stonemd wrote: ↑Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:26 am
If we win out and wofford beats etsu we have a 3 way tie for first. Since all 3 teams are 1-1 against each other it would go to points allowed to each other. We lost to etsu 27-29 and beat wofford 34-14 giving up 43 points. So I would like wofford to beat etsu and score 17 or more and give up 10 or more - which is farly likely.
The full picture is more complicated than this limited scenario. Here’s what I have ciphered out as each SoCon Team’s CURRENT path to the SoCon Championship AND the autobid...
Definition of “control their own destinies” - these Teams... ‘only’ ... have to win all of their remaining SoCon games and they will be the SoCon Champs AND get the Playoff Autobid...
CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINIES
* ETSU - 4-0 - If they beat WC, WCU, MU, & SU = 8-0 - Solo Champs + Autobid
* MU - 2-1 - If they beat WCU, WC, ETSU, UTC, & FU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/ETSU + Autobid. Outright Champ if ETSU loses 1+ ‘other’ game
STRAIGHTFORWARD PATH, BUT ALSO NEED 1 OTHER TEAM TO LOSE
* FU - 2-1 - If they beat SU, CIT, UTC, VMI, & MU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/ETSU, but no Autobid unless ETSU loses 2+
* WC - 3-1 - If they beat ETSU, MU, SU, & WCU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ, but needs FU to lose 1+ to secure Autobid
COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING 2 OR 3 OTHER TEAMS
* UTC - 3-2 - If they beat VMI, FU, & MU = 6-2 - Would need ETSU to lose 3+ AND WC to lose 2+ to get Autobid
* SU - 2-2 - If they beat FU, WC, CIT, ETSU = 6-2 - Would need ETSU to lose 1 ‘other’ game AND need MU to lose 2+, and need UTC to lose 1+ to get Autobid
EXTREMELY COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING MULTIPLE TEAMS; PATH MAY NOT EVEN BE POSSIBLE
* WCU - 1-3 - If they beat MU, ETSU, CIT, & WC = 5-3 - Would need ETSU to lose 2+ ‘other’ games AND MU & WC to lose 1+ ‘other’ game, AND FU to lose 3+ AND need UTC & SU to lose 2+
* CIT - 1-3 - If they beat VMI, FU, WCU, & SU = 5-3 - Would need ETSU to lose (all) 4 AND need MU AND UTC to lose 2+ AND would need FU to lose 1 ‘other’ game AND would need WC to lose 3+
NO PATH
* VMI - 0-5 - Cannot win SoCon nor get Autobid