SoCon Title/Playoffs

[FUBeAR]

Mercer, having worked so hard for their first playoff bid, potentially gets a plane ticket to Grand Forks, North Dakota. If they survive UND, they get an early December road game as Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Would probably be glad to have it, though.

If the playoff bracket ends up that way, Mercer probably needs to mortgage the farm to get that first game in Macon. Those back to back road games would be brutal.

IF Mercer is good enough, plays well enough, and is fortunate enough to beat the bellhops, beat Samford, and then not get reamed by the Committee, FUBeAR would be shocked, shocked he tells you, if they didn’t bid enough to ensure a 1st round home game. Heck, if the Bears need to resurrect Gregg AND Duane Allman to sing the National Anthem AND perform the Halftime Show, that could very well be on the table.

[gofurman]

Don't repeat this... ever... but I am with FUBeAR. No 7-4 SOCON team will make it. At the same time, I think this year any 8+ win team will make it. To get 4, UTC has to beat you guys. So we'll have as many as 4 (UTC as the auto-bid at 8-3, Furman still possibly seeded at 9-2, and Mercer and WCU at 8-3), or as few as 2 (Furman at a very high seed and 10-1, and either Mercer or WCU if only one of them gets to 8 wins). I am hopeful we have at least 3 in.

Mercer has 2 FCS losses, both to ranked SOCON teams. WCU has 2 FCS losses, both to now ranked SOCON teams (and both with our best player out). UTC has 2 FCS losses (1 that is hard to explain in game #1 and then a 2-point, last-second loss to a highly ranked SOCON team). And of course Furman has 0 FCS losses. That sounds a lot like the top beating up on each other and similar to all the talk about the other top leagues. Throw in a dangerous Samford team in the #5 slot and that is a pretty strong lineup. If Samford also beats UT-M in the last game, that will help the SOCON's cause, too. But I still don't see the committee giving a 7-4 SOCON team the nod over a bunch of other 7-4 type teams from the MVFC or any of the 8-win teams.

FUBeAR has learned, whether or not it's 100% accurate - that who you beat is more important than who you lose to.

At present, these are (or will be) each 'candidate's' best wins...

1) Furman - WCU, Mercer, UTC (assumptively) - All solid, none stellar, but taken together, substantial enough
2) Mercer - WCU (at 8-3 (assumptively) and ranked in the Top 15 (most likely) and 'then-ranked' #9, this is a solid best win
3) UTC - Furman (but probably not, assumptively), so...Mercer (meh, then-ranked ORV and probably no higher than #20 on Selection Day)
4) WCU - UTC (at 7-4 (assumptively) and possibly unranked, this is NOT a great best win)

This doesn't mean too much when comparing against each other, but when comparing to PERCEPTIONS of "best wins" by Big Sky and MVFC At-Large Candidates, it will matter.

FUBeAR, completely agree. Heck I could personally (by myself) lose to Alabama. But I could not beat anyone. So when teams beat weak teams and say “we then lost to great top 15 X and top 20 y”. Well that’s good but WHO. DID. YOU. BEAT?

A close loss to a top ten team is worth something if you are 9-2. And the other is FBS loss. But if someone goes 7-4 and beats 7 moderate teams and loses to an FBS and to 3 top 25 teams … I mean they 3 shots and didn’t win a single one. You have to beat someone decent

[Sad Din]

SoCon Champs! Yea baby....!! They earned this one.

SD hopes the bus drivers dont mine some noise while driving!

[Sad Din]

https://x.com/NCAA_FCS/status/1720908584228094378?s=20

[FUBeAR]

https://x.com/NCAA_FCS/status/1720908584228094378?s=20

[Davemeister]

Kinda makes you want to wear Purple.

[The Jackal]

Furman (8-1, 6-0): VMI, @ Wofford

Furman is In the playoffs as SoCon's auto bid. The Paladins are still in line for a top 4 seed and have two winnable games on the horizon. If everything goes well, Furman may not need to leave the upstate for a football game in a good long bit.

UTC (7-3, 6-2): Bye, @ Bama

Mocs are done with SoCon play, but will have to wait out the committee. The end of the season will check the Mocs mental fortitude with an emotional loss, bye week, then Alabama before selection Sunday.

UTC can point to a win over Mercer, but lost close games (both at home) to WCU and Furman. The opening loss to UNA will probably come back to haunt them. Even holding the tie breaker over Mercer, there's a good shot the Bears get to 8 wins and also have a win over UNA, who beat UTC. They are likely the 4th SoCon team in the running and might get in depending on the bubble.

