CONCERNS

[apaladin]

Offense: I think we were all expecting a juggernaut of an offense but that has not materialized. We have yet to have a 400 yd game against some questionable opponents. Ok let’s just say it, 3 really bad teams that are now 1-15 combined.
Our QB is the top rusher which is not good. Our #1 RB is averaging less than 4 ypc and has not come close to a 100 yd game and his longest run has been 14 yds. We have a lot of pass catchers, maybe too many. Our top receiver is averaging 4 a game. Miller caught 13 passes against CU last year. We only have two receivers with more than 13 catches(20 & 14) in 5 games this year. Still looking for that go to receiver. CCH has talked about the lack of explosion plays. They come few and far between. Seems like we have gone away from testing people deep. One time yesterday and it was wide open, but just missed it. Outside of Huff, long runs are basically non-existent. No explosion plays against Citadel is not good. The OL which was supposed to be the strong point but has underperformed for the most part. Example, failing on fourth and one against Citadel. All of this again is against some mostly bad competition, even if you add Mercer into the FCS competition the overall record is still just 5-17. On the good side is we have been able to score points and win all the FCS games but the next 2 weeks are goung to be against much better teams. The offense has got to get better if this team is going to accomplish any goals.
Defense: The run defense has been excellent all year. The pass defense/pass rush not so much. Even the worst teams have had their best days passing against FU. I think the most glaring weakness is the pass rush. Credited with only 6 sacks all year. 2 of those were only for one yard so basically we have only gotten to the QB 4 times in 200 attempts. Citadel threw 34 times and we had zero sacks. Here are some telling stats:
TTU vs FU 26 completiond 212 yds 62%
TTU vs other FCS Avg: 12 completions 139 yds 47%
KSU vs. FU 17 completiins, 308 yds, 55%
KSU vs. other FCS Avg: 10 completions, 122 yds, 46%
Citadel vs. FU 19 completions 239 yds, 56%
Citadel vs. other FCS Avg: 12 completions 126 yds 68%
Mercer would also had their best passing game againt FU except yesterday they had a big passing day because they coukd not run the ball againt ETSU.
I think we all know the next 2 weeks will be a big test for the pass defense but the bad news is both Samford and WCU can and do run the ball. For example yesterday Samford threw 44 times and ran 43 times. Gonna be a big test for the defense both running and passing. The offense will need to help the defense a lot by keeping the ball and moving it. The offense will need to put it in the next gear to be successful the next 2 weeks.

[The Jackal]

Perhaps the fans expected a bit more explosiveness.

At the same time, Furman's averaging over 32 points per game, which is top 25 nationally.

At this point last season, Furman still hadn't scored 30 points on a D1 opponent. The first non-North Greenville team they managed to hit the 30 point mark against was Western Carolina in mid-October.

So, as of now, the offense is better than the unit last year. That includes a team that has had injuries at OL and RB to start the season and without an all-time program leading receiver.

On a positive note, Furman is 4-1, has a top 25 offense, and most of us are a bit disappointed it hasn't looked as explosive as we thought it would. If this offense starts clicking like it did last season, we'll be in business.

[Bootie]

I give our pessimistic friends a little grief but I feel a bit of what you’re saying, ap. We’ve got some good teams yet to face, and there’s potential we could lose one or more of those games. We certainly aren’t invincible, and it would be foolish to think so, even if we were obliterating all our opponents. But teams evolve over the course of the season and I think this team will continue to get better. I love that CCH is ours and I’ll be content to trust him and live with whatever happens. My M.O. is simply to let it all play out and enjoy the competition and excitement, win or lose.

CCH has built a great program. We are respected again nationally, recruiting is easier because of that than it would be, we went deep in the playoffs last year, have a great ranking so far that will certainly help if we do have a loss, had the biggest crowd at home Saturday that we’ve had in a long time, etc…. These are good times. I hope you won’t get so wrapped up in trying to predict the future that you miss the enjoyment of the present moment.

[jesse174]

Same here..expectations are high and CCH has recruited well...so naturally we are expected to win easily...but there is the guy on the other side of the ball that has something to say about all this..and knows our tendencies and weaknesses on offense and defense. I think we need to be better with our offensive scheme and understand that they know we want to run the ball..we had a similar problem last year with teams packing the box on us...so be creative and play to our strength...we are strong for 4 quarters and have depth...more that most teams in our division. We are good enough to beat most teams in our division so be creative , patient and don't turn the ball over..

[gofurman]

I give our pessimistic friends a little grief but I feel a bit of what you’re saying, ap. We’ve got some good teams yet to face, and there’s potential we could lose one or more of those games. We certainly aren’t invincible, and it would be foolish to think so, even if we were obliterating all our opponents. But teams evolve over the course of the season and I think this team will continue to get better. I love that CCH is ours and I’ll be content to trust him and live with whatever happens. My M.O. is simply to let it all play out and enjoy the competition and excitement, win or lose.

