SoCon/FCS Week 12

[The Jackal]

Here's Jackal's SoCon "rooting" scenario:

Big Sky: I think we pull for Montana State over Montana. Assuming Furman beats Wofford, I think it is more likely that voters will jump Montana over Furman than Montana State over Furman.

Sacramento State plays UC Davis. I don't believe there's anyway Sacramento doesn't make the field, but UC Davis is clearly on the bubble, so we pull for the Hornets to knock out the Aggies.

Idaho plays Idaho State. Definitely pulling for the Bengals here.

Big South/OVC: We pull for Charleston Southern over Gardner Webb. The Runnin' Bulldogs will lock up the auto bid with a win over the Buccaneers. GWU, though, already has 4 losses and likely would not be an at large bid if they are not the autobid.

At the same time, Samford can really do it's conference mates a favor by beating UT-Martin on Saturday. The Bulldogs have underperformed this year, but with GWU the favorite to win the autobid, Samford can really help out WCU/Mercer/UTC by knocking off a potential second Big South/OVC team. UT-M is 8-2, but their at large resume would take a large hit if they were to lose to the 5th place SoCon team.

CAA: The CAA is a Thunderdome right now. There are four teams tied for first, which is what you get when you have dozens of conference teams and not everyone plays one another.

Richmond has the weakest resume. They play an underperforming but still "ok" William & Mary team that is probably also playing for an outside shot at the playoffs. Richmond has a loss to a 4-win MEAC team (Morgan State). I believe they have one win over a team with a winning record. We pull for the Tribe and get Richmond out of the autobid conversation.

I think we also pull for Delaware. The Blue Hens appear to be a lock for the post season. They play Villanova, another team with an impressive record that really hasn't beaten a good team all season. Get Nova to 8-3 and put their resume up against Mercer, UTC, and WCU.

UAlbany is playing an sometimes dangerous Monmouth. The Danes have already reached 8 wins, and I guess get to play 12 games by virtue of scheduling Hawaii. I'm all for giving more CAA teams more losses.

Missouri Valley: We know SDSU is the autobid.

North Dakota State plays Northern Iowa. NDSU's resume is weak, but I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving out the Bison. Northern Iowa is a lot iffier, so I guess we pull for the Bison to knock UNI out of the at large conversation.

North Dakota has maintained a top 15 rankings despite doing virtually nothing impressive all season. They play Illinois State. With a top 15 ranking for UND, I suppose we need to pull for them as it seems unlikey they are not going to be an at large team, and hopefully they'll eliminate ISU from the conversation.

Southern Illinois is a bubble team playing Indiana State. Easy pull here for the Sycamores.

NEC: The winner of the Merrimack and Duquesne game is the autobid. It doesn't make any difference really who wins that one, as the NEC won't get a second bid.

I think we pull for Duquesne merely because they are in Pennsylvania and Merrimack is in Massachusetts and that may help our playoff draw.

Patriot: Pull for Lafayette, who is the autobid with a win over Lehigh. The Patriot is typically a one-bid league, and Holy Cross is likely going to be sitting there at 7-4 with a win over Georgetown. A 7-4 HC doesn't jump any of the SoCon teams, IMO.

Pioneer: Pull for Davidson and Butler. Drake has the inside track for the autobid with a win, and while the Pioneer is a one-bid league, adding Davidson, a Carolina school, to the playoff mix may help Furman's draw.

Southland: Nicholls has locked up the autobid. Incarnate Word is on the road against Houston Christian, a team with a reasonable shot at beating them. UIW does not have a strong resume, has a non-counter forfeit from Northwestern State, and could potentially steal a bid as an at large, so SoCon folks need to be big HCU Husky fans Saturday.

UAC: Austin Peay and Central Arkansas play for their bid. AP is likely in the playoffs regardless, but UCA may need help. The Bears are 7-3, with, I believe, no ranked wins. We pull for the Govs.

[The Jackal]

One other big elephant in the room is North Carolina Central, which was cruising to the MEAC championship and place in the Celebration Bowl. They lost last week in embarrassing fashion.

Depending on results this week, NCCU could still be the MEAC champ. However, does the committee leave off a 9-2 MEAC school, who has played two D2 schools and their best win is over 5-5 Elon?

