2014 and 2015 recruiting classes

[gofurman]

Well I posted a long diatribe about the math behind the depth chart and it disappeared. So here is the condensed version.

We have 63 scholarships. We have 44 spots on the 2-deep. Assuming we sign 16 kids a year, redshirt half our freshman, lose a 2-3 kids per class to transfer, etc, and some recruits just don't "work out"....here is how a "stable" roster should look. (this assumes no partials which is a bad assumption)

Sr - 13
Jr - 13
So - 13
RS Fr - 8
True Fr - 16 (8 RS and 8 play)

With 44 + 2 specialists on 2-deep it's unreasonable to expect more than half the 2-deep to be Jr's and Sr's. Assuming a couple of the Sr's and Jr's just don't work out athletically, probably the best we can hope for is half the 2-deep to be those upper classman. The other half will always be Sophs, RS Fr and a smattering of True Fr.

It just reinforces to me the importance on hitting on a majority of signed recruits, finding a couple diamonds in the rough among walk-ons (Bo McKinney appears to maybe be one) and figuring out how to share a couple of full rides and get 4-6 quality kids for the price of 2-3 scholarships.

Here is what our 2-deep looks like this year

Sr's - 7
Jr - 11
So - 18
RS Fr - 5
Tr Fr - 3 (doesn't include DeJuan Bell or Corey Watkins who are listed 3rd on depth chart)

Great math! My nerd self loves it. Only thing I would note is would a mature program possibly redshirt more than half the new freshman ? I would a thought so

Just asking. I wonder how many freshman redshirt at JMU and NDSU etc?

[apaladin]

Y'all are giving me a headache.

[FUBeAR]

Well I posted a long diatribe about the math behind the depth chart and it disappeared. So here is the condensed version.

We have 63 scholarships. We have 44 spots on the 2-deep. Assuming we sign 16 kids a year, redshirt half our freshman, lose a 2-3 kids per class to transfer, etc, and some recruits just don't "work out"....here is how a "stable" roster should look. (this assumes no partials which is a bad assumption)

Sr - 13
Jr - 13
So - 13
RS Fr - 8
True Fr - 16 (8 RS and 8 play)

With 44 + 2 specialists on 2-deep it's unreasonable to expect more than half the 2-deep to be Jr's and Sr's. Assuming a couple of the Sr's and Jr's just don't work out athletically, probably the best we can hope for is half the 2-deep to be those upper classman. The other half will always be Sophs, RS Fr and a smattering of True Fr.

It just reinforces to me the importance on hitting on a majority of signed recruits, finding a couple diamonds in the rough among walk-ons (Bo McKinney appears to maybe be one) and figuring out how to share a couple of full rides and get 4-6 quality kids for the price of 2-3 scholarships.

Here is what our 2-deep looks like this year

Sr's - 7
Jr - 11
So - 18
RS Fr - 5
Tr Fr - 3 (doesn't include DeJuan Bell or Corey Watkins who are listed 3rd on depth chart)

Thought you might be interested in comparing those numbers to the rest of the SoCon. I made these as "Apples-to-Apples" as possible - some schools have a few more on their 2-Deep (P, K, LS) and some 'start' 12 on Offense (Chatt & CIT)...but if you want to compare, this is a pretty good data set. I threw Elon in there too...

Chatt
Sr 11
Jr 18
So 13
RS Fr 3
True Fr 4

ETSU
Sr 17
Jr 17
So 10
RS Fr 4
True Fr 1

Mercer
Sr 14
Jr 10
So 14
RS Fr 4
True Fr 5

Samford
Sr 14
Jr 14
So 10
RS Fr 4
True Fr 5

The CIT
Sr 11
Jr 14
So 10
RS Fr 6
True Fr 7

VMI
Sr 6
Jr 10
So 21
RS Fr 3
True Fr 7

WCU
Sr 11
Jr 9
So 11
RS Fr 7
True Fr 9

Wofford
Sr 11
Jr 18
So 12
RS Fr 3
True Fr 2

Elon
Sr 13
Jr 11
So 11
RS Fr 3
True Fr 8

[Paul C]

thanks FuBear......most of the top programs have 25-30 Sr's and Jr's (Elon 25, Woff 29, Samford 28)......we have 18

[AstroDin]

Samford 11 senior starters
Wofford 7 senior starters

Based on the Elon game… true freshmen (7) that played quite a few plays;
Grainger, Bell, Watkins, Miller on offense
Wilkins, Hodge, Gilby on defense, now subtract Giilby add Hackett.