Mercer (7-3, 5-2): Samford, Bye

Bears can get to 8 wins with a victory against Samford. Samford ended the Bears playoff dreams last season. Win that one and it'd be had to leave out an 8 win Bears team.

WCU (6-3, 4-2): ETSU, @ VMI

Catamounts avoided absolute disaster against Wofford. Win both of their last two, and they should feel comfortable on selection Sunday. Go 1-1 and it may well be a toss up.

Cats should be favored in both games, but no one likes a road game in Lexington.

Samford (5-4, 4-3): @ Mercer, UT-M

Could the Bulldogs, who were dead and buried a few weeks ago, make a run at the playoffs?

Samford has a unique advantage of having two ranked teams at the end of the season. If they beat Mercer and beat UT-M, two likely playoff teams, they'd have a pretty solid resume as a 7-4 bubble team.

It'd be hard to put a 7-4 Samford in over a 7-4 UTC, but if it falls out this way, Samford would finish behind UTC in the standings, lost head to head, but may have arguably the more impressive wins.

[gofurman]

Furman (8-1, 6-0): VMI, @ Wofford

Furman is In the playoffs as SoCon's auto bid. The Paladins are still in line for a top 4 seed and have two winnable games on the horizon. If everything goes well, Furman may not need to leave the upstate for a football game in a good long bit.

UTC (7-3, 6-2): Bye, @ Bama

Mocs are done with SoCon play, but will have to wait out the committee. The end of the season will check the Mocs mental fortitude with an emotional loss, bye week, then Alabama before selection Sunday.

UTC can point to a win over Mercer, but lost close games (both at home) to WCU and Furman. The opening loss to UNA will probably come back to haunt them. Even holding the tie breaker over Mercer, there's a good shot the Bears get to 8 wins and also have a win over UNA, who beat UTC. They are likely the 4th SoCon team in the running and might get in depending on the bubble.

Mercer (7-3, 5-2): Samford, Bye

Bears can get to 8 wins with a victory against Samford. Samford ended the Bears playoff dreams last season. Win that one and it'd be had to leave out an 8 win Bears team.

WCU (6-3, 4-2): ETSU, @ VMI

Catamounts avoided absolute disaster against Wofford. Win both of their last two, and they should feel comfortable on selection Sunday. Go 1-1 and it may well be a toss up.

Cats should be favored in both games, but no one likes a road game in Lexington.

Samford (5-4, 4-3): @ Mercer, UT-M

Could the Bulldogs, who were dead and buried a few weeks ago, make a run at the playoffs?

Samford has a unique advantage of having two ranked teams at the end of the season. If they beat Mercer and beat UT-M, two likely playoff teams, they'd have a pretty solid resume as a 7-4 bubble team.

It'd be hard to put a 7-4 Samford in over a 7-4 UTC, but if it falls out this way, Samford would finish behind UTC in the standings, lost head to head, but may have arguably the more impressive wins.

Interesting that. 1. Mercer plays Sammy yet again with a possibly playoff bud on the line 2). If Mercer wins they get a bye before playoffs. Weird

[FUBeAR]

In order to avoid flying on 3 different pontoon planes, chartering a Coast Guard Ice Breaker, and mushing a Team of Huskies the rest of the way in at some point in these Playoffs, this week, we need to…

1) Be excellent Furman Fans - expertly managing our mojo throwing to ensure a win over these very rapidly improving hippity-hoppers!

2) Be BIG fans of 6-3 Youngstown State as the Penguins host South Dakota State in their Ice Castle or Igloo or whatever frigid name they call it.

3) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Eastern Washington as the Eagles fly, ice break, and mush their way into Bozeman, MT to face Montana State

4) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Portland State as the Vikings host the Vandals of Idaho in a clash of peoples native to lands above the Arctic Circle in a desolate wasteland of a formerly great city

5) Be BIG fans of 6-3 North Dakota as the Freezin’ Hawks fly to the misnamed non-Southern land of South Dakota to face the Coyotes in a standoff of Arctic scavengers.

And … also fans of whichever other Teams are facing Teams that the National FCS Media Pundits might start pimping to take a Top 2 Seed that rightly should belong to a 10-0 in FCS Furman Team if we TCB. The ‘fix’ is already in as the FCS Media Pundits have created a #2 Seed ‘lockout’ with their rankings of MT, MTSt, and ID ahead of Furman…unless some of these non-contenders pull off upsets for us.

DO YOUR JOBS!!!