CCH has built a great program. We are respected again nationally, recruiting is easier because of that than it would be, we went deep in the playoffs last year, have a great ranking so far that will certainly help if we do have a loss, had the biggest crowd at home Saturday that we’ve had in a long time, etc…. These are good times. I hope you won’t get so wrapped up in trying to predict the future that you miss the enjoyment of the present moment.

Bootie, I really like that you posted this. Because I feel AP did his homework and brought some strong data points:

TTU vs FU 26 completiond 212 yds 62%
TTU vs other FCS Avg: 12 completions 139 yds 47%
KSU vs. FU 17 completiins, 308 yds, 55%
KSU vs. other FCS Avg: 10 completions, 122 yds, 46%
Citadel vs. FU 19 completions 239 yds, 56%
Citadel vs. other FCS Avg: 12 completions 126 yds 68%
Mercer would also had their best passing game againt FU except yesterday they had a big passing day because they could not run the ball againt ETSU.


That says something. Bootie, I also get your point. Enjoy the moment. Great point !!!!! Great way to approach life

I just want the best for FU and see the potential this year. That’s all. I am truly concerned after watching WCU V UTC. They can both light it up and score in a minute. But I think Samford is underrated and better than Mercer ….

I see WCU. UTC
Samford
Mercer.
———-
VMI
Wofford
ETSU
Citadel

Samford will be a big test. We better man up and run the ball and hit a few 20 yard passes

[The Jackal]

I mean, sure, but there's some context that is completely absent from the raw numbers.

For instance, you fail to mention that Tennessee Tech attempted 42 passes and averaged only 5 yards an attempt while trailing the entire game. You also fail to mention that 3 of those 42 attempts were picked off and 2 were returned for touchdowns. It's wild to me to criticize pass defense when the defense scored more touchdowns on passing plays than the opposing offense did.

The Citadel rushed for 39 yards and 1.8 yards per carry. What did you want them to do? Their longest pass play was a effectively a trick play. Picked them off twice and had another one or two that should have been picked. Could we have tightened up late in the game? Sure.

The Mercer numbers are not "strong data points." In fact, they aren't even correct. Mercer threw for more yards against ETSU (317), Morehead State (268), and Ole Miss (142) than they did against Furman.

Mercer passed for whopping 123 yards, 58 of which came on two plays right before half time to an All American wide receiver. Other than those two throws, the Bear's offense had a 65 passing yards the rest of the game (despite trailing the entire contest). I have no idea why anyone would complain about our defensive effort against Mercer.

[apaladin]

I mean, sure, but there's some context that is completely absent from the raw numbers.

For instance, you fail to mention that Tennessee Tech attempted 42 passes and averaged only 5 yards an attempt while trailing the entire game. You also fail to mention that 3 of those 42 attempts were picked off and 2 were returned for touchdowns. It's wild to me to criticize pass defense when the defense scored more touchdowns on passing plays than the opposing offense did.

The Citadel rushed for 39 yards and 1.8 yards per carry. What did you want them to do? Their longest pass play was a effectively a trick play. Picked them off twice and had another one or two that should have been picked. Could we have tightened up late in the game? Sure.

The Mercer numbers are not "strong data points." In fact, they aren't even correct. Mercer threw for more yards against ETSU (317), Morehead State (268), and Ole Miss (142) than they did against Furman.

Mercer passed for whopping 123 yards, 58 of which came on two plays right before half time to an All American wide receiver. Other than those two throws, the Bear's offense had a 65 passing yards the rest of the game (despite trailing the entire contest). I have no idea why anyone would complain about our defensive effort against Mercer.

I only looked at FCS scholarship teams. You proved my point that I mentioned when asked why didn’t throw more evivdenced by their huge passing game Saturday. As far as TTU goes yes they were behind but was never way behind until the last seven minutes so its not like they were desperate and had to throw the whole game.

[FUBeAR]

FWIW…

Furman’s Defensive Statistics / Rankings* vs. FCS Teams

3RD DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE = .321 / #16 FCS / #1 SoCon
4TH DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE = .273 / #12 FCS / #1 SoCon
FIRST DOWNS DEFENSE/GAME = 17 / #14 FCS / #1 SoCon
FUMBLES RECOVERED/GAME = 1 / #11 FCS / #1 SoCon
PASSES INTERCEPTED/GAME = 1.75 / #3 FCS / #1 SoCon
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED/GAME = 220.5 / #70 FCS / #5 SoCon
RED ZONE DEFENSE = .555 / #2 FCS / #1 SoCon
RUSHING DEFENSE = 111 YPG / #26 FCS / #1 SoCon
SCORING DEFENSE = 16.5 PPG / #10 FCS / #1 SoCon
TEAM PASSING EFFICIENCY DEFENSE = 117.97 / #19 FCS / #1 SoCon
TEAM SACKS/GAME = 1.25 / #98 FCS / #7 SoCon
TEAM TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME = 6.25 / #37 FCS / #2 SoCon
TOTAL DEFENSE = 331.5 YPG / #31 FCS / #2 SoCon
TURNOVERS GAINED/GAME = 2.75 / #4 FCS / #1 SoCon
TURNOVER MARGIN/GAME = 1.75 / #2 FCS / #1 SoCon