Perhaps more than any other team, NCCU is one that can really upset one of the SoCon teams on selection Sunday. If they are in the field, almost assuredly one of the SoCon teams will not be.

[Davemeister]

That one SoCon team won't be us. I say "tough titty" to whoever it is.

[The Jackal]

Realized that this strength of schedule argument is playing out in FBS as well.

Massey has UGA as 53 on strength of schedule. Ohio State 46. Michigan 67. Alabama and Texas are 3 and 4.

If we buy the Big Sky argument, we should ignore the losses by Alabama and Texas and put them ahead of Ohio State and Georgia.

[FUBeAR]

Realized that this strength of schedule argument is playing out in FBS as well.

Massey has UGA as 53 on strength of schedule. Ohio State 46. Michigan 67. Alabama and Texas are 3 and 4.

If we buy the Big Sky argument, we should ignore the losses by Alabama and Texas and put them ahead of Ohio State and Georgia.

As FUBeAR only follows FCS Football, here’s how that post reads to him…

Realized that this strength of schedule argument is playing out in FBS as well.

Massey has Ар ю сириесли аскинг зис квэсчен? Кан'т билив ю! Ит из импоссибл ту райт Инглиш ин Сириллик! Дазн'т верк зэт вэй!

If we buy the Big Sky argument, Ай лав зис скрипт, плиз ду нот руин ит фор ми бай юзинг ит ту райт ин а лангвидж зэт дазн'т сут зис скрипт! Сэнк ю.

Seriously.

[The Jackal]

Point being, the more I think about it, the less I'm compelled by the "strength of schedule" argument.

[FUBeAR]

Point being, the more I think about it, the less I'm compelled by the "strength of schedule" argument.

Yep - it’s voodoo math. There are ninety-leven different ways to calculate strength of schedule …

https://thedatajocks.com/computing-str ... -schedule/

…and each of the developers of these ‘systems’ fairly freely admits they are flawed, but because we all grew up with our “Riddle me this Magic 8 Balls,” we’re searching for simple, single answers to complex questions for which there are no simple, single answers. We’re happy to accept ‘answers’ we know may be deeply flawed and just pretend they aren’t flawed, even though we KNOW they are deeply flawed.

We (whoever “we” might be) SHOULD consider SoS in our deliberations for rankings and playoff selections and seeding, BUT we should be fully aware of the limitations of the specific methodology or methodologies we have chosen to consider and weigh the ‘answers’ it provides vs. more objective data such as on-field results.

[The Jackal]

It certainly seems like it is a data point, but not a "fact" in any meaningful or objective sense.

Furman's strength of schedule (however defined) does nothing to explain whether Furman is a good football team or of quality sufficient to warrant a top 5 ranking.

In conferences where everyone doesn't play everyone, the strength of schedule can be misleading. Montana State, for instance, doesn't play winless Northern Colorado. MSU's strength of schedule is therefore buoyed by not playing the worst team in it's own conference - a team it in all likelihood would defeat.

I raise the FBS issue just to highlight the debate there. Georgia and Ohio State are the 1 and 2 teams even with a much lower "strength of schedule" because they are beating every team they play.

In the FCS context, I can see Montana jumping Furman not due to strength of schedule, but because a win would give Montana four ranked wins to Furman's three. If Montana State wins, they would also have three ranked wins, but are saddled with two losses. Furman's zero FCS losses should trump Montana States' two FCS losses.

[FUBeAR]

It certainly seems like it is a data point, but not a "fact" in any meaningful or objective sense.

Furman's strength of schedule (however defined) does nothing to explain whether Furman is a good football team or of quality sufficient to warrant a top 5 ranking.

In conferences where everyone doesn't play everyone, the strength of schedule can be misleading. Montana State, for instance, doesn't play winless Northern Colorado. MSU's strength of schedule is therefore buoyed by not playing the worst team in it's own conference - a team it in all likelihood would defeat.

I raise the FBS issue just to highlight the debate there. Georgia and Ohio State are the 1 and 2 teams even with a much lower "strength of schedule" because they are beating every team they play.