[FUBeAR]

thanks FuBear......most of the top programs have 25-30 Sr's and Jr's (Elon 25, Woff 29, Samford 28)......we have 18

Noticed that disparity too when I was posting this data...good point.

ETSU = 34*
Chattanooga = 29
Wofford = 29
Samford = 28
Citadel = 25
Mercer = 24
WCU = 20
Furman = 18
VMI = 16

* Still Skewed by Start-up Numbers

[AstroDin]

geez ^^ we are a young team

[JohnW]

Didn't closely read all the posts so this may have been mentioned already. If not then it's important to remember that although we have 63 total scholarships these maybe spread over 85 players. In a perfect world this would be five classes of 17, reality is more in a range of 15 to 20, assuming normal attrition, including RS JRs not returning for their fifth year.

Furman is unbalanced between SRs and JRs and younger players. While necessary with the new staff it will have to be addressed in the coming years or it will hinder player development and put us into a boom or bust cycle. The OL is a good case in point as Coach Hendricks has been limited to only a couple of OL in his first classes because of the large number of underclassmen he inherited.

[FUBeAR]

geez ^^ we are a young team

So let's look at it the other way...# of FR and/or R-FR in the 2 deep (assumption is more is 'worse' in this metric...not always true, but definitely means "younger")

ETSU = 5*
Wofford = 5
Chattananooga = 7
Furman = 8
Mercer = 9
Samford = 9
VMI = 10
Citadel = 13
WCU = 16

Elon = 11

* Probably 'skewed' downward by start-up status

So...when we look at the # of "More Experienced" vs. # of "Less Experienced and if we think the former represents "Leadership" and the latter represents "Youth," then it's probably not completely accurate to characterize Furman as a "Young Team," but, instead, it is more accurate to characterize the Paladins as (something like) "a Team that is comparatively light in Experienced Leadership."

...which I think is pretty darn close to what Coach Hendrix has said/is saying when he talks about Players needing to step up and Lead. While FR and R-FR can do that, I think he is looking at 7-10 of those 18 So's on the 2-Deep to ACT and PLAY like Jr's & Sr's.

So...if we accept that premise and want to look more closely at it, these are the young men that will need to 'step up' and be those LEADERS BEYOND THEIR YEARS in the remaining games (not saying that any one or all of them haven't stepped up already - not my point / not at all what I'm trying to say) for this Team to achieve its goals and our hopes.

OFFENSE
TE 18 JAKE WALKER ...(6-4, 228, So.)
LT 55 BO LAYTON...(6-7, 287, R-So.)
C 66 REED KROEBER ...(6-4, 286, R-So.)
RG 71 JORDAN HARRIS...(6-4, 288, R-So.)
SE 11 CAM BURNETTE...(6-2, 205, So.)

TE 16 Dillon Vann ...(6-3, 215, R-So.)
LT 74 Cody Wyatt...(6-2, 268, R-So.)
C 61 Cole Neely...(6-3, 273, So.)
FLK 10 Avery Armstrong...(6-1, 190, R-So.)
TB 22 Devin Wynn...(6-0, 203, So.)

DEFENSE
WLB 23 ELIJAH MCKOY...(6-2, 225, So.)

DE 40 Dru Seabrook...(6-3, 242, R-So.)
NG 95 Parker Stokes ...(6-1, 270, So.)
WLB 29 Jack Owen...(6-3, 222, R-So.)
LC 2 Darius Kearse...(5-10, 174, So.)
SS 20 DiMarcus Clay...(5-9, 174, So.)
FS 46 Patrick Wells...(6-0, 189, R-So.)

SPECIALIST
PK 17 GRAYSON ATKINS...(5-10, 187, So.)

Looks like a darn good list to me. Currently 7 Starters on the list and that is the 'minimum' number needed to 'match' the Experienced Leadership of, as PaulC said, "the top programs."

I believe this group of young men can and will do exactly as Coach Hendrix has said (assuming I understood him correctly) that we need them to do.

[AstroDin]

great way to look at it FuBear. I would go ahead and put a highlight on Devin Wynn… I loved what he said in his post game interview. Of course the same can be said for McKoy.