* Statistics & Rankings exclude the Furman @ South Carolina game, but do not reflect removal of non-FCS (FBS, D2, D3, NAIA, or Fake Teams) Statistics for any other FCS or SoCon Team. If you would like to improve this analysis by calculating those statistics / rankings for all SoCon and/or FCS Teams, have at it. Otherwise, FUBeAR sez … Talk to the screen.

[AstroDin]

^^
You can share your opinion, of course — but man, you twist numbers into weird ways to try to prove…
I'm not sure what.

As the season progresses, I think the Mercer win will prove to be a very good one. Mercer has CHatty at home this weekend, at Western on the 28th, and has Samford at home the last game of the season.

By the way, Chatty doesn't have a bye till after they play Furman, that's not until Nov. 11. That is a long season for the Mocs.

Monte said in his excellent blog post that Furman knows it didn't play up to its capabilities. I think the Citadel game was a needed wake-up call. I expect a great week of prep, and who knows what wrinkles the DINS will have for Samford.

[The Jackal]

I mean, sure, but there's some context that is completely absent from the raw numbers.

For instance, you fail to mention that Tennessee Tech attempted 42 passes and averaged only 5 yards an attempt while trailing the entire game. You also fail to mention that 3 of those 42 attempts were picked off and 2 were returned for touchdowns. It's wild to me to criticize pass defense when the defense scored more touchdowns on passing plays than the opposing offense did.

The Citadel rushed for 39 yards and 1.8 yards per carry. What did you want them to do? Their longest pass play was a effectively a trick play. Picked them off twice and had another one or two that should have been picked. Could we have tightened up late in the game? Sure.

The Mercer numbers are not "strong data points." In fact, they aren't even correct. Mercer threw for more yards against ETSU (317), Morehead State (268), and Ole Miss (142) than they did against Furman.

Mercer passed for whopping 123 yards, 58 of which came on two plays right before half time to an All American wide receiver. Other than those two throws, the Bear's offense had a 65 passing yards the rest of the game (despite trailing the entire contest). I have no idea why anyone would complain about our defensive effort against Mercer.

I only looked at FCS scholarship teams. You proved my point that I mentioned when asked why didn’t throw more evivdenced by their huge passing game Saturday. As far as TTU goes yes they were behind but was never way behind until the last seven minutes so its not like they were desperate and had to throw the whole game.

Look, I get you have a narrative. I understand I will never convince you otherwise. But at least be intellectually honest with this stuff.

I'm not here blowing smoke and suggesting that our pass defense has been nails all season. It hasn't. But to act like it is just fumbling around back there is just misleading.

[HKB60]

As I stated before, I understand why they rotate our D lineman every 3 or 4 plays to keep them "fresh" but it makes it harder for them to pick up tendencies from the opposing O-line and harder for them to pick up some kind of rhythm. Leave the first unit in for longer periods of time and rest them as needed. They know when they need to rest. This is especially true when rushing the QB in a passing play. Let the first team play more!

[apaladin]

I guess I did a poor job of making my point, my apologies. I was trying to point out we have given up a lot of completions and yards against what appears to be some very poor passing teams and the next week 2 weeks will see a much, much higher level of passing attacks and will have to tighten up the next 2 weeks. Again the O needs to help the D by keeping the other O’s on the sidelne and somehow, someway get some pressure on the qbs.
We were not the only team that was a heavy favorite and won ugly, CU and the real USC come to mind.

[The Jackal]

I guess I did a poor job of making my point, my apologies. I was trying to point out we have given up a lot of completions and yards against what appears to be some very poor passing teams and the next week 2 weeks will see a much, much higher level of passing attacks and will have to tighten up the next 2 weeks. Again the O needs to help the D by keeping the other O’s on the sidelne and somehow, someway get some pressure on the qbs.
We were not the only team that was a heavy favorite and won ugly, CU and the real USC come to mind.

To some degree you aren't wrong, but there's always context. Teams struggle to run the ball on our defense, so they throw. They are trailing, so they throw a lot. They complete more passes because they are throwing more. We are usually up by several scores, so our defense is usually fine letting teams catch passes, get tackled, and drain the clock.

Samford's a different animal, but I think we'll be ready for them.