[gofurman]

In order to avoid flying on 3 different pontoon planes, chartering a Coast Guard Ice Breaker, and mushing a Team of Huskies the rest of the way in at some point in these Playoffs, this week, we need to…

1) Be excellent Furman Fans - expertly managing our mojo throwing to ensure a win over these very rapidly improving hippity-hoppers!

2) Be BIG fans of 6-3 Youngstown State as the Penguins host South Dakota State in their Ice Castle or Igloo or whatever frigid name they call it.

3) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Eastern Washington as the Eagles fly, ice break, and mush their way into Bozeman, MT to face Montana State

4) Be BIG fans of 4-5 Portland State as the Vikings host the Vandals of Idaho in a clash of peoples native to lands above the Arctic Circle in a desolate wasteland of a formerly great city

5) Be BIG fans of 6-3 North Dakota as the Freezin’ Hawks fly to the misnamed non-Southern land of South Dakota to face the Coyotes in a standoff of Arctic scavengers.

And … also fans of whichever other Teams are facing Teams that the National FCS Media Pundits might start pimping to take a Top 2 Seed that rightly should belong to a 10-0 in FCS Furman Team if we TCB. The ‘fix’ is already in as the FCS Media Pundits have created a #2 Seed ‘lockout’ with their rankings of MT, MTSt, and ID ahead of Furman…unless some of these non-contenders pull off upsets for us.

DO YOUR JOBS!!!

I thought the STATS poll was THE POLL. Is that wrong?

Aren't we number 2 in that poll ?

Oh, I guess it is the committee where #6/8 Montana State (other polls) is somehow moved up to number 2 dropping us to number 3?? I guess that is the one that matters?

Look it is GREAT! to be so relevant again. so awesome !!!!!!!!!! But we know you have to start in the polls to get a good ranking... and this makes (Montana State thing) makes me wonder about an additional need to blow out a few teams like Citadel or ETSU... to "look good" instead of 16-8 vs ETSU. I wonder if they hold that against us. If I haven't seen anything but scores I could see that happening "these guys just escape every week". Right or wrong it is a thing.

[The Jackal]

The Stats poll is the poll that the committee looks to.

The concern for Furman, who keeps winning, is that some of these Big Sky teams win "sexier." It's hard, though, to subjectively compare Furman with the Big Sky teams because they don't remotely play the same teams.

[Sad Din]

pretty much says it all....

https://x.com/luke44clark/status/172151 ... 83575?s=20

[FUBeAR]

Some of you media / marketing / interweb types - you know who you are...please weigh in with your thoughts on the ideas FUBeAR espouses below

FUBeAR, a cynical biz major, thinks its always wise to consider or 'follow the money'

In the media biz these days - Clicks = $'s

> Clicks = > $'s

Montana has one of the largest fan bases in FCS Football. Montana State is right there with them Griz and the Idaho Vandals are a former FBS Team. They are also all 'blue bloods' (as Furman was or is depending on your perspective) of FCS. They are known names and people follow these Teams. Early this season, Sam Herder talked on his podcast about being able to see where his listeners are located and that he gets hardly any from the South.

FUBeAR did an extensive study this summer on Playoff Seeding and how significant the Seeds were to projecting success in the playoffs. Not sure this study would've passed muster for a Doctorate in Statistics, but it was good enough for gub-mint work. He found it HIGHLY CORRELATED, well beyond the "of course they win, they are better, so they are seeded higher" level.

Keeping a Montana at Home for every round of the Playoffs helps them win those games and helps to keep them playing for as many as 5 more weeks....lotta clicks happen in 5 weeks

Won't bore you further...

Bottom Line - FUBeAR believes the FCS Media does everything they can to 'shape the battlefield' to get the 'bigger' Teams IN the Playoffs, to get them Seeded, and to get them more Highly Seeded. It is in their economic interests to do so.

And FUBeAR feels the entire body of their work is prevalent and pervasive.

And, FUBeAR believes the Committee's decisions are HIGHLY affected by the narratives of the FCS Media.

[The Jackal]

Furman holds at #2, but in terms of points, it's close with these Big Sky teams.

I think the national media seems content to let Furman stay at #2 as long as we keep winning.

[FU Hoopla]

Furman holds at #2, but in terms of points, it's close with these Big Sky teams.

I think the national media seems content to let Furman stay at #2 as long as we keep winning.

I mean damn, Montana did lose to Northern Arizona who is now 3-6, if pollsters can't penalize them for that and at least keep them behind us then wtf lol