In the FCS context, I can see Montana jumping Furman not due to strength of schedule, but because a win would give Montana four ranked wins to Furman's three. If Montana State wins, they would also have three ranked wins, but are saddled with two losses. Furman's zero FCS losses should trump Montana States' two FCS losses.

Well…we also have to remember “Ranked Wins” are ranked because a group of questionably qualified and/or questionably ‘engaged’ people subjectively assessed a group of Football Teams. FUBeAR is almost 100% certain that almost all of these subjective assessors utilize some version of calculated SoS to, at least, inform the opinions they deliver in their assessments….rankings.

We had some fantastic examples of SoS and Rankings fallacies playing out in the 2022 Playoffs. FUBeAR isn’t going to research / provide all of the historical details, but the gist of the exposure of the fallacy revolves around the Southland and the Big Sky Conferences with transitive relationships to compare SoCon Teams with Big Sky Teams…

Big Sky - super high SoS’s - bunch of Teams - bunch of high seeds in Playoffs
Southland - very low SoS’s - only 2 Teams ‘worthy’ - 1 of those moderately Seeded
SoCon - low SoS’s - only 2 Teams ‘worthy’ - 1 of those lowly Seeded

Southland #2 beat Big Sky #3
SoCon #1 beat Southland #2

SoCon #2 comes within an eyelash of defeating Southland #1
Southland #1 defeats Big Sky #1

But… Poll voters (to some extent) and SoS Calculations, even more so, IGNORE these results …. Continue trumpeting the superiority of the Big Sky while disparaging the strength of the Southland and the SoCon.

It’s complete BS!!!

[The Jackal]

Here's Hero Sports prediction of the bracket.

In what seems like an annual event, the Mocs do just enough to get left out. That'd be a great bracket for Furman, who could let Mercer go beat Montana in the second round and then host and beat Idaho and Montana State.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-5-bzbz/

[Flagman]

While it might be to our advantage to get Mercer, what’s more likely to happen is a Montana State upset of Montana is a third round rematch. Then MontanaState would have to come to Travelers Rest.

[FUBeAR]

Can we get...

NDSU in Paladin Stadium in Round 2
Montana State in the Shadow of Paris Mountain in the Quarterfinals, and
Montana pinned deep in the Wicked Weed EndZone in the Semi's...

....and then meet up with Mercer in Frisco?

If that happens, FUBeAR would probably go ahead and send out invitations to y'all to come to his funeral celebration in Textile Hall in late January of '24...because he will have died a happy FUBeAR!!!

[The Jackal]

Beyond Furman, this year presents a real opportunity for the SoCon to start getting back in the national conversation.

Furman likely will be a seed, and potentially a high seed. High seeds have a much easier path through the playoffs, usually.

Western Carolina and Mercer would be a lot of trouble to prepare for in a week for any team. I'd love to see the Cats' high octane offense go up to Fargo.

[FUBeAR]

Beyond Furman, this year presents a real opportunity for the SoCon to start getting back in the national conversation.

Furman likely will be a seed, and potentially a high seed. High seeds have a much easier path through the playoffs, usually.

Western Carolina and Mercer would be a lot of trouble to prepare for in a week for any team. I'd love to see the Cats' high octane offense go up to Fargo.

That sounds good...but you know the WCU's and their wonderful Fans were VERY upset at 1 of our LB's for clapping his hands. Even after the Ref's did call a Disconcerting Signals penalty, they were going nuts over the lack of integrity, ethics, and fair play demonstrated by Furman's Players and specifically by that known-doer-of-dastardly-deeds, Coach Hendrix.

As much as that set them off, do you really think they'll be able to run their Offense inside the housing of a running jet engine?

And, FUBeAR can tell you from 1st-hand experience, Coach Bell has excellent hearing - rabbit ears - one might say...hears everything fans might toss out there.

FUBeAR, honestly, would hate it...but he could see WCU going to Fargo, coughing up hairballs, pissing down their legs, and pretty much going into cardiac arrest as a Team in that hostile environment. Hope they would have enough EMT's on hand with feline certifications.

[apaladin]

While it might be to our advantage to get Mercer, what’s more likely to happen is a Montana State upset of Montana is a third round rematch. Then MontanaState would have to come to Travelers Rest.

Greenville.
Furman University
3300 Poinsett Highway
Greenville, SC 29313