APSU was very aggressive. They were right up in Mercer's face and, I think, knew that they had a matchup advantage out there. I don't know where our defense compares with the Governors' defense, but it certainly worked.

9. Austin Peay really isn't anything special on offense. They've got a few impressive players, but so does everyone. I think we are a much better offensive football team than they are.

10. If I am game planning for Saturday, you know that Mercer has to get its running game going. Mercer spent a lot of time with its TE flexed out wide (see play above), but it wouldn't shock me to see them bring the TE back inside as an H-back to try and get an extra blocker in there.

11. Mercer is plenty dangerous and thrives on big plays. They have three guys (Riddle, Devezin, and Durden) that carry most of the water. On Saturday, even subtracting the fact that Riddle takes every snap, those three accounted for roughly half of all of Mercer's offensive production between Riddle and Devezin running and throws targeting Durden. They try to put the ball in the hands of their biggest playmakers as often as possible. The defense has to try to eliminate at least one of those guys (APSU eliminated Devezin).

12. Offensively, we need to play the type of offensive football we are capable of. Mercer is solid, but not overwhelming defensively. Same thing every week - take care of the ball and run hard.

Point 1. I hope we can run D as well as AP did. As you note they have a strong run D with at least one nasty DL I noticed a big boy in middle which isn’t our strength. You know the Jaylan Reid type. Our strength is DE / LBs in front 7

Point 3. I noticed the same. I hope we send heat and can stop the run - Both. Stopping Devezin and hitting Riddle was the basis of AP D and thus allowed them to feel safe w their coverage. Last year Devezin ran all over us ( 30 rushes for 180+ yards !!!). Can we scheme different or do we have better front 7 than last year when he got several nice runs ? I do feel part of beating Mercer was AP run D really is strong. I mean we had most of these same front 7 AND jaylan Reid and gave Devezin 6 yards a carry all day long. He KILLED us in 2018. So I wonder if Austin P doesn’t have a superb run D? Before people say Austin Peay? They are different now. SEC and Juco transfers everywhere.

6. Durden is very impressive. Very. I haven’t seen many recvrs in SoCon who go and just get the ball like he does. Watch the video by Jackal. He was like that all night

8. Right. Austin Peay was aggressive. I honestly doubt we play that aggressive in the backfield - look at the lineup in that one play by Austin Peay that Jackla included. I rarely see us go that hard w man coverage

9. I agree we are probably a better offensive team than AP. It’s the D they ran vs Mercer I wonder if we can or will replicate. But I have big faith in our offense !!!